The first Feels Like 45 Podcast is up! Check it out if you have not already, it is always worth a listen. Here is the first edition of the podcast notes:
Quick Hit Notes and Timestamps
[00:00:00] - Returning to the podcast after a summer break
[00:00:27] - Introducing the "Feels Like 45" podcast and the hosts
[00:00:51] - Changes to the podcast format for the 2024 season
[00:01:33] - Hosts' busy summer schedules and the need for a break
[00:03:01] - Discussing the new format and reasons behind it
[00:07:50] - Excitement for the 2024 Oklahoma State football season
[00:10:04] - Identifying the top offensive player for Oklahoma State
[00:14:48] - Praise for center Joe Michalski and the offensive line
[00:16:48] - Identifying the top defensive player for Oklahoma State
[00:18:02] - Discussing the potential defensive scheme changes
[00:20:45] - Discussing defensive coordinator and scheme options
[00:21:02] - Importance of the nickel/slot corner position
[00:21:33] - Potential tweaks to the 3-3-5 defense
[00:22:02] - Discussing Kendall Daniels and Colin Oliver's roles
[00:22:40] - Selecting Korey Black as a top player
[00:23:57] - Importance of the defensive line in the 3-3 stack
[00:26:45] - Discussing offensive X-factors, including Alan Bowman and Kasey Dunn
[00:30:42] - Tight end position as an X-factor
[00:33:49] – Jaleel Johnson as a defensive X-factor
[00:35:34] - Lyrik Rawls as a defensive X-factor
[00:37:37] - Tim Duffy as a defensive X-factor
[00:37:48] - Discussing defensive pass game coordinator Tim Duffy and secondary players
[00:39:13] - Discussing breakout player De’Zhaun Stribling
[00:40:00] - Discussing potential breakout player Cam Epps
[00:41:24] - Discussing injured receiver Lofton
[00:44:59] - Discussing the team's biggest strength as experience and offensive line continuity
[00:48:12] - Discussing the team's biggest weakness as the defensive line
[00:51:21] - Discussing potential position rotations on defense
[00:55:47] - Discussing newcomers who could make the biggest impact, including Isaia Glass and Kobe Hilton
[00:57:49] - Discussing potential sleeper player Trent Howland
[00:58:41] - Trent Howland, a 6'3" 240 lb RB, could shine behind a deep OL
[00:59:19] - Excitement for AJ Green and Ayo Shotomide-King, potential difference-makers at WR
[01:00:09] - Gavin Freeman, an electric playmaker, could make an instant impact
[01:00:40] - Importance of the offensive line and receiver position battles
[01:01:32] - Confidence in the running game and depth of the roster
[01:02:11] - Lack of clear position battles, focus on the secondary and offensive line
[01:05:34] - Kansas State game as the most important and dangerous on the schedule
[01:10:01] - Cole Birmingham, the left guard, as a potential surprise performer
[01:11:17] - Optimism for Alan Bowman to have a bounce-back season at QB
[01:15:44] - Listing of surefire all-conference players and potential sleepers
[01:19:42] – Ollie Gordon as the potential most valuable player for Oklahoma State
[01:21:04] - Prediction of a 10-2 regular season and playoff appearance for Oklahoma State
[01:25:23] - Oklahoma State's quarterback, offense, and defense
[01:25:32] - South Dakota State's offense and defense
[01:25:49] - Prediction of Oklahoma State's win over South Dakota State
[01:26:12] - Confidence in Oklahoma State's win
[01:26:24] - Respect for South Dakota State's program
[01:26:39] - Potential for an upset
[01:27:07] - Comparison to Georgia's win over Alabama
[01:27:20] - Athleticism and talent mismatch
[01:27:49] - Possibility of Oklahoma State's mistakes
[01:28:02] - Oklahoma State's past upsets
[01:28:39] - Comparison to last season's team
[01:29:02] - Predictions
[01:29:17] - Athleticism and secondary advantage for Oklahoma State
[01:29:28] - South Dakota State's offensive changes
Long Form Detailed Notes
Dustin and Cade discuss their summer breaks and the return of the podcast. They had a busy summer with travel, but are excited to be back and have received positive feedback from listeners about the show's return. [00:00:27]
The format of the podcast will be changing this season. Dustin explains that they will not be able to commit to a Tuesday release every week due to their schedules, and may have to release episodes on Wednesday or even Thursday or Friday at times. [00:03:47]
Additionally, the deep dives on opposing teams will be shortened, as Dustin and Cade found it too time-consuming and not as valuable as just focusing on Oklahoma State and their own team. The previews will be more like score predictions. [00:05:08]
Cade is excited for this season, as he feels the roster has been built up over the past three years, with the offensive line improving and the team having a lot of skill talent. He suggests they could hang it up if Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 and makes a playoff run. (joking) [00:07:15]
For their superlatives, Dustin names Ollie Gordon as the sure-thing offensive player of the year, with Stribling as a dark horse candidate if teams focus on stopping the run. Dustin also highlights center Joe Michalski as a potential standout on the offensive line. [00:10:19]
On the defensive side, Cade believes Nick Martin is the top defensive player, but also sees Kendall Daniels as a potential elite linebacker, depending on the defensive scheme. They discuss the team's potential use of a 4-2-5 or 3-3-5 defense. [00:16:48]
