Conference Realignment - What's next?

[PorcupinePoke]

Note to everyone here. I know the private equity thing sounds stupid and scary, but understand the details have yet to come out. The Big 12 will not sacrifice a ton of its incoming revenue for this. Basically think of this as a somewhat expensive loan against the Big 12's future income. The Big 12 needs a cash infusion now in order to keep pace with the B1G and SEC in the short term. Then when next contract cycle hits the expectation is that the gap will be significantly narrowed. Also, I believe the expectation is that the Big 12 will end up making more money because of the connections and assistance of the Private Equity group. Ideally, everyone will make more money together than they would have apart.

Also, this is almost certainly not the lone source of money they are pursuing. We already know about the conference naming rights deal. I would expect there are several other things Yormark is working behind the scenes.

Long term here I'm very optimistic with our ability to (at a minimum) stay on the heels of the B1G and SEC. We need to trust Yormark and the process. I fully expect that in 5 years things will look pretty different from what everyone thought it would. The Big 12 is down now, but it is FAR from out. I believe Oklahoma State's future is much more likely to be IN the top level group than outside of it. Contrast that with the PAC2 and the bottom half of the ACC who are much more likely to be relegated 5 years from now.

 

[Pokengineer]

Has anyone heard timelines on the ACC implosion. Some people still act like it's coming this summer.

 

[Verbal]

Part of the original reporting. That is how the private equity group is valuing the Big 12 and why they are interested in investing in them in the first place.

Big 12 considering private equity investment of up to $1 billion for as much as 20% of conference

The proposed deal with a Luxembourg-based firm would bring a massive influx of cash to the league

www.cbssports.com

Thank you. I had assumed the $5B deal would be a 10 yr deal. The way this article is worded it would be 5 yr.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

Thank you. I had assumed the $5B deal would be a 10 yr deal. The way this article is worded it would be 5 yr.

Yeah, due to the instability of everything and projected growth of live sports short deals are the thing right now. That is why the ACC so royally screwed up. They locked in their deal all the way to 2036.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

Has anyone heard timelines on the ACC implosion. Some people still act like it's coming this summer.

The truth is few (if anyone) really know. There are a TON of factors involved. With the Clemson/FSU court battles something could happen in the next month or two, but it seems unlikely. The biggest possibility of something soon is a settlement. That happens behind closed doors so no one really knows, but it seems unlikely too as there is little pressuring either side into it. Also, Clemson is asking for a partial summary judgement that they keep their media rights if they leave regardless of the GoR. That would definitely kill the ACC, but it too seems unlikely. That gets ruled on next month I believe.

Some are saying FSU will officially declare they are leaving without a settlement, but that makes no sense to me. It would be like signing and agreement to buy a car without negotiating a price. The ACC would have them by the balls.

There has also been a lot of talk about what the Josh Pate tweet means. He is respected and people seem to think it must be related to something happening soon. Some are saying the ACC still might vote to dissolve the conference before SMU, Stanford, and Cal become voting members. However, that would cause INSTANT court battles as there is no written pathway to it in the ACC bylaws. Possible, but seems small.

The only other thing I could think of that might cause major action soon is if ESPN decides to declare early that they won't be renewing the ACC contract under the existing terms (seeking renegotiation). Technically I think even renegotiating it would void the ACC GoR as of 2027. However, few think they will do that before their deadline of March 2025. The only reason I can see why they would is they want to make sure their proprietary media agreements don't get disclosed by the court battles.

In summary, the only thing suggesting to me something big will happen this summer is the Josh Pate tweet. People seem to think he wouldn't put that out there unless it was solid. I don't see anything else suggesting action, but this could just be the calm before the storm. My best guess is it will be sometime next year before anyone officially declares an exit. March 2025 for ESPN renewall is the biggest upcoming deadline. That could determine if the Big 12 gets to eat at the ACC table.

Sorry for the long post.

 

[Pokengineer]

The truth is few (if anyone) really know. There are a TON of factors involved. With the Clemson/FSU court battles something could happen in the next month or two, but it seems unlikely. The biggest possibility of something soon is a settlement. That happens behind closed doors so no one really knows, but it seems unlikely too as there is little pressuring either side into it. Also, Clemson is asking for a partial summary judgement that they keep their media rights if they leave regardless of the GoR. That would definitely kill the ACC, but it too seems unlikely. That gets ruled on next month I believe.

Some are saying FSU will officially declare they are leaving without a settlement, but that makes no sense to me. It would be like signing and agreement to buy a car without negotiating a price. The ACC would have them by the balls.

There has also been a lot of talk about what the Josh Pate tweet means. He is respected and people seem to think it must be related to something happening soon. Some are saying the ACC still might vote to dissolve the conference before SMU, Stanford, and Cal become voting members. However, that would cause INSTANT court battles as there is no written pathway to it in the ACC bylaws. Possible, but seems small.

The only other thing I could think of that might cause major action soon is if ESPN decides to declare early that they won't be renewing the ACC contract under the existing terms (seeking renegotiation). Technically I think even renegotiating it would void the ACC GoR as of 2027. However, few think they will do that before their deadline of March 2025. The only reason I can see why they would is they want to make sure their proprietary media agreements don't get disclosed by the court battles.

