Mark Kelly is a Patriot too ..and he is the betting favorite right now
Harris 2024 election thread
- Thread starter Pokey
- Start date
I'm gonna keep saying it until it becomes untrue. The fence for both parties has been brought up to the pitchers mound. Just a simple pop fly gets the win. Shes going to strike out. Trumps then going to get his bat and do the same. Next overtime inning. Somone will eventually throw four walks the other party is going to win just by standing there with their eyes closed.
This is the game we are watching.
That would not be stepping away from the politicians which was my key point.
bubba_
New member
if the fence is up to the pitchers mound... how would a pop fly be far enough away for the runner at 3rd to tag and score? i don't understand the game you're watching.
We stepped away from politicians with Trump how did that turn out?
mugatu
Ranger
I agree but I don't think he has the name recognition for a quick turnaround campaign and doesn't automatically help pick up an extra state.
Having a seal Admiral would absolutely help with the out of date image of Dem being weak on military support and counter the MAGA "loves" veterans myth.
Not well. But, if you look at the careers and personalities of Donald Trump and Admiral McRaven, you found about the only commonality at all to put back at me.
Considering how Trump's own words on how he feels about veterans has had no impact on this myth, I don't think having a veteran running mate is a game changer. Republicans tend to only support veterans who are veterans.
PF5
Ranger
a pop fly clears the fence that has been moved WAY in and results in a HR...
Which is why I'd respect it.
Come out and say, "I chose him for the nation, to improve our tone and our spirit, not to game the election. Because we are going to win, and we are going to make all of us better."
mugatu
Ranger
Agree. Like I said a few days ago, I wish she'd actually pull a central never Trump R (thinking Kinzinger) and try to bring the parties together.
I agree I just am Leary of people outside of politics. I will say it may also be really just an issue with anyone in the entertainment field.
mugatu
Ranger
One possible downside for him is that he's currently 68, turning 69 around the election. So if they are trying to have a younger ticket, he'd not fit that.
This from the NYT seems to confirm what you are saying in number 2 and 3. And, we have enough on Trump to know that he cannot stop being Trump. The big question is will Harris step up and give economic "here is what I am going to do" or keep running on "but I'm not Trump!" I'm guessing the second one.
1. Trump’s lead
Donald Trump has led the 2024 race all year, and he leads Kamala Harris today.In The Times’s national polling average, Trump is ahead of Harris by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. That’s narrower than Trump’s recent lead over Biden, but similar to Trump’s lead over Biden before last month’s debate, as my colleague Nate Cohn points out. The race has in some ways reset to where it was.
There are also a couple of important differences. Harris is a far stronger campaigner than Biden. She’s a fiery, skilled speaker who can describe her own agenda and make the case against Trump in ways that Biden could not. She has more potential to make gains than Biden did.
That said, polls point to a potential weakness, too: Harris appears to be a worse fit with the Electoral College than Biden. She is stronger among younger voters and voters of color but weaker with older voters and white working-class voters. Because swing states are disproportionately old, white and working class, Harris is likelier to win the popular vote and lose the election than Biden was.
Think of it this way: It’s a bad trade for a Democrat to win more votes in California and fewer in Pennsylvania. As a result, Trump’s narrow national lead is probably a bit stronger than it looks.
2. Trump’s focus
Trump doesn’t seem to be focused on swing voters.His speech at the Republican convention started effectively, political analysts thought. He told the story of having almost been murdered five days earlier. He thanked Secret Service agents and honored Corey Comperatore, the former fire chief killed that day. It was a version of Trump that he rarely projects.
Then he returned to the more familiar version — the one that Trump’s fans adore and that most Americans don’t. He focused on himself. He lashed out. He lied. He rambled through the longest convention acceptance speech on record.
“You read a lot of stuff about what this guy says, but to actually sit down and hear it and sit through it, it was just insane to me,” Arnel Ramos, 21, a food service worker in Milwaukee who is an undecided voter, told The Times. “It made me uncomfortable,” she said. In the days since the convention, Trump has kept it up.
