Okstatekerr
Sheriff
Because they know their base won’t fact check. As a group, critical thinking isn’t a strength.
Israel under attack
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https://flip.it/KfXU66Stanford instructor removed for targeting Jewish students as ‘colonizers’ after Hamas attack on Israel
Anyone that doesn’t realize Cruz is lying just isn’t paying attention
This is a good article, thanks for sharing. The only thing I would add is around the provoked piece. It doesnt matter if one is "provoked" or not, it is never ok to target or kill innocent people. Terrorism is pure evil. But we have to understand the cause. Similar to when we were attacked on 9/11. It certainly wasn't because "we were free". It also led to us invading Iraq, who wasn't harboring terrorists, and completely destabilizing the country causing directly and indirectly over a million civilian deaths and the rise of the Islamic State, which was a terrorist organization.
What is going to be the human cost to the retaliation by Israel? It will be very high. But the author is right about double standards and false narratives.
HacklemanPoke
Deputy
We are possibly on the verge of seeing a humanitarian crisis that will be awful. 1,000,000 refugees w nowhere to go being asked to leave on a moments notice. If ratios hold that’s 500,000 children.
And Egypt is refusing to let them cross their border
From earlier this year, pretty interesting:
Polls Show Majority of Gazans Were Against Breaking Ceasefire; Hamas and Hezbollah Unpopular Among Key Arab Publics
Recent Washington Institute polls have tracked Gazans’ views on Hamas and the ceasefire with Israel, along with a wider regional decline in popularity for Hamas and Hezbollah.
Hamas and Hezbolah have caused a mess.
This is exactly right. Plus, a blockade allowing no food and water to people in a desert. It is very cruel, especially when keeping in mind this demographic.
Interesting article in Dutch newspaper NRC yesterday with professor Jeroen Gunning from King's College, on the timing and motivation of Hamas, also the politics within Hamas. Source:https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/10/12/voor-hamas-was-het-nu-of-nooit-a4177039 + google translate
"For Hamas, it was now or never."
At first glance, Hamas' offensive seems self-destructive and irrational in addition to being unprecedentedly cruel. But Professor Jeroen Gunning, who knows the movement well, does see a logic. "Hamas is concerned with the long term."
by Melvyn Ingleby October 12, 2023 at 16:50
Blind killing intent seems at first glance to be the only explanation for Hamas' massacre of Israeli civilians on Saturday. Why else mow down elderly people and children? What did Hamas hope to achieve with this? Did it not see that Israel would respond with a mass bombardment of Gaza? Or does it not care at all about civilian lives, even those of Palestinians?
Those who know Hamas well, however, do see clear motivations and long-term goals behind the offensive. "These are certainly not limited to just sowing terror," says Professor Jeroen Gunning of King's College London, who has been researching Hamas for nearly three decades. "The violence is terrible and inexcusable, but if you reduce Hamas to a gang of irrational terrorists, you will never understand why this is happening."
To understand the violence - "and understanding is not the same as justifying it," Gunning stresses - he says you have to go back to the context behind it. In doing so, he points not only to the hopeless situation in Gaza and the ever-increasing Israeli colonization of the West Bank, but also to the internal debate within Hamas on how to respond. In this, moderates and radicals have traditionally been diametrically opposed, Gunning said. "That the radicals now have the upper hand is largely the result of Israel's repression and failure to find a political solution."
Why did Hamas begin this offensive?"
In Hamas' eyes, it was now or never. It was in dire straits in numerous ways. Israel has the most right-wing government in its history, openly talks about annexing most of Palestinian territory and, even before this escalation this year, killed 230 Palestinians in the West Bank. Internationally, Israel is increasingly getting a free hand in this, and even Saudi Arabia, once an outspoken advocate of the Palestinian cause, was recently normalizing ties with Israel, as were six Arab states that had done so before. Finally, within Gaza itself, Hamas was being challenged by more radical groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which recently seemed to have the upper hand in armed resistance to Israel. So Hamas' reasoning seems to be: we must do something before the Palestinian cause is forgotten."
And the civilian population in Gaza just has to bear it?"
That's the terrible thing. Civilians don't want to become 'martyrs,' they want a normal life. But the problem is precisely that that doesn't exist in Gaza. The population has been living de facto in an open-air prison since the 2007 blockade. Poverty is enormous, there is no perspective and the dreamed Palestinian state is further away than ever. All this increases the acceptance of violence. No one wants to be bombed, but part of the population is willing to bear the consequences of Hamas' offensive in the hope that something will change. A poll from September this year shows that 45 percent of them would support Hamas in elections versus only 28 percent support for Fatah [the secular and internationally recognized branch of the Palestinian movement]. How things stand now is unknown, but in the past support for Hamas actually increased after confrontations with Israel."