In summary, the only thing suggesting to me something big will happen this summer is the Josh Pate tweet. People seem to think he wouldn't put that out there unless it was solid. I don't see anything else suggesting action, but this could just be the calm before the storm. My best guess is it will be sometime next year before anyone officially declares an exit. March 2025 for ESPN renewall is the biggest upcoming deadline. That could determine if the Big 12 gets to eat at the ACC table.

Sorry for the long post.

Don't apologize for that being long. It was the best summary I've seen on topic. I couldn't find this anywhere.

 

[Verbal]

Yeah, due to the instability of everything and projected growth of live sports short deals are the thing right now. That is why the ACC so royally screwed up. They locked in their deal all the way to 2036.

Wasn't the B1Gs new contract 7 yrs and the SECs for 10 yrs? Any idea why the BigXIIs new contract would be for less than that?

 

[mugatu]

Wasn't the B1Gs new contract 7 yrs and the SECs for 10 yrs? Any idea why the BigXIIs new contract would be for less than that?

I'm no expert but my thought is that maybe since B12 was trying realky hard to get a deal done before Pac12 so they went short so there wasn't as much pressure to eek out as much money as possible... timeline was the most important driver. The thought was that the value would increase over the next few years and they'd essentially get the money back on the next contract.

 

[OSU79]

I'm no expert but my thought is that maybe since B12 was trying realky hard to get a deal done before Pac12 so they went short so there wasn't as much pressure to eek out as much money as possible... timeline was the most important driver. The thought was that the value would increase over the next few years and they'd essentially get the money back on the next contract.

If that was it, it was a helluva plan. I'd hate to see where we'd be today if we hadn't hired Yormark.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

Wasn't the B1Gs new contract 7 yrs and the SECs for 10 yrs? Any idea why the BigXIIs new contract would be for less than that?

Big 12 signed at a significant discount. They wanted a short deal, but also wanted to get it in fast as that is what allowed them to surpass the PAC. Had they not, they would have likely gotten a significantly smaller deal and the PAC probably would have survived.

Anyway, a short deal allows them to re-up in several years when they can much more closely compete with the B1G and SEC. Now I don't think it will match them, but I definitely think it will grow WAY more than their contract will. Minimal growth (if any) for the B1G, pretty good growth for the SEC that will surpass the B1G, and very very good growth for the Big 12 that will have us knocking at the B1G's door. My guess is around $10 mil behind.

 

[HacklemanPoke]

Account on X that goes by MHver3 and seems to be tied to WVU is always a good read when it comes to expansion prognostication.

His latest thoughts indicate the Big12 is getting ready to score w private equity. Basically a PE firm infuses hordes of cash which helps close the gap and in turn would get 2 board seats and a share of international revenue when Yormark cuts deals internationally.

Also one of his latest nuggets suggests that FSU and Clemson might not be targets of either BiG or sec leaving room for them in the Big12.

I am dubious about this but it could be a possibility if some rumors about sec not wanting them and BiG wanting ND and UNC come to fruition.

 

[cowboyinexile]

Account on X that goes by MHver3 and seems to be tied to WVU is always a good read when it comes to expansion prognostication.

His latest thoughts indicate the Big12 is getting ready to score w private equity. Basically a PE firm infuses hordes of cash which helps close the gap and in turn would get 2 board seats and a share of international revenue when Yormark cuts deals internationally.

Also one of his latest nuggets suggests that FSU and Clemson might not be targets of either BiG or sec leaving room for them in the Big12.

I am dubious about this but it could be a possibility if some rumors about sec not wanting them and BiG wanting ND and UNC come to fruition.

I don't buy it. The PE thing is what it is and at this point some sort of deal seems like a definite possibility. As far as FSU and Clemson no way they are considering bolting the ACC and paying that sort of buyout without assurances from the SEC or Big 10 that they have a landing spot.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

I don't buy it. The PE thing is what it is and at this point some sort of deal seems like a definite possibility. As far as FSU and Clemson no way they are considering bolting the ACC and paying that sort of buyout without assurances from the SEC or Big 10 that they have a landing spot.

Well they won't pay the money before they do. This lawsuit gets them the ability to leave not straight up leaving. A negotiated settlement would set an exit price and terms. Then they can start having discussions with conferences.

Unless the SEC and ESPN are involved in the negotiations. Then moving to the SEC could actually be part of the deal. It can't work that way with the Big Ten though.

 

[HacklemanPoke]

Well they won't pay the money before they do. This lawsuit gets them the ability to leave not straight up leaving. A negotiated settlement would set an exit price and terms. Then they can start having discussions with conferences.

Unless the SEC and ESPN are involved in the negotiations. Then moving to the SEC could actually be part of the deal. It can't work that way with the Big Ten though.

