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Harris 2024 election thread
- Thread starter Pokey
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Interesting insights on the state of the race from David Plouffe, senior advisor to Harris and never known to be an optimist.
Plouffe: "I can't speak to the public polls. I spend very little time looking at them...most of them are horseshit. Some of them maybe close but generally I'd say any poll that shows Kamala Harris up four to five points in one of these seven states,ignore it. Any point that shows Donald Trump up like that, ignore it. This thing's very close; it's a margin of race but again I'd rather be us than him because I think we have the ability to get to 49 and a half or 50. I'm much more confident about that than Donald Trump but it's going to be close all the way in so I think we're doing what we can to to be conservative in the data"
"I think I it may be that our internal data is exactly right but if I were to hazard a guess I think it may be under counting her [Harris] strength amongst Republican leaning independents so, we won't put that in the bank but let's hope that's right"
Plouffe: "You'll have more younger voters as a percentage of it...as people age [in & out of] the electorate. Turnout is the hardest thing for any campaign to predict so obviously you've got historical data, you've got polling. So you're asking people whether they're going to vote or not; you draw some conclusions based on that. We're beginning to get early vote data in:who's requested ballots, who sent them back. In a lot of states within 10-12 days we'll have people voting in person early so that's really when you begin to get a sense of how many people who are first time voters are showing up in that early vote. How many of them didn't vote in '20. How many voted in '20 but not '22."
"Our assumption is [turnout] is going to be in the 2020 range...this is a more interesting race to people. I think that Kamala Harris has created a lot of energy on our side. The enthusiasm gap has been eroded that Trump had in [his] 2024 1.0campaign"
The one thing that I think is pretty constant and I think most observers of this would agree...is his sort of base of foundation is built on a rickety element which is: all of these people who don't have vote history, who may say in a poll they're going to vote, but as you and I know that's the toughest thing to do in politics, is to get that cohort all the way through the funnel."
"We like what we're seeing in the early vote data so far. We particularly like what we're not seeing on the Trump data, which is there's not an army of incels showing up in early vote with no voting history so you know, maybe they'll show up on Election Day we'll see. But so far there's not a leading edge that something crazy is afoot there."
"But I'd say a couple things one is I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight up Republicans or independents who [lean]Republicans. We're seeing continued strength there and that matters a great deal given how big those cohorts are...and we're being conservative there as well we're not overstating our numbers internally but I think you see the leading edge of things that could be quite positive". Plouffe elaborates: "And then again I think Trump is just incredibly reliant on voters who've either never voted before, haven't voted in a longtime, [or] never voted Republican. So you know that's a big challenge.
On Trump not doing another debate and his rallies
Plouffe: "I could spend three hours talking about what's going on here with the psychology. I mean what's clear is his campaign, they knew what happened in the first debate. They don't want him to debate again. I also think they see his rallies which are a disaster."
Plouffe: "I can't speak to the public polls. I spend very little time looking at them...most of them are horseshit. Some of them maybe close but generally I'd say any poll that shows Kamala Harris up four to five points in one of these seven states,ignore it. Any point that shows Donald Trump up like that, ignore it. This thing's very close; it's a margin of race but again I'd rather be us than him because I think we have the ability to get to 49 and a half or 50. I'm much more confident about that than Donald Trump but it's going to be close all the way in so I think we're doing what we can to to be conservative in the data"
"I think I it may be that our internal data is exactly right but if I were to hazard a guess I think it may be under counting her [Harris] strength amongst Republican leaning independents so, we won't put that in the bank but let's hope that's right"
Plouffe: "You'll have more younger voters as a percentage of it...as people age [in & out of] the electorate. Turnout is the hardest thing for any campaign to predict so obviously you've got historical data, you've got polling. So you're asking people whether they're going to vote or not; you draw some conclusions based on that. We're beginning to get early vote data in:who's requested ballots, who sent them back. In a lot of states within 10-12 days we'll have people voting in person early so that's really when you begin to get a sense of how many people who are first time voters are showing up in that early vote. How many of them didn't vote in '20. How many voted in '20 but not '22."
"Our assumption is [turnout] is going to be in the 2020 range...this is a more interesting race to people. I think that Kamala Harris has created a lot of energy on our side. The enthusiasm gap has been eroded that Trump had in [his] 2024 1.0campaign"
The one thing that I think is pretty constant and I think most observers of this would agree...is his sort of base of foundation is built on a rickety element which is: all of these people who don't have vote history, who may say in a poll they're going to vote, but as you and I know that's the toughest thing to do in politics, is to get that cohort all the way through the funnel."