Why does Hamas commit atrocities against Israeli civilians?"
On the one hand, atrocity is part of Hamas' strategy. The horrific images of elderly or children killed and the fact that twelve hundred Israelis were killed in one weekend are meant to create panic and undermine confidence in the Israeli government. On the other hand, it is also a form of revenge, because Israel kills civilians just as much. Between 2008 and last month, according to UN figures, there were 21 times more Palestinian civilian deaths than Israeli ones."
Isn't Hamas' brutality simply part of its nature as a terror group?"
Hamas does not have a fixed 'nature.' Hamas is not immutable or monolithic. It is a group that has often changed course, has different branches and is very divided between radicals and pragmatists. Which side gets the upper hand depends on the "opportunity structure" in which Hamas operates. When radicals get more opportunities, for example due to increasing Israeli violence and lack of political solutions, you get a more radical Hamas. But when pragmatists get opportunities, as when Hamas participated in Palestinian elections in 2006, the radicals get more sidelined."
How did this internal dynamic play out in recent years?
"After the 2014 Gaza war, Hamas entered a period of relative calm during which the pragmatists tried to break Hamas' isolation. Despite previous failures, they sought rapprochement with Fatah, and in 2017 they published a new manifesto. Although many media outlets continue to quote from the old 1988 charter, which is extremely anti-Semitic and contains phrases such as "Islam will crush Israel," the new manifesto makes a clear distinction between the Zionist project and the Jewish people and advocates religious tolerance. Moreover, it accepts a return to the 1967 borders, implying a two-state solution, although Hamas refuses to recognize Israel.
"But these changes of course did nothing for the pragmatists. Negotiations with Fatah failed, Hamas remained internationally reviled, Gaza's blockade held, and Israel, on the contrary, took more and more Palestinian land, encouraged by the administration of U.S. President Trump. As a result, the pragmatists in Gaza came under fire from the more radical members of Hamas and from other militant groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It may sound strange to our ears, but the latter actually accused Hamas of becoming part of 'the system' that sustained Israel."
Is this offensive the work of the radicals?"
I think so. The attack was prepared and carried out by the Qassam Brigades, who are traditionally more radical and at odds with the political wing. Because Israeli intelligence agencies have many informants in Gaza, the decision-making will have remained with a very small circle. There are media reports that Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader who lives in Qatar, did not know about it for a long time."
How will it proceed?"
That depends in part on the role of Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. The report in The Wall Street Journal that Iran helped prepare the Hamas offensive has so far been denied by both the U.S. and Israel, but if evidence of it does surface, it could lead to a major escalation. So far, that has not been the case. Israel and Hezbollah have been firing rockets back and forth, but Hezbollah seems cautious because Lebanon is already on the precipice and there is little appetite for war.
"In addition, the question is how far Israel will go in Gaza. Israel has already said it is waging war against 'human beasts,' is now cutting off all of Gaza from power, water and food, and is carrying out massive bombings. But how long the 300,000 reservists Israel has called up will be deployed for a ground offensive remains to be seen. Such an offensive could cost many Israeli lives because Hamas has tunnels and mines all over the place and knows the terrain better. Hamas is probably gambling that Israel will eventually get bogged down and that international pressure to negotiate will increase as the civilian death toll rises, just as it did in the 2014 Gaza war."
(continued)
"For Hamas, it was now or never."
At first glance, Hamas' offensive seems self-destructive and irrational in addition to being unprecedentedly cruel. But Professor Jeroen Gunning, who knows the movement well, does see a logic. "Hamas is concerned with the long term."
by Melvyn Ingleby October 12, 2023 at 16:50
Blind killing intent seems at first glance to be the only explanation for Hamas' massacre of Israeli civilians on Saturday. Why else mow down elderly people and children? What did Hamas hope to achieve with this? Did it not see that Israel would respond with a mass bombardment of Gaza? Or does it not care at all about civilian lives, even those of Palestinians?
Those who know Hamas well, however, do see clear motivations and long-term goals behind the offensive. "These are certainly not limited to just sowing terror," says Professor Jeroen Gunning of King's College London, who has been researching Hamas for nearly three decades. "The violence is terrible and inexcusable, but if you reduce Hamas to a gang of irrational terrorists, you will never understand why this is happening."