Dustin notes that the team may experiment with different defensive schemes early in the non-conference schedule, but hopes they don't abandon the 3-3-5 defense that was brought in, as the personnel may fit that scheme better. [00:20:30]
Cade expresses concern that the team may tinker too much with the defensive scheme in the non-conference games, rather than committing to one approach. However, he acknowledges that the personnel should ultimately dictate the defensive scheme. [00:20:42]
They agree that the first few non-conference games will be a good test for the defense, as they face teams that run the ball well. Dustin is interested to see how the 3-3-5 handles those opponents. [00:20:24]
Overall, Cade and Dustin are excited for the upcoming season and the potential of this Oklahoma State team, while also acknowledging the need to adapt the podcast format to their busy schedules. [00:07:00]
If one defensive scheme is working much better, it may be best to stick with it. However, Nardo should not abandon the 3-3-5 defense entirely after just one year, as the personnel may fit that scheme well. The nickel/slot corner position, likely manned by Cam Epps and Kobe Hilton, will be crucial. The safeties may play closer to the slot this season, rather than deep coverage. Some tweaks to the 3-3-5 defense are likely, as the players have indicated they are playing closer to the line of scrimmage. [00:21:02]
Kendall Daniels and Colin Oliver can potentially play both linebacker and "Leo" roles. If Oliver is used primarily as a pass rusher, his impact could be significant, as seen in his freshman season. The coaching staff will need to determine the best fit for each player. Korey Black's ability to eliminate the opposing team's top receiver without safety help could be a major asset for the defense. [00:22:18]
The defensive line struggled against the run last season, with several players underperforming. The unit also failed to generate consistent pressure, which may have been exacerbated by the 3-3-5 scheme. For the 3-3 front to be successful, the defensive line, particularly the defensive ends, will need to improve significantly. [00:24:19]
On the offensive side, Alan Bowman's development as the starting quarterback is a key X-factor. His ability to limit turnovers and execute the offense efficiently will be crucial for the unit's success. Offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn also faces an X-factor, as he must effectively utilize the team's improved skill position talent and offensive line to create a dynamic, unpredictable offense. [00:27:03]
The tight end position is another X-factor, as the team must replace the production and blocking of Josiah Johnson. The transfer Tyler Foster, along with Quentin Stewart and freshman Josh Ford, will need to step up and fill that role effectively, as it is a key component of the run game. [00:30:48]
On the defensive side, Jaleel Johnson's ability to win one-on-one pass-rushing battles and generate pressure without blitzes could significantly impact the 3-3-5 defense. His performance will be crucial in determining the success of the defensive scheme. [00:33:57]
Lyrik Rawls' health and transition to the Rover position are also important X-factors. His range and coverage skills could provide valuable support to the secondary, especially if the defensive line can improve its run defense. [00:34:37]
Additionally, defensive pass game coordinator Tim Duffy's ability to put the safeties, such as Rawls and Trey Rucker, in favorable coverage situations will be crucial, as their strengths may lie more in tackling than pure coverage ability. [00:37:52]
The development of the defensive ends, particularly Xavier Ross, Sean Brown, and Jaleel Johnson, will be a key factor in determining the success of the 3-3-5 defense. Their ability to win one-on-one battles and generate consistent pressure could be the linchpin for the scheme's effectiveness. [00:24:06]
Overall, the team's X-factors span both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, with the quarterback, offensive coordinator, tight end position, and various defensive players all playing crucial roles in the team's potential success this season. [00:27:00]
The defensive pass game coordinator, Tim Duffy, needs to coach up Trey Rucker and Lyric Rawls, as they have shown coverage lapses in the past. They may need to simplify the coverage responsibilities for these players. [00:37:48]
Jean Stribling is the obvious breakout player on offense. His athleticism is off the charts, and he showed his potential in the first four games last season. [00:39:36]
On defense, Cam Epps is the best safety on the team, but Kobe Hilton has been impressive in fall camp, and they may split the snaps. Injuries to players like Bryce Drummond, AJ Green, and Lofton have opened up opportunities for other players. [00:40:00]
The biggest strength of this team is the overall experience and continuity, particularly on the offensive line and at linebacker. The offensive line has depth and experience, while the linebacker corps is loaded with players like Oliver Martin, Kendall Daniels, Justin Wright, and Jeff Robertson. [00:45:16]
