This is a great starting point for a conversation. Let’s just use round numbers. And feel free to change any of the assumptions. I just did quick google searches.
To start full employment in the US is 141,000,000.
We sit at 4.2% unemployment or roughly 6,000,000 “open jobs. And let’s assume that in that 6,000,000 (which is rounded up) includes many of the laid off Federal workers. So w the announcement that Elon is about done can we assume those workers are already in the 6,000,000 of unemployed pool? But the lowest unemployment rate in US history is 2.5% or 3,500,000 jobs at today’s 141,000,000 full employment.
If we deport 10,000,000 workers (assumes about half of the deportations are working), we have a total of 16,000,000 jobs to fill.
There are 41,000,000 Americans age 60-69. Let’s assume they move the retirement age up form 62/65 to 67/69 and that 41MM is distributed evenly between each of the 10 yrs or 4,000,000 per yr.
And there are 11,000,000 age 14-17 (included bc many states are passing laws doing away w restrictions such as overnight shift work for age 14 & up).
So we will have 16,000,000 jobs before manufacturing hits the US shore.
We have a pool of workers age 60-69 that is probably somewhere around 25,000,000 at 50% retiree’s staying employed and 12,500,000 at 25% delay.
Another pool age 14-17 that is probably around 2,500,000.
Add in the 2,500,000 currently unemployed who would be available for jobs if the US matched its lowest unemployment rate.
In total that would be somewhere around 15,000,000 to 20,000,000 additional bodies for 16,000,000 jobs before manufacturing gets here.