I am so glad I'm not the fed now. You have more than one bubble....a stock market that needs a reset.....and giant child incoming as president.
There's my happy update just for you.
The Steross Market and Investing Thread
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There's my happy update just for you.
I am so glad I'm not the fed now. You have more than one bubble....a stock market that needs a reset.....and giant child incoming as president.
There's my happy update just for you.
I would have preferred no cut. But they’re saying only 2 in 2025 so that’s MUCH slower of a pace than markets priced in months ago.
inappropriate.name
New member
You’ll get half of it back tomorrow. Over reaction to a couple of words. Will digest it tonight and start back again.
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US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010
Consumers are ‘tapped out’ after years of high inflation and as pandemic-era savings have evaporated
Credit card defaults highest since 2010.
US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010
Consumers are ‘tapped out’ after years of high inflation and as pandemic-era savings have evaporatedwww.ft.com
Credit card defaults highest since 2010.
Hey it’s me again to add context. Big scary headlines but historically low and have hit a peak. Stop buying the fear.
Attachments
Your trend isn’t heading in the right direction…neither is the mortgage, auto, comm RE trend. Just because everything isn’t the worst it’s ever been simultaneously doesn’t mean things are heading in the right direction. Corrections are going to have to occur or the economy is going to have to get a huge boost soon.
There’ll be busts. Not all at the same time. Some will even be a positive. We need a housing bust right now. Consumer is still doing really well. Happened before it’ll happen again. Everyone is trying to be the next Steve Eisman who called the 2008 financial crisis. Look up what he’s saying right now.
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Some further context:
fredblog.stlouisfed.org
As the red line shows, relative to disposable income, credit card balances were actually slightly smaller in 2023 Q3 than they had been in 2020 Q1. Of course, interest rates have risen substantially over this period, so the cost of carrying a balance has increased.
Percent of available credit used isn't climbing either:
Having said all that, a recession in the next couple of years would not surprise me at all. Unemployment rate has started to turn upward and that has marked a recession nearly always:
And, we have had this pretty significant inversion of the yield curve which, again, historically does a pretty good job of telling us a recession is coming:
Exactly when, where and how is for smarter people than me. Not to ruin the board with getting too political, but if they actually do add a crap-ton of tariffs and fire a large portion of the federal workforce that might be enough to tip the balance. Whether that is a long term good thing or not, the short term disruption when we already have signs of recession coming would likely do it.
Three measures of US credit card debt | FRED Blog
fredblog.stlouisfed.org
As the red line shows, relative to disposable income, credit card balances were actually slightly smaller in 2023 Q3 than they had been in 2020 Q1. Of course, interest rates have risen substantially over this period, so the cost of carrying a balance has increased.
Percent of available credit used isn't climbing either:
Having said all that, a recession in the next couple of years would not surprise me at all. Unemployment rate has started to turn upward and that has marked a recession nearly always:
And, we have had this pretty significant inversion of the yield curve which, again, historically does a pretty good job of telling us a recession is coming:
Exactly when, where and how is for smarter people than me. Not to ruin the board with getting too political, but if they actually do add a crap-ton of tariffs and fire a large portion of the federal workforce that might be enough to tip the balance. Whether that is a long term good thing or not, the short term disruption when we already have signs of recession coming would likely do it.
There is no way out of all the bubbles that are bubbling and 36T.....and rapidly growing....of debt without a serious short term disruption or an extended period of blah economy. At some point the US has to take it's lumps economically and that is hard when none of our leadership care as much about issues as reelection.Some further context:
Three measures of US credit card debt | FRED Blog
As the red line shows, relative to disposable income, credit card balances were actually slightly smaller in 2023 Q3 than they had been in 2020 Q1. Of course, interest rates have risen substantially over this period, so the cost of carrying a balance has increased.
View attachment 9059
Percent of available credit used isn't climbing either:
View attachment 9060
Having said all that, a recession in the next couple of years would not surprise me at all. Unemployment rate has started to turn upward and that has marked a recession nearly always:
View attachment 9061
And, we have had this pretty significant inversion of the yield curve which, again, historically does a pretty good job of telling us a recession is coming:
View attachment 9062
Exactly when, where and how is for smarter people than me. Not to ruin the board with getting too political, but if they actually do add a crap-ton of tariffs and fire a large portion of the federal workforce that might be enough to tip the balance. Whether that is a long term good thing or not, the short term disruption when we already have signs of recession coming would likely do it.