"We like what we're seeing in the early vote data so far. We particularly like what we're not seeing on the Trump data, which is there's not an army of incels showing up in early vote with no voting history so you know, maybe they'll show up on Election Day we'll see. But so far there's not a leading edge that something crazy is afoot there."
"But I'd say a couple things one is I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight up Republicans or independents who [lean]Republicans. We're seeing continued strength there and that matters a great deal given how big those cohorts are...and we're being conservative there as well we're not overstating our numbers internally but I think you see the leading edge of things that could be quite positive". Plouffe elaborates: "And then again I think Trump is just incredibly reliant on voters who've either never voted before, haven't voted in a longtime, [or] never voted Republican. So you know that's a big challenge.
On Trump not doing another debate and his rallies
Plouffe: "I could spend three hours talking about what's going on here with the psychology. I mean what's clear is his campaign, they knew what happened in the first debate. They don't want him to debate again. I also think they see his rallies which are a disaster."
"You heard his words, coming from him ... Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged" -- oh wow -- Kamala Harris at her rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, plays the clip of Trump telling Maria Bartiromo that he would use the military against his domestic foes
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Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads
"You heard his words, coming from him ... Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged" -- oh wow -- Kamala Harris at her rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, plays the clip of Trump telling Maria Bartiromo that he would use the military against his domestic foes
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Stillwater Townie
Deputy
This is the bizarre off the wall lead headline on InfoWars. It might as well be from the Onion:
Huh, is Roger Stone still believing it will end up being Michelle Obama? Anyway, Harris kind of had a rough time on her Fox News interview on Wednesday but looked like had more sense than Trump did Tuesday. Afterward, Fox commentators were predictably rough on her, but not too bad. At least one of them said it was a good time for her as well as for her interviewer, Bret Baier.
While the senseless, mentally disturbed fools at InfoWars have Trump up by 90% in the "real polls", today, 10/16, the Marist poll had Harris increasing her lead from their last poll now leading 52 to 47% with likely voters. For registered voters 51 to 48%. Hopefully, it's an indicator that polls are starting to break toward her way.
EXCLUSIVE: Desperate Deep State Could Stage An Attack On Kamala To Swap Her Out Before Election
Democrats are desperate to change the trajectory of the race which is currently favoring Trump with just a few weeks to go until Election DayHuh, is Roger Stone still believing it will end up being Michelle Obama? Anyway, Harris kind of had a rough time on her Fox News interview on Wednesday but looked like had more sense than Trump did Tuesday. Afterward, Fox commentators were predictably rough on her, but not too bad. At least one of them said it was a good time for her as well as for her interviewer, Bret Baier.
While the senseless, mentally disturbed fools at InfoWars have Trump up by 90% in the "real polls", today, 10/16, the Marist poll had Harris increasing her lead from their last poll now leading 52 to 47% with likely voters. For registered voters 51 to 48%. Hopefully, it's an indicator that polls are starting to break toward her way.
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Stillwater Townie
Deputy
Kamala Harris vs. Fox News: ‘She totally schooled Bret Baier’ | Reaction
Here's reaction to the Vice President's interview with a hostile network on Wednesday night
Kamala Harris vs. Fox News: ‘She totally schooled Bret Baier’ | Reaction
Here's reaction to the Vice President's interview with a hostile network on Wednesday nightwww.nj.com
Well…that’s an interesting take. Her campaign was essentially over before this interview put a merciful bullet in its head. I’ve been saying it for a couple of weeks now…they should have left her in the basement. She got dragged on national television.
PF5
Ranger
meanwhile trump refuses a 2nd debate with Harris, refuses 60 minutes interview, backed out of a CNBC interview, and would never do an interview with a CNN Harris follower...why? cuz he can't handle tough questions, and she did...and all baier did was constantly interrupt her and talked over her...did she dodge some questions? yes did she hold her own? yes did she get up and walk away? no (trump did) did she whine about the questioning? no (trump did)...
Stillwater Townie
Deputy
Then do you proudly stand with Alex Jones and his close friends, such as Robert Barnes, Mike Adams and probably Roger Stone who say that Trump is leading by 90% in the real polls?
No. I also don't stand with anyone blind enough to say that she "totally schooled Bret Bair".
She didn't school him.
This also didn't happen....
That interview sucked all the way around. Both parties got visibly frustrated and neither got the result they wanted. Bret Bair/fox news tried too hard.
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