And, if he keeps improving, he might catch up to that help-the-poor, bleeding-heart liberal Pelosi at some point in the next 10 million years.
The Steross Market and Investing Thread
- Thread starter jobob85
- Start date
jobob85
Bent Member
Hopefully you stuck with it
I did and am now in the black.
Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Here is the job reports correction.....overstated by 800K through Dec 23 over a million counting the last "great" jobs report. All the economic reports are outright lies. A massive correction has to occur.
Oh look, they even threw in some great replacement nonsense for their white supremacists readers.Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Here is the job reports correction.....overstated by 800K through Dec 23 over a million counting the last "great" jobs report. All the economic reports are outright lies. A massive correction has to occur.
Yeah......
It's a crappy write up.....but google Philadelphia Fed Jobs report correction and see how many people are covering it....the official story is still the economy is great.
Yeah, I googled "Philadelphia Fed correction 800,000" and there's one other mention of this. A single other website that reposted the article. Because Zero Hedge is a conspiracy site.
The report is real and if you want to dig through the volumes on the feds site you can find it. I’ve read the numbers and posted here about how the jobs reports are incorrect past the point of “we missed this” to the point that it is intentionally false. The strategy is the economy is great…..just don’t look for yourself. So this comes out right before a holiday weekend when all the conservatives are up in arms over trans flags. The market remains strong…..everywhere else you look it’s not good news
mugatu
Ranger
Yep. I googled exactly "Philadelphia fed jobs report correction". Got some stuff from Dec 2022 and then the Zero Hedge article that was linked and an article on talkmarkets.com with the same author.
So, what is this? Stagflation?
I make really good money and don't feel like I can afford shit like I used to buy. And, by "can't afford" I really mean "won't afford." I'm not waiting in line or booking the 9:15pm table that is all that is left to get some kinda good food that will cost me $200, or $350 if my daughter comes because she drinks a lot more than my wife.
This is gonna sound crappy, but working in health care, the best times for me are when the economy sucks. Things are cheaper, more available, and I'm not fighting with the "new rich-ish" people blowing money to appear rich. I feel bad, but it is true.
And, frankly, no matter what report Zero Hedge or anyone else comes up with, I just ain't seeing a bad economy. Not in my life, and not in the real indicators I look at.
IMHO, we are still climbing a wall of worry, and we've still got a lot of climbing to do.
The only place it came out right before holiday weekend was on Zero Hedge! They're... trying to bury their own story!?
mugatu
Ranger
I'm surprised FoxNews hasn't started running it. They tend to run anything they can reference (or make up) to make things look bad.
In an actual massive stock market fraud, Trump's Truth Social filed their 8-K today. $7 billion market cap. $4 million in annual revenue. $57 million loss. And the scam-filled cherry on top... as a social media company they didn't report any user metrics. No number of daily users. No info on if daily active users are increasing or decreasing (hint: it's the latter), no info on user engagement. NOT ONLY THAT they stated they may never issue those metrics in any future report. A social media company. That won't tell investors whether anyone's actually using their social media app.
Oh yeah and cost per user is in the $1300 range. For reference Twitter is around $10 cost per user.
Oh yeah and cost per user is in the $1300 range. For reference Twitter is around $10 cost per user.
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A good friend of mine texted this to me last week. Down 21.47% just today. I guess I should have listened to him!
Maybe prudent to buy DJT stock now, so you can sell when the foreign interests funnel billions of dollars into it later.
It's still inflation....it's slowed but not over and energy costs rising will move it back up. Stagflation may be where we are headed ala Japan of years back and that could be the best outcome. I don't know exactly what you make but can venture a decent guess based on knowing where you live and what you do for primary income and you do do well and live in a cheap city. When stuff sucks you do well and have been doing well for years.....you are in the group that will be last to feel this...maybe even come out better when there is blood in the streets buy land kinda deal. Imagine your kids are 14 and 10 instead of adults and you and the lovely Mrs. Steross brought home 100-125K between the two of you and it costs 25% more for groceries, gas has been higher for over a year than it has since 2014, CPI is higher than it's been since 2000, electricity is up 27% in the last 3 years, and the interest on that used car you need to replace is double....
Zero Hedge didn't create the number 800K the Philly Fed did....how is 800k of the 2023 jobs reports totals not being real a good thing?
I don't see what you are seeing. I trust your eye you're a smart guy but where is the good news? Building permits are down, mortgage applications are down, wages stagnant (negative against inflation), jobs aren't growing anywhere near where they are saying, delinquencies are up on home and auto loans, auto sales are still well under pre-pandemic levels with possibly more rate increases and certainly more holds coming, rent is up and still rising, personal debt is at all time highs....personal savings are dropping (median savings down from $4500 22 to $1200 23 and average down from $35,336 or 25,898) with savings rates close to pre-08 crisis lows in other words people are financing life not vacations or a special a Christmas gift, big bank reserve ratios are dropping under 1:1, regional bank failures and bail outs, commercial real estate is way down, tax data shows as much as 24% (conservatively 20 which is ahead of projections) of single family home purchases are private equity which will be bad for the average John/Jane Doe, the fed is insolvent, national debt load is growing due to spending to dangerous levels debt % of GDP is up 16% in the last few years......where is the good news besides Wall Street? The market is rocking your investments are growing your wealth....it sucks to make less than 100K right now and that's most folks.....if all or even most of those things keep trending something has to give. A big correction or years of blah.
I'm not saying it is all roses. The Fed purposefully (and FAR too late) chilled the economy to fight inflation. And, yep, that hurts the little guy more than Wall Street. The things you are listing are mostly those planned effects and or the type of stuff that is always smoldering. There is always doom and gloom news. I can tell you as an older guy, I used to listen to that intently. I would hold on to cash for the "coming market crash." I ate up Jeremey Grantham, Roubini ect that predicted 20 of the 3 coming crashes. I'd look at jobs reports and "shadow" jobs reports and all of the bad stuff. And it COST ME A TON OF MONEY. I'd be retired by now if I just let the market tell me what is happening not the news. That is just long-term market math. Sure it could change, but I've got more than a century of data telling me it won't.
The Fed has to balance cooling inflation without knocking us into recession. So far, that is what has happened. I think they thought it would cool more than it has. They stabbed the economy with a knife and the economy said, "Ow, that hurt a little." and went on with its business. People aren't happy paying higher prices. Nobody cares about that. They will care when people say, "Meh, I'm fine with my iPhone6 and some packaged ramen noodles" instead of a iP15 and a meal out at a ramen place charging $23 for ramen in a decorative Japanese bowl. So far, they are still spending, just whining about it.
And, barring something unforeseen like a pandemic or a GFC, I'm just not seeing anything that will change it. Not a prediction, just that nothing looks recession-worthy to me at this point. It will be interesting to see what they do on interest rates with the election coming. If they drop them, Trump is gonna whine that they are helping Biden. If they keep them too high, they might put us into recession.
A concerning thing from a cycle standpoint is the election coming up and typically we get a lift with elections. We either elect a new leader and people are excited by the potential, or we confirm that we are happy with the current one. Well, look at the load of crap this election will be. We either confirm a leader who is not favorable, or re-elect someone who already had his chance and divided the country. This isn't ideal and is a huge flaw in what our system has become.
Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.