Wind & solar now producing more American electricity than coal for the first time

[Pokey]

Okay Donnyboy, I get that you are a climate change denier, so we’ll just have to disagree. I’m really interested in iron/air batteries for a possible investment opportunity. From what I’ve gleaned they could store and deliver power up to 100 hours without wind or solar radiation. This seems to indicate that their addition to wind/solar devices could make them more viable. You briefly mentioned contaminated water to deal with, then went off on an electrical argument that made no sense to me. If you could enlighten me on iron/air batteries and their usefulness or their problems I’d appreciate it. At night, when the gas turbines are coasting awaiting a load, could they not store wasted power also? If so, traditional and alternative power delivery could be improved considerably.

 

[Donnyboy]

I'm not a climate change denier. I'm a skeptic at the predictions as they routinely don't materialize. I am a skeptic of any science that says it's settled especially one that is so new....we are still challenging established laws of other fields of science but this one in it's infancy is already decided...that makes no sense. The answer to this as is with most all things is probably somewhere in the middle....the climate can be changing without mass extinction events to ourselves or other species...huge changes to ocean levels that swallow massive swaths of land etc. in our lifetime. The climate can be changing and we be responsible for some but not all of it. The climate can be changing and we can take steps that will actually work instead of throwing money at futile plans. I'm horrible in writing so I'm probably doing a poor job of saying what I want to....but I know what is being pushed now isn't gonna work so why are we racing towards a dead end when there are things that are soooo much better in every way. The black and white of drill baby drill or zero carbon or bust isn't helping anyone or the planet.

To the air/iron batteries themselves.....they have pros and cons. Pro and its a massive one up to 100 hour discharge....that's 25 times the best large scale battery stacks we have now. Massive massive pro. They are also much cheaper.....like 10-20% of current cost... and primarily made of abundant or recycled material and well air and water. Cons....they don't move as fast as the current batteries. I have mentioned charging only as a con for batteries at this point because I have been trying to impress the necessity of reliable bulk electric system and that is more than simply we need X MWs so here are X MWs. Current Lithium ion batteries can be used as resources while charging under normal grid operations....that's important to note when the grid is healthy....to provide down regulation (and actually get paid to charge) and help a little with localized over-energization or shoring up in low voltage times of transmission lines. Air/iron can do this but not nearly as well and thus you would have to relax standards for ancillary services...never a good thing no matter tech is involved. It's also my understanding....big caveat I haven't seen any verifiable data on this....that while they discharge longer they the don't discharge at 100% till dead that the delivered power tails off through the discharge. That being said 100 hours at say 80% on average is worlds better than 100% for 4. The water issue is air/iron batteries work off a reaction....essentially controlled rusting of the iron core. It's actually a mostly iron alloy so you end up with lots of water contaminated with heavy metals as by design the water is eating for lack of a better term the rods. All tech produces some waste but this process isn't completely clean from an environmental perspective. The other con is again the scale....when these manufactures say "utility scale" they are talking a single MW or stacks at larger numbers up to say 50-100....the application we are discussing is Bulk Electric System scale which is tens or hundreds of thousands depending on the interconnect. And these bad boys are big....some folks say about 3MW/acre some say more like 1.5MW/acre and that high is density stacks so a several story enclosure at that. As an investment.....money is being thrown at anything that doesn't fart carbon and batteries are what's sexy right now so billions will be pushed their way they will absolutely be installed at some point.....might as well grab a piece of that yourself because they are the better option overall. First pilot programs roll out soon it has legs.

To the power delivery could be improved considerably....yes but at what cost in both dollars and reliability. The North American power grid is largest machine in the world and our most important infrastructure asset. It has never been shut down and operates at over 99% reliability. A toaster in San Diego is connected to the power lines in Maine or across the border in Canada....and again it's never shut down. It can't. Our way of life depends on it. So additional capacity is always required, ancillary service product levels must be maintained, redundant paths of transmission resources, control areas, balancing authorities, reliability coordinators, voltage and frequency must be maintained within tight parameters it's a complex process. That isn't saying there haven't been regional blackouts for periods or times when like Texas during Uri it is working at rates in %70s but it's never stopped and is so good at it's job that we take it for granted. Reliability is what drives it....over profit over everything. I'm not sitting here saying we power companies are doing this as a labor of love we are most definitely trying to make money but the reliability rules are written first and foremost with regard to the lights always being on and you cannot break them or you are done. Not like a bank that breaks financial rules, makes a billion, and is fined 10% of that or pharma that makes a gozillion on a drug that kills 1000's then pays dimes on the dollar.....you mess with reliability and you lose your ability to connect, full stop. That's why I poo poo so much of this....not that I don't wish we couldn't get all of power from nature but because until we control it you can't count on it reliably....or we will have to overbuild at staggering rates to cover our worst blown assumptions or freak events.....we aren't going to have our cake and eat it too.

