The Steross Market and Investing Thread

Donnyboy said:
It's still inflation....it's slowed but not over and energy costs rising will move it back up. Stagflation may be where we are headed ala Japan of years back and that could be the best outcome. I don't know exactly what you make but can venture a decent guess based on knowing where you live and what you do for primary income and you do do well and live in a cheap city. When stuff sucks you do well and have been doing well for years.....you are in the group that will be last to feel this...maybe even come out better when there is blood in the streets buy land kinda deal. Imagine your kids are 14 and 10 instead of adults and you and the lovely Mrs. Steross brought home 100-125K between the two of you and it costs 25% more for groceries, gas has been higher for over a year than it has since 2014, CPI is higher than it's been since 2000, electricity is up 27% in the last 3 years, and the interest on that used car you need to replace is double....

Zero Hedge didn't create the number 800K the Philly Fed did....how is 800k of the 2023 jobs reports totals not being real a good thing?

I don't see what you are seeing. I trust your eye you're a smart guy but where is the good news? Building permits are down, mortgage applications are down, wages stagnant (negative against inflation), jobs aren't growing anywhere near where they are saying, delinquencies are up on home and auto loans, auto sales are still well under pre-pandemic levels with possibly more rate increases and certainly more holds coming, rent is up and still rising, personal debt is at all time highs....personal savings are dropping (median savings down from $4500 22 to $1200 23 and average down from $35,336 or 25,898) with savings rates close to pre-08 crisis lows in other words people are financing life not vacations or a special a Christmas gift, big bank reserve ratios are dropping under 1:1, regional bank failures and bail outs, commercial real estate is way down, tax data shows as much as 24% (conservatively 20 which is ahead of projections) of single family home purchases are private equity which will be bad for the average John/Jane Doe, the fed is insolvent, national debt load is growing due to spending to dangerous levels debt % of GDP is up 16% in the last few years......where is the good news besides Wall Street? The market is rocking your investments are growing your wealth....it sucks to make less than 100K right now and that's most folks.....if all or even most of those things keep trending something has to give. A big correction or years of blah.
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I'm not sure if you invest but if you do it seems like you need to separate your politics from your economics. When Trump was in office I wasn't actively cheering against the economy, which it seems like you're doing. I was happy to see my portfolio do well. And some of the stuff you're saying is just flat out wrong. The Fed has given absolutely zero indication they'll raise interest rates again and almost everyone outside wherever you get your news agrees they'll start cutting later this year. Also wage growth has been pretty solid under Biden, with low level earners seeing the highest increase in wages.

And there's still zero evidence of this 800k Philly Fed claim outside of you and Zero Hedge.
 
Pokey said:
Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.
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What Steross is saying now and what I was telling Donny a few days ago is that he just needs to zoom out. I'll post some charts compiled by an independent website that I've referenced here before. If you focus on the years around the pandemic, you can come to all sorts of negative conclusions. But if you zoom out:
 

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Also, yes. Mortgage applications are down because rates are up. That means Quantitative Tightening is working. As a result, housing prices are normalizing.

CRE is collapsing. Yes. Nothing to do with economic conditions though. Companies just realized they don't need the space. This will take a few more banks down with it. But only the ones too exposed to CRE. And they'll get bought up and consolidated.

Fed literally can't be insolvent.

There will be a lot of short term pain. Money has been free for a couple decades. Rate environment/monetary policy is normalizing not "skyrocketing."
 
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Pokey said:
Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.
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I was speaking about favorability ratings which are very low for Biden not my personal favorability between the two choices.
 
Big Huck said:
I'm not sure if you invest but if you do it seems like you need to separate your politics from your economics. When Trump was in office I wasn't actively cheering against the economy, which it seems like you're doing. I was happy to see my portfolio do well. And some of the stuff you're saying is just flat out wrong. The Fed has given absolutely zero indication they'll raise interest rates again and almost everyone outside wherever you get your news agrees they'll start cutting later this year. Also wage growth has been pretty solid under Biden, with low level earners seeing the highest increase in wages.

And there's still zero evidence of this 800k Philly Fed claim outside of you and Zero Hedge.
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Go look up the Early Benchmark data on the Philly Fed website.....then read it.

I'm not actively cheering against the economy but I'm not calling chicken sh... chicken salad. I wish we had a booming economy that's good for everyone but we have a collection of markers that are all bad and god forbid you say anything other than things are great.
 
Bowers3 said:
What Steross is saying now and what I was telling Donny a few days ago is that he just needs to zoom out. I'll post some charts compiled by an independent website that I've referenced here before. If you focus on the years around the pandemic, you can come to all sorts of negative conclusions. But if you zoom out:
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Help me out here....how does zooming out make this better? I'm not saying this is the worst economy in the history of our country and every metric is worse than it's ever been I'm saying all those things I listed is are cause for alarm and usually signal an economic event. Then you posted charts that show changes as dramatic as any on the expanded view in the wrong direction.....like yes credit card debt has been higher as a percent of disposable income but in the 20 years you listed it has been falling....now it rising faster than it does on the expanded view and for 3 consecutive years which also didn't happen on the chart. Credit card delinquencies are lower than the 08 crash but look at the graph heading in to that and look at the last few years the last time delinquencies trended like this American housing blew up. Interest/debt.....last time it jumped like this is early 80's when interest was in the teens and we were in a recession......the multiple job holders yes it has been higher in the past but look at the stark directional difference in the last three years. Like you have to tie it to the 80-82 recession or 08 housing bubble to see trends that look like the last few years. That's what I'm saying.....things aren't trending in the right direction and all you hear is how great it is.....things are pointing to a correction not a uptick.
 