To understand the violence - "and understanding is not the same as justifying it," Gunning stresses - he says you have to go back to the context behind it. In doing so, he points not only to the hopeless situation in Gaza and the ever-increasing Israeli colonization of the West Bank, but also to the internal debate within Hamas on how to respond. In this, moderates and radicals have traditionally been diametrically opposed, Gunning said. "That the radicals now have the upper hand is largely the result of Israel's repression and failure to find a political solution."
Why did Hamas begin this offensive?"
In Hamas' eyes, it was now or never. It was in dire straits in numerous ways. Israel has the most right-wing government in its history, openly talks about annexing most of Palestinian territory and, even before this escalation this year, killed 230 Palestinians in the West Bank. Internationally, Israel is increasingly getting a free hand in this, and even Saudi Arabia, once an outspoken advocate of the Palestinian cause, was recently normalizing ties with Israel, as were six Arab states that had done so before. Finally, within Gaza itself, Hamas was being challenged by more radical groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which recently seemed to have the upper hand in armed resistance to Israel. So Hamas' reasoning seems to be: we must do something before the Palestinian cause is forgotten."
And the civilian population in Gaza just has to bear it?"
That's the terrible thing. Civilians don't want to become 'martyrs,' they want a normal life. But the problem is precisely that that doesn't exist in Gaza. The population has been living de facto in an open-air prison since the 2007 blockade. Poverty is enormous, there is no perspective and the dreamed Palestinian state is further away than ever. All this increases the acceptance of violence. No one wants to be bombed, but part of the population is willing to bear the consequences of Hamas' offensive in the hope that something will change. A poll from September this year shows that 45 percent of them would support Hamas in elections versus only 28 percent support for Fatah [the secular and internationally recognized branch of the Palestinian movement]. How things stand now is unknown, but in the past support for Hamas actually increased after confrontations with Israel."
Why does Hamas commit atrocities against Israeli civilians?"
On the one hand, atrocity is part of Hamas' strategy. The horrific images of elderly or children killed and the fact that twelve hundred Israelis were killed in one weekend are meant to create panic and undermine confidence in the Israeli government. On the other hand, it is also a form of revenge, because Israel kills civilians just as much. Between 2008 and last month, according to UN figures, there were 21 times more Palestinian civilian deaths than Israeli ones."
Isn't Hamas' brutality simply part of its nature as a terror group?"
Hamas does not have a fixed 'nature.' Hamas is not immutable or monolithic. It is a group that has often changed course, has different branches and is very divided between radicals and pragmatists. Which side gets the upper hand depends on the "opportunity structure" in which Hamas operates. When radicals get more opportunities, for example due to increasing Israeli violence and lack of political solutions, you get a more radical Hamas. But when pragmatists get opportunities, as when Hamas participated in Palestinian elections in 2006, the radicals get more sidelined."
How did this internal dynamic play out in recent years?
"After the 2014 Gaza war, Hamas entered a period of relative calm during which the pragmatists tried to break Hamas' isolation. Despite previous failures, they sought rapprochement with Fatah, and in 2017 they published a new manifesto. Although many media outlets continue to quote from the old 1988 charter, which is extremely anti-Semitic and contains phrases such as "Islam will crush Israel," the new manifesto makes a clear distinction between the Zionist project and the Jewish people and advocates religious tolerance. Moreover, it accepts a return to the 1967 borders, implying a two-state solution, although Hamas refuses to recognize Israel.
"But these changes of course did nothing for the pragmatists. Negotiations with Fatah failed, Hamas remained internationally reviled, Gaza's blockade held, and Israel, on the contrary, took more and more Palestinian land, encouraged by the administration of U.S. President Trump. As a result, the pragmatists in Gaza came under fire from the more radical members of Hamas and from other militant groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It may sound strange to our ears, but the latter actually accused Hamas of becoming part of 'the system' that sustained Israel."
Is this offensive the work of the radicals?"
I think so. The attack was prepared and carried out by the Qassam Brigades, who are traditionally more radical and at odds with the political wing. Because Israeli intelligence agencies have many informants in Gaza, the decision-making will have remained with a very small circle. There are media reports that Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader who lives in Qatar, did not know about it for a long time."
How will it proceed?"
