So wait, the government hires employees that know what they are doing? They aren't all incompetent idiots just sucking off the public teat? I'm shocked!
2024 Presidential Election
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So wait, the government hires employees that know what they are doing? They aren't all incompetent idiots just sucking off the public teat? I'm shocked!
HacklemanPoke
Deputy
So this is a very nuanced discussion.
Everyone remembers what happened in 2020 right. Was it the May WTI crude oil futures that went off the board at near minus $40 per barrel? I think the WTI futures contract finished the year below $50/bbl. There was next to zero demand. People were at home. So when you reduce petroleum demand to near zero and prices are in the $20’s and $30’s we should have been filling during trumps last year but we weren’t. And to be fair it could have been that SPR levels were approaching capacity. So Biden comes into office and we draw stocks way down beginning in 2022. What happened then? Russia invaded Ukraine and prices at the pump started to rise. Remember all the stupid little Joe stickers on gas pumps “I did that”? So Joe admin tried to ease gas prices by selling off SPR.
Also during this time Joe admin started approving drilling permits on Fed lands at a higher rate than the Trump admin. We’ve also seen domestic oil production at the highest levels. Higher than under Trump.
So the story is SPR was at 638 million bbls when Joe was inaugurated. Russia invades Ukraine and SPR was at 582 million bbls. Not a significant difference. But we continued to draw even as domestic production reached record levels. I don’t actually disagree w what he did. Remember 2008 when in the summer oil hit almost $150/bbl? Then what happened to the economy? Great Recession. Lehman Brothers? No matter who was president the only way out was massive deficit spending. By 2009 WTI was only in the 40’s. That period kneecapped the US oil and gas industry. Rigs were laying down. I think Biden admin anticipated overheating similar to 2008 but this time w Russia at war.
SPR is currently at 376 million bbls. We haven’t added back as fast as we could especially at record production levels. But Russia is still at war, the Middle East has been at the brink for nearly a year and US gas prices are at levels where increasing oil demand by buying for SPR replenishment would increase oil prices which would increase prices at the pump which would also put pressure on inflation.
It’s a balancing act that has been handled pretty good given war, increased demand and inflation. Trump just has the luxury of being able to point at facts and not have to explain anything behind them.
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I think some of the diehard Republicans are starting to figure out he's nuts. I've seen people who have been really MAGA for a while now start to post this meme. I've also started to hear less about what Trump is going to do and more about their fears that with Harris/Walz they won't recognize the country in 4 years.
I wonder how this narrative will play out in the next 3 months
I wonder how this narrative will play out in the next 3 months
How fast do people think society changes?
HacklemanPoke
Deputy
One of the things that has to be scaring the GOP is a collapse of momentum. The R base will vote but will the MAGA base?
Rs are motivated by policy but if the MAGA base doesn’t turn out they easily lose 5-10%. That’s 3.5-7 million votes.
At the same time the Ds look galvanized and energized.
I’ve posted before that I’ve read D turnout at 55% we get 2016. At 60% we get 2020. At 65% we get Obama levels.
Trumps #s really haven’t changed to the upside. After the assassination attempt and convention he only bumped 0.2%. If he loses 5% it’s over. He loses 10% it’s 2011 bedlam.
And not only do they lose the House but they probably don’t take the senate.
NEW on last night on AC360: Michele Morrow, the GOP nominee to run North Carolina’s K-12 public schools was at January 6 and posted a video that night calling for pro-Trump military coup: "Puts the Constitution to the side...now the military rules all.”
I don't think they think it through. They just go with what they are told and when they start to realize they have been lied to, they need to find another lie to hold onto so they don't feel duped.
Seems like a legit subject for a SBC pastor from the pulpit
North Texas SBC pastor condemns Harris-Walz ticket as 'the death of America'
Among Texas Republicans, Plano pastor Jack Graham is known as a powerful ally against the left. Graham, the 74-year-old leader of the SBC-affiliated Prestonwood Baptist Church in North Texas, has long told his predominantly white, roughly 50,000-member congregation—which includes Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton—that they are engaged in a "spiritual war" against liberals in opposition to God, Jesus and scripture.
North Texas SBC pastor condemns Harris-Walz ticket as 'the death of America'
Among Texas Republicans, Plano pastor Jack Graham is known as a powerful ally against the left. Graham, the 74-year-old leader of the SBC-affiliated Prestonwood Baptist Church in North Texas, has long told his predominantly white, roughly 50,000-member congregation—which includes Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton—that they are engaged in a "spiritual war" against liberals in opposition to God, Jesus and scripture.
mugatu
Ranger
Church needs to stay out of government and government needs to stay out if church.
That said, I still don't understand how a religious person sides with Trump...
And, if a church wants to be this involved in government, pay some taxes. If you want to be a religious organization, stay out of politics.
It's such a simple concept that they struggle so hard to understand.
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I really wish she would get primaried. If she had an ounce of political savy she would realize this presents a great opportunity to get something done that would be a priority for her constituents. Instead she make loud noises but largely be ignored.
Because X is ONLY available in the states apparently...Yeah and the fact the EU demanded it be restricted to their area hours before go live....and X said no....sure NO ONE in the entire EU logged in hahahhaBecause X is ONLY available in the states apparently...
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I want to see the poop show but I don't want to add to this statistic
I'm sure there will be plenty of highlights later I'm certainly not adding to the count.
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mugatu
Ranger
Almost always very slowly as it should, until it doesn't which is usually bad.
Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and others all were slowly changing until they weren't. We were close to losing slow change with the GFC, a little close with COVID had it been even more virulent.
I'm not enthralled with Harris. She hasn't spouted any policies that I hate but I get the impression she is more liberal than me. But, if she raises my taxes, meh, more slow change that I can tolerate.
Trump on the other hand could continue slow change. But, there is a higher chance of rapid change if he is elected, and that is usually bad.
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