 

[Pokey]

I'm not a climate change denier. I'm a skeptic at the predictions as they routinely don't materialize. I am a skeptic of any science that says it's settled especially one that is so new....we are still challenging established laws of other fields of science but this one in it's infancy is already decided...that makes no sense. The answer to this as is with most all things is probably somewhere in the middle....the climate can be changing without mass extinction events to ourselves or other species...huge changes to ocean levels that swallow massive swaths of land etc. in our lifetime. The climate can be changing and we be responsible for some but not all of it. The climate can be changing and we can take steps that will actually work instead of throwing money at futile plans. I'm horrible in writing so I'm probably doing a poor job of saying what I want to....but I know what is being pushed now isn't gonna work so why are we racing towards a dead end when there are things that are soooo much better in every way. The black and white of drill baby drill or zero carbon or bust isn't helping anyone or the planet.

To the air/iron batteries themselves.....they have pros and cons. Pro and its a massive one up to 100 hour discharge....that's 25 times the best large scale battery stacks we have now. Massive massive pro. They are also much cheaper.....like 10-20% of current cost... and primarily made of abundant or recycled material and well air and water. Cons....they don't move as fast as the current batteries. I have mentioned charging only as a con for batteries at this point because I have been trying to impress the necessity of reliable bulk electric system and that is more than simply we need X MWs so here are X MWs. Current Lithium ion batteries can be used as resources while charging under normal grid operations....that's important to note when the grid is healthy....to provide down regulation (and actually get paid to charge) and help a little with localized over-energization or shoring up in low voltage times of transmission lines. Air/iron can do this but not nearly as well and thus you would have to relax standards for ancillary services...never a good thing no matter tech is involved. It's also my understanding....big caveat I haven't seen any verifiable data on this....that while they discharge longer they the don't discharge at 100% till dead that the delivered power tails off through the discharge. That being said 100 hours at say 80% on average is worlds better than 100% for 4. The water issue is air/iron batteries work off a reaction....essentially controlled rusting of the iron core. It's actually a mostly iron alloy so you end up with lots of water contaminated with heavy metals as by design the water is eating for lack of a better term the rods. All tech produces some waste but this process isn't completely clean from an environmental perspective. The other con is again the scale....when these manufactures say "utility scale" they are talking a single MW or stacks at larger numbers up to say 50-100....the application we are discussing is Bulk Electric System scale which is tens or hundreds of thousands depending on the interconnect. And these bad boys are big....some folks say about 3MW/acre some say more like 1.5MW/acre and that high is density stacks so a several story enclosure at that. As an investment.....money is being thrown at anything that doesn't fart carbon and batteries are what's sexy right now so billions will be pushed their way they will absolutely be installed at some point.....might as well grab a piece of that yourself because they are the better option overall. First pilot programs roll out soon it has legs.

To the power delivery could be improved considerably....yes but at what cost in both dollars and reliability. The North American power grid is largest machine in the world and our most important infrastructure asset. It has never been shut down and operates at over 99% reliability. A toaster in San Diego is connected to the power lines in Maine or across the border in Canada....and again it's never shut down. It can't. Our way of life depends on it. So additional capacity is always required, ancillary service product levels must be maintained, redundant paths of transmission resources, control areas, balancing authorities, reliability coordinators, voltage and frequency must be maintained within tight parameters it's a complex process. That isn't saying there haven't been regional blackouts for periods or times when like Texas during Uri it is working at rates in %70s but it's never stopped and is so good at it's job that we take it for granted. Reliability is what drives it....over profit over everything. I'm not sitting here saying we power companies are doing this as a labor of love we are most definitely trying to make money but the reliability rules are written first and foremost with regard to the lights always being on and you cannot break them or you are done. Not like a bank that breaks financial rules, makes a billion, and is fined 10% of that or pharma that makes a gozillion on a drug that kills 1000's then pays dimes on the dollar.....you mess with reliability and you lose your ability to connect, full stop. That's why I poo poo so much of this....not that I don't wish we couldn't get all of power from nature but because until we control it you can't count on it reliably....or we will have to overbuild at staggering rates to cover our worst blown assumptions or freak events.....we aren't going to have our cake and eat it too.

Thank you for the information. I didn’t know about the discharge rates. Learned something. You are also right about MW scale and stacking. I’ll be glad to see a large scale trial.