That depends in part on the role of Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. The report in The Wall Street Journal that Iran helped prepare the Hamas offensive has so far been denied by both the U.S. and Israel, but if evidence of it does surface, it could lead to a major escalation. So far, that has not been the case. Israel and Hezbollah have been firing rockets back and forth, but Hezbollah seems cautious because Lebanon is already on the precipice and there is little appetite for war.
"In addition, the question is how far Israel will go in Gaza. Israel has already said it is waging war against 'human beasts,' is now cutting off all of Gaza from power, water and food, and is carrying out massive bombings. But how long the 300,000 reservists Israel has called up will be deployed for a ground offensive remains to be seen. Such an offensive could cost many Israeli lives because Hamas has tunnels and mines all over the place and knows the terrain better. Hamas is probably gambling that Israel will eventually get bogged down and that international pressure to negotiate will increase as the civilian death toll rises, just as it did in the 2014 Gaza war."
(continued)
But can negotiations take place at all after such violence?
"Hamas does have that as its goal. For non-state armed groups, the use of extreme violence is often precisely a way to be taken seriously and force the other side into negotiations. Hamas hopes that now the Gulf states in particular will say to Israel: you see, it can't go on like this, the Palestinian suffering must be alleviated. Saudi Arabia already seems to be moving in that direction.
"Yet I feel that Hamas has misjudged the other effects of its outbreak of violence. Last weekend's atrocities went so far that there will be more international support for Israel's revenge. Moreover, there is also a flip side to Israel's humiliation: precisely because the radicals within Hamas succeeded in staggering Israel's invincibility, the most radical figures in Netanyahu's far-right government will now have more room to prove that invincibility in the most brutal way. This is the paradox that costs the lives of so many civilians: the radicals on both sides are playing into each other's hands."
Jeroen Gunning (1966) is professor of Middle East Politics and Conflict Studies at the renowned King's College London. He previously worked at the universities of Durham and Oxford and is one of the founders of 'critical terrorism studies', which, since the attacks of 9/11, critically questions the dominant discourse around terrorism and the fight against it. His study Hamas in Politics (2007) is considered a standard work. Currently, he is primarily researching the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
"Hamas does have that as its goal. For non-state armed groups, the use of extreme violence is often precisely a way to be taken seriously and force the other side into negotiations. Hamas hopes that now the Gulf states in particular will say to Israel: you see, it can't go on like this, the Palestinian suffering must be alleviated. Saudi Arabia already seems to be moving in that direction.
"Yet I feel that Hamas has misjudged the other effects of its outbreak of violence. Last weekend's atrocities went so far that there will be more international support for Israel's revenge. Moreover, there is also a flip side to Israel's humiliation: precisely because the radicals within Hamas succeeded in staggering Israel's invincibility, the most radical figures in Netanyahu's far-right government will now have more room to prove that invincibility in the most brutal way. This is the paradox that costs the lives of so many civilians: the radicals on both sides are playing into each other's hands."
Jeroen Gunning (1966) is professor of Middle East Politics and Conflict Studies at the renowned King's College London. He previously worked at the universities of Durham and Oxford and is one of the founders of 'critical terrorism studies', which, since the attacks of 9/11, critically questions the dominant discourse around terrorism and the fight against it. His study Hamas in Politics (2007) is considered a standard work. Currently, he is primarily researching the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Now Hamas is calling for a Day of Rage in the US
HacklemanPoke
Deputy
Thanks for this.
Love how the author claims he is not justifying the terrorism and then spends multiple paragraphs justifying it.
I am up to consume, read, and learn from other perspectives, but this is ain’t it.
Hamas is a horrible terrorist group soley built to destroy Israel. Yes there are reasons for terrorism, but to attempt to equate actions is trying to justify.
Understand =/= justify. There is no justification. Its important to understand the "why", so it can be better countered in the future, through a variety of means.
Fair enough. I agree it is important to understand.
Just seeing too much of people looking to both-sides this conflict so that may have colored my comprehension of his article. Maybe I was reading too much and assuming his thoughts.
But it read like justification.
Understanding can feel like that because of the nature of terrorist attacks. Its senseless, vile mass murder. But the motivations are more complex than that. They were for 9/11 too.
The movers and shakers all refuse them. You’d think Qatar, the loudest and biggest financial procurement for hamas, would have some assistance.
The administration for Hamas say this has been planned for 2 years. At least, according to subtitles.
Nobody wants them for a variety of reasons. Hamas wants them to stay because without them they will run out of cannon fodder.
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