2024 Presidential Election

GOGETUMPOKE said:
According to the Iowa poll Trump is polling better in Minnesota and Virginia than he is in Iowa? 😂
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Yep. Based on Nate Silver and Nate Cohn's analysis, these polls showing Harris or Trump further ahead are probably more accurate than those that are herding to +/- 0. Pollsters are trying to not be wrong since they were so far off in 2016, 2020 and 2022 and thus are thumbing the scale.
 
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GratefulPoke said:
Yep. Based on Nate Silver and Nate Cohn's analysis, these polls showing Harris or Trump further ahead are probably more accurate than those that are herding to +/- 0. Pollsters are trying to not be wrong since they were so far off in 2016, 2020 and 2022 and thus are thumbing the scale.
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Polls are interesting and the movement of the election odds sites is telling, but who wins is anyone’s guess. It is close. Weird thing is that since so many battleground states are a near toss-up, that there is actually a potential of what may appear to be an electoral blow-out.

My guess… it comes down to who wins PA.
 
JTOSU said:
Polls are interesting and the movement of the election odds sites is telling, but who wins is anyone’s guess. It is close. Weird thing is that since so many battleground states are a near toss-up, that there is actually a potential of what may appear to be an electoral blow-out.

My guess… it comes down to who wins PA.
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Right now, I think Harris takes Michigan and Georgia, with North Carolina being a lean in her direction. I think Trump has Arizona and Nevada. It comes down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which appear to be true toss ups.

I think you are right about the electoral college ultimately not being close.
 
GratefulPoke said:
Right now, I think Harris takes Michigan and Georgia, with North Carolina being a lean in her direction. I think Trump has Arizona and Nevada. It comes down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which appear to be true toss ups.

I think you are right about the electoral college ultimately not being close.
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I haven’t lived here long enough to know how Michigan is going to go like I did in the last election in Ohio. I haven’t gotten down past the population line in Michigan at all since last March. But Trump isn’t going to carry urban and suburban Michigan. And from what I can see rural Michigan is pretty evenly divided, much more so now than it was two years ago when I moved here. So if I were going to hazard a guess it would be that Michigan is going to go to Harris. The wildcard is whether or not Michigan Muslims turn out, but I think they will see that they are better off with Harris than with Trump, especially with comments Vance has made in the past week. I can’t imagine why you would say things like that in the closing days of the campaign.


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RxCowboy said:
I haven’t lived here long enough to know how Michigan is going to go like I did in the last election in Ohio. I haven’t gotten down past the population line in Michigan at all since last March. But Trump isn’t going to carry urban and suburban Michigan. And from what I can see rural Michigan is pretty evenly divided, much more so now than it was two years ago when I moved here. So if I were going to hazard a guess it would be that Michigan is going to go to Harris. The wildcard is whether or not Michigan Muslims turn out, but I think they will see that they are better off with Harris than with Trump, especially with comments Vance has made in the past week. I can’t imagine why you would say things like that in the closing days of the campaign.


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They had a big group of the Muslim leadership provide an endorsement of her a week or so ago.
 
Amazing -- moments after denouncing Biden on Meet the press for his "garbage" comment, Doug Burgum completely changes his tune when Welker plays him a clip of Trump calling Harris supporters "scum" and "absolute garbage."

"Most Americans don't have time to listen to this soap opera of which comments people should be concerned about," Burgum says.

www.threads.net

Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

Amazing -- moments after denouncing Biden on Meet the press for his "garbage" comment, Doug Burgum completely changes his tune when Welker plays him a clip of Trump calling Harris supporters "scum" and "absolute garbage." "Most Americans don't have time to listen to this soap opera of which...
www.threads.net www.threads.net
 
His entire campaign is trying to ENSURE they can't call the race on election night by muddying up the courts and processes etc


We're two days out from Election Day and Trump claims if the race isn't called on Tuesday night it's because people are cheating.

"They're gonna say we may take an extra 12 days to determine...and what do you think happens during that 12 days? What do you think happens?"

www.threads.net

American Bridge 21st Century (@american_bridge) on Threads

We're two days out from Election Day and Trump claims if the race isn't called on Tuesday night it's because people are cheating. "They're gonna say we may take an extra 12 days to determine...and what do you think happens during that 12 days? What do you think happens?"
www.threads.net www.threads.net
 
Trump calls the press phony and starts complaining about early voting access.

"Look at what's going on in your state every day. They're talking about extending hours and stuff. What, whoever heard of this stuff?"

www.threads.net

American Bridge 21st Century (@american_bridge) on Threads

Trump calls the press phony and starts complaining about early voting access. "Look at what's going on in your state every day. They're talking about extending hours and stuff. What, whoever heard of this stuff?"
www.threads.net www.threads.net
 
Polds4OSU said:
Trump calls the press phony and starts complaining about early voting access.

"Look at what's going on in your state every day. They're talking about extending hours and stuff. What, whoever heard of this stuff?"

www.threads.net

American Bridge 21st Century (@american_bridge) on Threads

Trump calls the press phony and starts complaining about early voting access. "Look at what's going on in your state every day. They're talking about extending hours and stuff. What, whoever heard of this stuff?"
www.threads.net www.threads.net
Click to expand...
I take it Trump has heard that he's running behind in the early polling.
 
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