Donnyboy said:
Help me out here....how does zooming out make this better? I'm not saying this is the worst economy in the history of our country and every metric is worse than it's ever been I'm saying all those things I listed is are cause for alarm and usually signal an economic event. Then you posted charts that show changes as dramatic as any on the expanded view in the wrong direction.....like yes credit card debt has been higher as a percent of disposable income but in the 20 years you listed it has been falling....now it rising faster than it does on the expanded view and for 3 consecutive years which also didn't happen on the chart. Credit card delinquencies are lower than the 08 crash but look at the graph heading in to that and look at the last few years the last time delinquencies trended like this American housing blew up. Interest/debt.....last time it jumped like this is early 80's when interest was in the teens and we were in a recession......the multiple job holders yes it has been higher in the past but look at the stark directional difference in the last three years. Like you have to tie it to the 80-82 recession or 08 housing bubble to see trends that look like the last few years. That's what I'm saying.....things aren't trending in the right direction and all you hear is how great it is.....things are pointing to a correction not a uptick.
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Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.
 
Bowers3 said:
Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.
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The economy still hasn't normalized either. We're still seeing certain sectors boom while others lag which is a Covid hangover as well. Honestly people have been predicting a recession for how long now? Meanwhile GDP just keeps getting revised upwards quarter after quarter.
 
Bowers3 said:
Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.
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Absolutely Covid was a different event and fall out should be expected...maybe it's just the difference in half full or empty glasses.
 
Donnyboy said:
Absolutely Covid was a different event and fall out should be expected...maybe it's just the difference in half full or empty glasses.
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It’s regression to the mean. We are just a good 10 - 15% market correction from taming inflation
 
I'm about to have to sell a good chunk of Diamondback Energy (FANG) for a down payment on a home. Bought during pandemic lows and even though I know it's a good time to sell so hard to let any of these shares go. This is such a well-run, shareholder friendly, cash making machine. Should absolutely be at the top of anyone's list if you like oil.
 

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Trump Blames Biden For Strong Dollar—As US Currency Reaches New High Against Japanese Yen​



Former President Trump called the U.S. dollar’s new 34-year high against the yen a “disaster” on Tuesday, claiming it would harm U.S. manufacturers and force them to relocate plants overseas—echoing protectionist sentiments after reportedly exploring ideas about devaluing the dollar if he returns to the White House.

Trump claims the high valued currency will force U.S. manufacturers to move plants overseas. Associated Press© Provided by Forbes

Key Facts​

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday morning, Trump said the dollar’s new peak would be a “disaster for our manufacturers and others,” claiming it would make them “unable to compete and will be forced to either lose lots of business, or build plants, or whatever, in the ‘smart’ Countries.”

The dollar hit a 34-year high against the yen on Monday, rising to 154.85 yen versus one dollar—and is at 154.86 on Tuesday.

The former president blamed the White House for the strong dollar, claiming President Biden weakened his trade policies against China and Japan—who he said will now “pick apart the U.S.”

However, experts believe the dollar’s strength is likely related to the success of the U.S. economy compared to other nations, as well as rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s call to delay interest rate cuts, Bloomberg reported.

Trump is exploring options to devalue the dollar if he returns to office in November in order to address the U.S. trade deficit with countries like China and Japan, Politico reported—a move widely criticized by experts who say this could also contribute to inflation and raise prices for American consumers.

Key Background​

The former president claimed he enforced “limits” on China and Japan with trade policy. “When I was President, I spent a good deal of time telling Japan and China, in particular, you can’t do that,” Trump said on Monday. In 2017, Trump accused Japan of manipulating the value of the yen to hurt the U.S. economy. “They play the money market, they play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies,” Trump said. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is now Japan’s prime minister, called Trump’s accusation “totally inaccurate.” During his presidency, Trump also engaged in a prolonged trade war with China by enacting a 25% tariff on Chinese imports of steel, aluminum, and manufactured goods like televisions and solar panels. China responded by enacting their own 25% tariff on American goods. The trade war was eventually settled in 2020 after both sides signed a bilateral agreement, but not before it cost U.S. companies an estimated $1.7 trillion in stock prices, one study found.

Tangent​

Trump is meeting with former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso Tuesday after his criminal trial ends for the day at 2 p.m., Reuters reported. Aso, who currently serves as the vice president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, was the country’s deputy prime minister from 2012 through 2021. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said Aso’s visit was “personal activity” and not related to his government role. This is the second time Trump has hosted a world leader at Trump Tower since his hush money trial began. He hosted Polish President Andrzej Duda at the Fifth Avenue skyscraper last Wednesday. He also hosted British Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister David Cameron at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida shortly before the trial began.
 
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