The biggest weakness of this team is the defensive line. The coaches' scheme and the on-field play of the defensive line were the root causes of the defense's issues last season. There are also questions about the defense's identity and whether they will be able to find their base in the non-conference games. [00:48:26]
Every position on the team, except for the Nick Martin and Colin Oliver’s linebacker spots, is likely to see rotation in-game, with multiple players getting snaps. This includes the secondary, where players like Cam Smith and Kale Smith will rotate at corner, and Trey Rucker, Kendall Daniels, and potentially Jeff Robertson and Ty Williams will rotate at safety. [00:51:44]
Isaia Glass, the transfer from Arizona State, is the newcomer most likely to make the biggest impact. He has impressed in spring practice and could potentially rotate in at the tackle position. [00:55:54]
On defense, Kobe Hilton is the newcomer most likely to make a significant impact, as he has the potential to contribute at any of the safety spots. Another sleeper option is Jaden Armstrong, who has an impressive physical build. [00:57:38]
Trent Howland, the 6'3" 240-pound defensive lineman, is another newcomer to watch. His size and physicality could be a game-changer, especially when paired with the fresh offensive line. [00:58:56]
The depth and experience of this team, particularly on the offensive line and at linebacker, are the biggest strengths. However, the defensive line and the defense's overall identity remain the biggest questions heading into the season. [00:45:16]
Everybody is raving about Ayo Shotomide-King, who is listed as the number two on the depth chart. There are concerns about him needing to put on some mass, similar to what Leon Johnson faced. But if he can truly be a difference-maker at that spot, it will be another feather in the cap for the coaching staff. [00:59:35]
Gavin Freeman is an electric playmaker who will likely return kicks. It will be interesting to see how they utilize him in the first four games he is eligible to play, and whether he is so good that they can't keep him off the field, similar to Leon Johnson. [01:00:09]
The offensive line depth is a key position battle, with Jason Brooks not starting despite being Oklahoma State's best offensive lineman previously. It will be fascinating to see how they manage all the talented offensive linemen. [01:03:51]
Additionally, there are around 12 receivers who could reasonably play, and it will be interesting to see who steps up outside of the top options like Brennan Presley and Stribling. [01:04:16]
The most important and dangerous game on Oklahoma State's schedule is likely the West Virginia game. After a tough opening stretch, that could be a trap game if they are undefeated up to that point. [01:06:50]
I believe Cole Birmingham, the left guard, is poised for a big season. He has been the healthiest he's been in three years, and the fact that he is the starter over Jason Brooks suggests he is primed for a strong year. [01:08:43]
I'm also cautiously optimistic about Alan Bowman having a good season. Despite some inconsistencies in the past, his experience and self-awareness of his weaknesses could lead to a solid year, and he may not be the reason Oklahoma State doesn't achieve their goals. [01:10:33]
Dustin and Cade’s surefire all-conference players for Oklahoma State are Ollie Gordon, Brennan Presley, Dalton Cooper, and the defensive players Nick Martin, Collin Oliver, and Korie Black. [01:16:04]
As sleepers, they have Cole Birmingham, Preston Wilson, Kaden Saunders, Jaden Bray, and potentially even Alan Bowman himself. [01:16:53]
Notes on the SDSU Matchup:
On defense, Oklahoma State runs a mix of man and zone coverage, but they may be a bit slower compared to South Dakota State's skill position players. However, the analyst believes Oklahoma State's offense will be too much for South Dakota State to handle, and they predict a 38-20 win for Oklahoma State. [01:25:32, 01:25:49]
The analyst has a lot of respect for South Dakota State's program, as they were able to take the FCS crown from North Dakota State. However, they believe Oklahoma State's athleticism and talent will present significant challenges that South Dakota State has not faced before. [01:27:07, 01:27:20]
The analyst acknowledges that upsets can happen, and Oklahoma State could come out flat and make mistakes, but they still believe Oklahoma State will win comfortably. They predict a 41-19 final score. [01:28:02, 01:29:02]
South Dakota State may have some new plays and wrinkles that Oklahoma State has not seen on film, and they may score early. However, the analyst believes Oklahoma State's defense will make the necessary adjustments. [01:29:40, 01:30:06]
Overall, the analyst believes Oklahoma State will treat this game like a conference opponent and not hold back, running their full offense and not playing conservatively. [01:30:23, 01:30:52]
Cade picks OSU to beat SDSU 38-20
Dustin picks OSU to beat SDSU 41-19
Season Picks
Cade picks OSU to go 11-1, lose to one of Utah, K State or WVU, win Big 12 championship, lose playoff quarterfinal.
Dustin picks OSU to go 10-2, lose to K State and one other suprise, win Big 12 championship, win playoff quarterfinal, lose in the semifinal.
