Then they really aren’t predicting who’s going to win just trying to get the money to be as equal on each side right?
2024 Presidential Election
- Thread starter PF5
- Start date
No, the lines are not set by the prediction markets. They move based on contact purchases only.
Stillwater Townie
Ranger
Mike Adams, the highly delusional far right conspiracy theory nut, tells what will happen with the election. He also predicted in 2021 and 2022 that the Chinese would launch a surprise military invasion upon the USA west coast from troops undercover in merchant ships.
MY BEST PREDICTION based on current knowledge: On Tuesday night, very late (technically early morning Wednesday), it's a Trump blowout, with Trump winning the obvious red states and all but two swing states (losing Virginia in particular). Electoral numbers exceed 310. Trump's team and Steve Bannon declare victory. X erupts in celebration. But the corporate media pushes back hard, refusing to call the states and saying it's going to take up to 12 more days for additional mail-in ballots to be counted. At this point tempers flare, and the Democrats churn out counterfeit ballots and re-run the same ballots over and over, just like they did in 2020, in an attempt to out-rig the overwhelming Trump victory. Within 2 days, they achieve it and produce wholly fraudulent numbers that appear to achieve a "narrow victory" in key states. The corporate media declares Kamala to be the winner and try to shove another steal down the throats of the American people. But shocking evidence quickly emerges, likely from James O'Keefe's group or other groups that are keeping tabs on the rigging. Without naming names, a lot of wealthy tech people have a huge interest in Trump and Vance winning, and they have significant cyber teams preparing to monitor results and capture evidence of the Dem rigging in real time, much like what Mike Lindell promised he had in 2020 but didn't really have. This time, the evidence is real and it is irrefutable.
MY BEST PREDICTION based on current knowledge: On Tuesday night, very late (technically early morning Wednesday), it's a Trump blowout, with Trump winning the obvious red states and all but two swing states (losing Virginia in particular). Electoral numbers exceed 310. Trump's team and Steve Bannon declare victory. X erupts in celebration. But the corporate media pushes back hard, refusing to call the states and saying it's going to take up to 12 more days for additional mail-in ballots to be counted. At this point tempers flare, and the Democrats churn out counterfeit ballots and re-run the same ballots over and over, just like they did in 2020, in an attempt to out-rig the overwhelming Trump victory. Within 2 days, they achieve it and produce wholly fraudulent numbers that appear to achieve a "narrow victory" in key states. The corporate media declares Kamala to be the winner and try to shove another steal down the throats of the American people. But shocking evidence quickly emerges, likely from James O'Keefe's group or other groups that are keeping tabs on the rigging. Without naming names, a lot of wealthy tech people have a huge interest in Trump and Vance winning, and they have significant cyber teams preparing to monitor results and capture evidence of the Dem rigging in real time, much like what Mike Lindell promised he had in 2020 but didn't really have. This time, the evidence is real and it is irrefutable.
Stillwater Townie
Ranger
Even though it may be a fake posting it's amazing what an extreme hold Trump has on some people from the poorest to the richest. Alex Jones said today he never got so much feedback after saying the election is rigged, and Trump may lose it. But his followers wrote what do they mean? Everybody knows Trump is going to win. But after Jones pointed out that Trump had just said essentially the same thing they wrote back in apology to Jones.
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Small business tax cut plan is too liberal for you?
Let’s not pretend her history is not extremely liberal. You and I both know she was ranked the most liberal Senator during her time in the Senate. And the question was about comparisons to Clinton and Biden. She is well to the left of both of them. I don’t think anyone would argue that.
Even Axios, hardly a conservative news group, says “her actual governing plans are a mystery even to many Democrats — given her past liberal record and current promise to govern from the middle. “
This Axios article just came out today and I think it is pretty accurate.
Trump has been a liberal in the past too. What is the point of them saying what they plan to do as president if you go only by their past?
UrbanCowboy
New member
Totally agree with your first sentence - as did most Americans up until 2016. So now we have Harris being far more liberal than previous Democratic candidates and that right there should tell you how much Trump repulses people.
Multiple members of Trumps previous administration have actively spoken out against him and said that he's dangerous. These are republicans, not democrats. Harris could win this solely on the 'I'm not Trump' vote.
I really hope republicans do some soul searching after this election - but if they haven't done it by now then it's probably time for an actual fiscal conservate, socially liberal party to emerge. They wipe the floor with both sides.
I don't think it has to even be socially liberal, just not socially intrusive.
If there was a platform as simple as the government wants to provide appropriate public services in a fiscally responsible manner making sure the needs of society are met while staying out of the private lives of citizens, I think that would be sufficient. Of course fiscally responsible and needs of society can vary depending on individual perspective but that's a heck of alot better than trying to regulate morality to the extreme in one direction or the other.
Which backs up my statement that the 2024 presidential election choices are at an all-time low. How bad of a candidate do you have to be to not run away with this election.
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I'll do more frequent prediction market updates today, just in case anyone finds them interesting. Kalshi has had a good amount of movement in the last 24 hours. Its overall trended towards Trump:
Predict It still has Harris ahead, with a general trend towards Trump:
Polymarket, which does not allow election trading for US Citizens, has Trump ahead big, and a general trend in his direction:
So what does this mean? It looks like the prediction markets are feeling decent about a Trump victory. It will be interesting to see what happens between now and tomorrow night/wednesday morning.
Predict It still has Harris ahead, with a general trend towards Trump:
Polymarket, which does not allow election trading for US Citizens, has Trump ahead big, and a general trend in his direction:
So what does this mean? It looks like the prediction markets are feeling decent about a Trump victory. It will be interesting to see what happens between now and tomorrow night/wednesday morning.
I'm trying to keep my anxiety at bay the best I can today, tomorrow, and until January.
After all their lies about "stealing the election" in 2020, I think the GOP is actively trying this time around. Voter intimidation, stealing / damaging ballots, MAGA electors, the supreme court, and Mike Johnson.
After all their lies about "stealing the election" in 2020, I think the GOP is actively trying this time around. Voter intimidation, stealing / damaging ballots, MAGA electors, the supreme court, and Mike Johnson.
‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’
Also, we should ALL be upset that because of our stupid system, the future of our country is decided by 7/50 states. Or possibly just Pennsylvania.
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