Republicans are nervous he is squandering a chance to win over Americans who are open to supporting him. These voters liked the pre-Covid Trump economy, and they don’t like that inflation and immigration surged under Biden. “The 2024 election is Donald Trump’s to lose, and he may yet manage it,” The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote.
3. Harris’s focus
So far, Harris doesn’t seem focused on swing voters, either.Like Biden before her, Harris has organized her initial campaign message around Trump. She emphasizes that she was a prosecutor, and that he is a convict. At a Wisconsin rally this week, she offered a contrast between “freedom, compassion and rule of law” and “chaos, fear and hate.” In an ad released yesterday, called “We Choose Freedom,” she shows Trump’s mug shot and headlines about his conviction. She is echoing Biden’s argument that the future of democracy is at stake.
But polls have repeatedly shown that this message resonates more with committed Democrats than swing voters. Swing voters care more about pocketbook issues.
Blueprint, a Democratic polling group, tested 15 potential Harris messages. The one that voters liked best began, “Vice President Harris understands the struggles of working families.” It went on to say that she would be tough on corporate price gouging and that she supported an “all of the above” energy policy to lower gas prices. The worst-performing message began, “Vice President Harris is a champion of American democracy.”
A Times/Siena College poll found a similar pattern. Look at the differences between the issues that matter most to Democrats and to undecided voters:
|
Note: Chart shows all answers that at least 5 percent of registered voters gave. Poll was conducted before President Biden dropped out. | Source: Times/Siena Poll, July 2024 | By The New York Times |
Other evidence also points to the primacy of economic issues. There are seven battleground Senate races this year — in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and elsewhere — where the Democratic candidates have been running ahead of Biden. All seven are offering populist messages focused on pocketbook issues. None talk much about democracy. To see the difference yourself, you can watch their ads here.
Harris talks about economic issues, to be sure. (Speaking to a teachers’ union yesterday, she accused Trump of favoring trickle-down economics and union busting.) But these issues remain secondary. I’ll be curious to see whether she can make the freedom-versus-chaos argument more effectively than Biden did — or whether she starts sounding more like those Senate candidates.
She will have an opportunity that Trump does not. Her convention, and the attention that comes with it, is still ahead. It starts Aug. 19.
A programming note: I won’t be writing this newsletter frequently between now and the convention. You’ll be in good hands with my colleagues.
48 states say Harris can get on ballot instead of Biden, rejecting claim switch breaks state laws
The election authorities of at least 48 states, both Republicans and Democrats, say there are no obstacles that would prevent Vice President Kamala Harris from getting on election ballots if she becomes the official Democratic presidential nominee, as expected.The findings of a CNN survey of all 50 states undercut the claims of House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said both before and after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday that there are legal “impediments” in some states to a party switching presidential candidates as the Democrats did. There was not a single state election authority that told CNN Harris would face a ballot issue as the official nominee; election authorities in two states, Florida and Montana, did not respond to requests for comment, but a review of the states’ ballot access rules suggests Harris is not likely to face an issue there either.
Johnson, a lawyer, said on ABC News Sunday that “it would be wrong and I think unlawful in accordance to some of these state rules for a handful of people to go in the backroom and switch it out because they’re – they don’t like the candidate any longer.” He said on CNN Monday that “in some of the states, there are impediments to just switching someone out like that.”
But experts on election law say that is not true, since the Democrats never named Biden as the official 2024 nominee or submitted his name to the states as their 2024 nominee. And election authorities around the country have now confirmed – telling CNN or saying in public statements that Harris will not face any obstacles getting on their ballots if she is formally chosen as the Democratic nominee next month.
The 48 states (plus the District of Columbia) whose election authorities have said the official Democratic nominee will not have ballot issues include the seven states with the closest margins in the 2020 election, which are widely considered the key swing states again in 2024: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada. The 48 states also include the 15 states where former President Donald Trump, the Republicans’ 2024 nominee, had his highest share of the vote in 2020.