 

[Pokey]

Form energy out of West Virginia is currently building a manufacturing facility. These are stackable units.

 

[Polds4OSU]

 

[Stillwater Townie]

But how many trillions would 100 by 100 miles of solar panels cost?

 

[Donnyboy]

View attachment 2060

Nope....10,000 sq miles = 6,400,000 acres.....it's about 1 MW/10 acres.....640K MW.....in the good sunny spots.

Peak demand of ERCOT 85K....Peak Demand of WEC 167K....Peak demand of Eastern Interconnect 529K....so you are 141K MW short.

 

[Polds4OSU]

Nope....10,000 sq miles = 6,400,000 acres.....it's about 1 MW/10 acres.....640K MW.....in the good sunny spots.

Peak demand of ERCOT 85K....Peak Demand of WEC 167K....Peak demand of Eastern Interconnect 529K....so you are 141K MW short.

That was what Elon Musk said today on Joe Rogan. I'm not sure how he arrives to this , but that is what he is telling people

 

[Donnyboy]

That was what Elon Musk said today on Joe Rogan. I'm not sure how he arrives to this , but that is what he is telling people

Musk is a smart dude....he may be saying his prototype Tesla solar panel on a perfect day in sunniest 100 sq/mi in the US and be right but it's not close to accurate using the latest and best currently being installed and not factoring in transmission losses from the sunniest spot in the US or that all areas are not created equally when it comes to solar. And then there is night.....

 

[andylicious]

The Biden Administration is getting ready to sink a bunch more money into wind and solar.

 

[Donnyboy]

The Biden Administration is getting ready to sink a bunch more money into wind and solar.

 

[Duke Silver]

I get a pretty good tax rebate with the purchase of my Tesla.

 

[GOGETUMPOKE]

Nope....10,000 sq miles = 6,400,000 acres.....it's about 1 MW/10 acres.....640K MW.....in the good sunny spots.

Peak demand of ERCOT 85K....Peak Demand of WEC 167K....Peak demand of Eastern Interconnect 529K....so you are 141K MW short.

 

[Polds4OSU]

The Biden Administration is getting ready to sink a bunch more money into wind and solar.

Interesting to see how much it that money goes Musk way. Him out here claiming he can power the entire US with solar....sounds like he getting the old bank acct ready for an influx of Taxpayer alternative energy $$$

 

[andylicious]

Interesting to see how much it that money goes Musk way. Him out here claiming he can power the entire US with solar....sounds like he getting the old bank acct ready for an influx of Taxpayer alternative energy $$$

They are doing it to protect the industry from interest rate increases

 

[Pokey]

They are doing it to protect the industry from interest rate increases

Hey Don Quixote, how much $
do you get for having a wind turbine on your farm or ranch? If the wind is insufficient in your La Mancha move west young man and glean more government $. You bitch and moan about the taxes not paid, but what are people getting paid? Tax crusader or just jealous?

 

[andylicious]

Hey Don Quixote, how much $
do you get for having a wind turbine on your farm or ranch? If the wind is insufficient in your area move west young man and glean more government $. You bitch and moan about the taxes not paid, but what are people getting paid? Tax crusader or just jealous?

How original, you do remind me a little of Sancho. I know you are just fine with schools and county services getting screwed out of 48% of the valuation on wind energy, I’m sure you believe their depreciation schedule that quickly gets them down to 20% of original valuation is just andvfair, I know you have no problem with consumers having their electric bills increase almost 20% a year due to the inefficiency of electrical generation, and I’m sure as any good Sancho you are all about your good friends getting a huge interest bail out. I’m not jealous, I don’t want renewables to have to deal with, electric transmission line people are bad enough I can’t imagine the difficulties with entitled green warriors.

To make this simple dear Sancho, I hope you never need an ambulance service in rural Oklahoma, you should probably cry with joy every time your electric bill goes up, and you should never complain about ‘moronic’ help at convenience stores as long as you support the ultimate piglet on the government teat.

 

[Pokey]

How original, you do remind me a little of Sancho. I know you are just fine with schools and county services getting screwed out of 48% of the valuation on wind energy, I’m sure you believe their depreciation schedule that quickly gets them down to 20% of original valuation is just andvfair, I know you have no problem with consumers having their electric bills increase almost 20% a year due to the inefficiency of electrical generation, and I’m sure as any good Sancho you are all about your good friends getting a huge interest bail out. I’m not jealous, I don’t want renewables to have to deal with, electric transmission line people are bad enough I can’t imagine the difficulties with entitled green warriors.

To make this simple dear Sancho, I hope you never need an ambulance service in rural Oklahoma, you should probably cry with joy every time your electric bill goes up, and you should never complain about ‘moronic’ help at convenience stores as long as you support the ultimate piglet on the government teat.