She's got one foot in the grave. What's the point of insider trading when all it gets you is an extra jello in the old folks home?
mugatu
Ranger
Leaving more money to kids
Upgrading to raspberry or black cherry jello and not having to eat the lime is important at that age. Those luxuries require capital!
Is her “insider” trading illegal? How about violating the emoluments clause and Presidents? How about billionaires steering policy to their benefit? How about campaign money being free speech? We’re getting screwed by the uber rich and corporations to the max constantly. Old “one foot in the grave” should be the least of our concern. IMO
It should all be our concern. If any of us had the insider knowledge to gain 54% yoy in the market we would be retired and wealthy before the decade is done. But if any of us get caught with the information she has access to, we go to prison. Same deal with the incoming president-hes about to get a slap on the wrist for dozens of felonies because he has money and is about to assume the highest office in the land. The rules for thee but not for me mentality our elites have isn't a partisan issue.
I agree. My point was: is Nancy Pelosi the only one prospering or are both sides in on the grab? Martha Stewart was slammed because the real crooks needed a scape goat. IMO the sooner we realize the cards are rigged against us, the sooner We the people will pay closer attention to facts and truth and speak out about it in unity. No this is not a partisan issue, it’s considerably more important. This is also about the haves, and the have nots.
If that’s what you were saying it sure didn’t seem like it but I’m really bad at writing off script so maybe you did.
I posted about Nancy because she out does the others…..has a husband who is also connected to finance….has been there forever….and is far and away the most powerful of the big offenders. Look at Tuberville….he went from too dumb to keep a job coaching football to a better trader than any of us can afford.
Insider trading needs to be stopped by elected officials. To the letter of the law it may not be illegal but sure as hell is as dark grey as shades of grey get. Measures should be taken to the point there is no circumstance they can trade indiividual equities at all. Kudos to Biden for calling that out recently.
IMO that’s too small of a focus. The rich and powerful are turning our country into something other than a democratic republic. It’s apparently so much easier to buy elections with the money of billionaires and multi millionaires than to actually serve the majority of the people. How about cleaning up the dark money in elections. Public funding only! How about forcing the Supreme Court members to follow the exact laws that every other judge shall obey. Our legislators seem to only be interested in partisanship. So much so that compromise is nearly impossible. It’s much easier to put in judges who legislate from the bench. Citizens United is a prime example. Obviously the Supreme Court judges cater to the rich to become rich themselves. Clearly it’s the love of money that has transfigured our country into a form of oligarchy but with far too many hidden figures from scrutiny. What’s next? I fear fascism with a useful idiot at the head fulfilling every desire of the monied elite. Already the talking heads are announcing an illegal 2028 Trump presidency. It’s not just Congress critters getting rich off of insider trading, IMO it’s nearly the whole of visible government. If the DOJ is turned into a tool for retribution there will be no justice left in the country. If skilled personnel are replaced with ardent toadies then there is no telling how soon the corruption will sink us. May Day, SOS. There are now several persons in power proven to be above the law. How can normal working people combat such strength. Only by being truly informed, and not being duped so easily. Lazy people vote based on social media and thirty second sound bites. I’m fortunate enough to have a decent retirement. My wife and I have pensions, social security, oil
and gas leases, 403B , bullion and property. And yet we’re about as middle class as one can get. We live modestly. I hope the powers that be leave Social Security and Medicare alone. We PAID for it all of our lives it’s damned sure NOT an entitlement. The stock market seems rigged as well but in order to stay ahead of inflation one just about has to play their game. Not having a large amount to risk makes it even harder. I don’t know how much one would need to save and invest these days for younger people. We’ve got a lot of hard working people that can’t buy a house etc. and their frustration is visceral and understandable. I’m just as frustrated with the direction we’re going. May truth be revealed to the nation and anything other receive the scrutiny and the castigation it deserves. I’m promoting education. But I’m sure old “I love the uneducated”and sycophants will have all the answers to our collective problems. Obviously last sentence is sarcasm. May the Almighty help us to right this ship before it’s intentionally scuttled by the self serving only crowd.
I don't know, I think sometimes our government is so enormous and the problems so widespread that anytime someone mentions a single good idea everyone else muddles it up with their alternative concerns and then nothing happens.
While all of these other things are issues, do you really expect congress to tackle all of that at once?
I like the idea of the people telling congress, enough is enough, too many of you make more money than professional traders proving that you are inappropriately using your position, it must stop. Then when that issue is done, pick the next and get going on it.