Johnson’s office did not respond to CNN’s requests to identify the “impediments” he claimed some states have.
Since Biden was never the official nominee, states say there’s no problem for Harris
The election authorities in 48 states and the District of Columbia offered highly similar comments explaining why Harris does not face any hurdles getting on the ballot there.In general, they explained that they receive the names of a major party’s presidential nominee after the nominee is officially chosen by the party; that the Democratic convention has not been held yet (it’s scheduled for in-person events on August 19-22, with an official nomination vote to be held virtually earlier in the month); and that their state’s deadline for receiving the party nominees’ names has not arrived yet.
Patrick Gannon, spokesperson for the bipartisan North Carolina State Board of Elections, said in an email: “Political parties nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidates at their conventions and then inform the State Board of Elections of those persons’ names. The Democratic Party has not yet had its convention, nor has it informed the State Board of its presidential and vice-presidential candidates’ names.
When they do, those candidates’ names will be placed on the ballot.”
Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, wrote on social media: “So it’s understood, Biden dropping out will not impact Georgia ballots. As the Democrats haven’t had a convention, there is no ‘nominee’ to replace.”
Even the Republican election authorities of reliably pro-Trump states throughout the country definitively said Harris would not have issues there if she were chosen as nominee at the convention.
Chelsea Carattini, spokesperson for Republican Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane, said in an interview: “There’s no issue. We basically just wait for the major parties to do their national conventions, and once completed, they send us the certificate of nomination for whomever is selected.”
Michon Lindstrom, spokesperson for Republican Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams, said in an interview: “No, there is no issue with Kamala being on the ballot because Joe Biden was never the official nominee.”
Rachel Soulek, director of South Dakota’s elections division under Republican Secretary of State Monae Johnson, said in an email: “South Dakota will have no issues with the Democratic Party’s nominations.”
Landon Palmer, a spokesperson for Republican West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner, said in an email: “The candidate that will appear on West Virginia’s ballot in November will be the candidate that is nominated by the DNC. Presuming that is Kamala Harris, then there will be no issues.”
Laney Rawls, spokesperson for Republican Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen, said in an email: “Major parties have until August 23, 2024 to certify to the Secretary of State’s office their Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates” under a provision of Alabama law Rawls identified. She added, “The Secretary of State’s office will certify lawfully submitted party certifications on August 28, 2024.”
Experts say issue is settled
CNN’s Tierney Sneed reported Sunday that Trump allies have discussed whether or not they have grounds to mount a challenge on the replacement of Biden with Harris, according to a source familiar with the discussions.It’s impossible to say for certain whether a particular court in a particular state might rule that the state’s elections authority was wrong. But experts say that is unlikely.
Derek Muller, a University of Notre Dame law professor who is an expert on election law, said in an email: “Democrats do not have a nominee yet. The nomination formally happens at the convention. Any litigation before the convention challenging the identity of the nominee is about something that hasn’t yet happened. Any challenges after the convention would be challenges to a nominee who received the support of the convention delegates under convention rules. It’s essentially impossible to argue that the nominee is not the true nominee of the party at that point.”
UrbanCowboy
New member
Oh my god - was that as good for you as it was for me? *smokes cigarette*
So to be clear: you are saying that Kamala Harris announced in Ukraine they would be accepted to NATO and within 24 hours Russia mobilized their armed forces to invade. Based on that alone. In one day. With no other warning. Got it.
Lastly, and I can't stress this enough, if Trump ends this war it's going to be at the cost Ukrainian lands. Otherwise known as a Russian victory. So he'll do exactly what Russia desires and Russia will get everything it wanted at the start of all this. Great win. I can't wait for 5 years down the line where they invade the rest of Ukraine and you're on here spouting how 'well, they really HAD to invade...we only gave them half of Ukraine last time!"
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