Whine away Don. But how much are you making off them? Or are you too far east to collect? Guess you’re just a drill baby drill, burn baby burn type guy. Obviously you think climate change is nonsense or you don’t really care about the future of your children and grandchildren. Guess you think turbines kill whales here. Are you for opening up ALL of our parks for oil and gas exploration? To hell with native Americans rights, let’s put more pipelines across their sacred grounds. Let’s spread out and extend oil and gas to every square inch of our country, and offshore in pristine waters.It’s all about how much our energy cost taxpayers, environment be damned.

 

[HacklemanPoke]

Whine away Don. But how much are you making off them? Or are you too far east to collect? Guess you’re just a drill baby drill, burn baby burn type guy. Obviously you think climate change is nonsense or you don’t really care about the future of your children and grandchildren. Guess you think turbines kill whales here. Are you for opening up ALL of our parks for oil and gas exploration? To hell with native Americans rights, let’s put more pipelines across their sacred grounds. Let’s spread out and extend oil and gas to every square inch of our country, and offshore in pristine waters.It’s all about how much our energy cost taxpayers, environment be damned.

Hydrocarbon based generation/consumption is dependent on a finite resource. It is also not a simple ROI model. In my opinion (as an O&G guy) we have to invest now in alternative sources for a variet of reasons. If we had leadership instead of hyperbole we would be looking at the best way to get to an all of the above type scenario (including nuclear) that shapes our economy and national security for the next 100 yrs and beyond. Those wanting to cease drilling are shortsighted and those wanting to just “drill baby drill” are shortsighted. I’ve posted many times that the O&G industry did not get to where it is today without “help” from fed and state governments. That “help” continues today.

In terms of alternatives, we will have to rely on some form(s) of alternatives in the future. Maybe some of us are long gone but our families won’t be. If we don’t invest today and include the federal and state governments can you imagine the financial costs to future generations? I don’t want kids and grandkids to not be able to afford electricity/transportation. Or be forced to choose where they live, work, educate and recreate based on these factors.

One final point, it is no secret that native Americans have been horrifically treated historically including by the O&G industry. But that coin has flipped for the most part. I have seen organized, disciplined and savy tribal leadership get O&G companies by the proverbial balls and squeeze until the O&G company tapped out. No longer do they issue ROWs or easements in perpetuity. Term ROWs have greatly enriched tribes and communities and given them leverage for the in foreseeable future. They have also created their own operations and midstream companies to conduct business in tribal territories and are some of the baddest asses to negotiate with. And they have created coalitions where their expertise is shared tribe to tribe across the US. For the most part when you deal w a tribe today it is “yes sir/ma’am. No sir/ma’am.” And “thank you may I have another.”

 

[Pokey]

Hydrocarbon based generation/consumption is dependent on a finite resource. It is also not a simple ROI model. In my opinion (as an O&G guy) we have to invest now in alternative sources for a variet of reasons. If we had leadership instead of hyperbole we would be looking at the best way to get to an all of the above type scenario (including nuclear) that shapes our economy and national security for the next 100 yrs and beyond. Those wanting to cease drilling are shortsighted and those wanting to just “drill baby drill” are shortsighted. I’ve posted many times that the O&G industry did not get to where it is today without “help” from fed and state governments. That “help” continues today.

In terms of alternatives, we will have to rely on some form(s) of alternatives in the future. Maybe some of us are long gone but our families won’t be. If we don’t invest today and include the federal and state governments can you imagine the financial costs to future generations? I don’t want kids and grandkids to not be able to afford electricity/transportation. Or be forced to choose where they live, work, educate and recreate based on these factors.

One final point, it is no secret that native Americans have been horrifically treated historically including by the O&G industry. But that coin has flipped for the most part. I have seen organized, disciplined and savy tribal leadership get O&G companies by the proverbial balls and squeeze until the O&G company tapped out. No longer do they issue ROWs or easements in perpetuity. Term ROWs have greatly enriched tribes and communities and given them leverage for the in foreseeable future. They have also created their own operations and midstream companies to conduct business in tribal territories and are some of the baddest asses to negotiate with. And they have created coalitions where their expertise is shared tribe to tribe across the US. For the most part when you deal w a tribe today it is “yes sir/ma’am. No sir/ma’am.” And “thank you may I have another.”

I’m all for sacrificing now to help my heirs. This current generation blames the Greatest and Boomers for creating this mess. I just want to help repair the breach, and show them some are willing to sacrifice on their behalf. Others bury their heads in the sand and only offer static options.