I’m interested to see where this goes. FSU and Clemson want out but neither are AAU so if we stay w current conferences they probably wouldn’t get invites to BiG10. Miami, Notre Dame and North Carolina are and there are rumors that Big10 has standing offers to Notre Dame and North Carolina. If FSU and Clemson are successful in getting out it would seem based on past experience and statements the Big10 might not want them and there are rumors the SEC doesn’t want them. If ND and UNC depart for Big10 FSU and Clemson don’t get invite to SEC they will not stay in ACC. ESPN and Fox will “force” their hand economically to move that inventory along w a couple of other schools to the Big12.

I love the conspiracy theories out there.

One rumor is that Nebraska who has lost their AAU accreditation and is seen as a damaged blue blood (albeit w a rabid fan base and a strong tv draw) could be looking to move conferences. A scenario I’ve seen has them in a swap w aTm who is AAU and has left once bc of Texas.

I think the more realistic probability is we get a super conference of football only for 24-36 schools. Another conference below that of 50-70 schools for football only. Other sports realign into conferences based on geography and traditional rivalries.

I just don’t see networks or streaming services paying for OU vs Vanderbilt or Oregon vs Minnesota. They will force the move to blue bloods vs blue bloods. I also don’t see them paying up for a March Madness that doesn’t include traditional powers like Kansas and Duke ( or posssibly Kentucky or North Carolina) or Cinderella stories or new blue bloods like UConn, Villanova or Gonzaga.

To go further I don’t see how the small super conference economically survives long term. Players will unionize. There will be drafts and free agent rules There’s no way there is enough money there to keep 100 or even 75 players on a roster. Let’s say that number is 60 which is bigger than NFL. That leaves 25 players per school or 750 players that under today’s model would have gone to blue bloods who now can go to the other schools not in the super league. Also let’s talk stadiums and facilities. If you now have a payroll of 100’s of millions of dollars (players, coaches, admin) how do you build new stadiums. Norman or Cleveland county nor Tuscalossa nor Oxford, MS will pass a tax to pay for these things. Maybe not in my lifetime but we will come full circle to regional conferences.

 

[Cowboyshoopspride]

It’s all fun and games right now, but the golden goose has been shot. And the ones who did it are standing over it watching it bleed while counting their money.

Will shake out completely differently in <10 years.

 

[Backin82]

It’s all fun and games right now, but the golden goose has been shot. And the ones who did it are standing over it watching it bleed while counting their money.

Will shake out completely differently in <10 years.

I am hoping for a collapse of the system either through consumers leaving or legislative action being taken to fix it. Maybe both... Either way, the current trajectory is unsustainable.

 

[OSU79]

I think the more realistic probability is we get a super conference of football only for 24-36 schools. Another conference below that of 50-70 schools for football only. Other sports realign into conferences based on geography and traditional rivalries.

I just don’t see networks or streaming services paying for OU vs Vanderbilt or Oregon vs Minnesota. They will force the move to blue bloods vs blue bloods. I also don’t see them paying up for a March Madness that doesn’t include traditional powers like Kansas and Duke ( or posssibly Kentucky or North Carolina) or Cinderella stories or new blue bloods like UConn, Villanova or Gonzaga.

I don't disagree with much of your post, but they can't go to blue bloods vs blue bloods, because without those chumps to beat up on the average blue blood is going into the playoffs with 3-4 losses. And if it's all blue bloods vs blue bloods at least half of them have to finish 6-6 or worse. And that half aren't going to remain blue bloods for long.

 

[HacklemanPoke]

I don't disagree with much of your post, but they can't go to blue bloods vs blue bloods, because without those chumps to beat up on the average blue blood is going into the playoffs with 3-4 losses. And if it's all blue bloods vs blue bloods at least half of them have to finish 6-6 or worse. And that half aren't going to remain blue bloods for long.

I 100% agree. I just think the chances it goes there sooner are high. And then at some point it collapses bc I don’t think the business model can be maintained long term.

I think the mentality of a Tx or Ohio St or Mich or ND is that “we have the resources. We’ll always be the blue blood. And we don’t want to share w a Vandy or Miss St or Indiana or Minnesota.” I think they see more value coming to their pockets if they can limit it down to 24-36 schools. IMO it’s on the smaller end w 24-26 schools. They cut some existing to make room for new to capture markets. I think they would want Phoenix, Miami (maybe) and the Carolinas. ND gives them Indianapolis and Chicago. It’s not about being a college town so much as a sports town that cares about college. Denver is a sports town but do they care about college sports? Would Denver tune into aTm vs Clemson/Penn St on a non playoff Saturday afternoon?

They keep it small bc they don’t want to share. They never have. Look at 2011 when we were locked out of BCS.

I don’t think we make that cut and maybe I’m not thinking about it right but I’m actually ok w that. I think there’s value and tradition and resources and championships in a league w Az St, Ks St, Texas Tech, Kansas, Duke, Colorado, Utah, Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin, Syracuse, UCF, West Virginia, Pitt, Oregon St and probably Miss St, Auburn(IMO they keep Bama but don’t need Auburn), Arky (IMO they keep Mizzery but don’t need the both), South Carolina (they add Clemson).

As I said I see this as football only and everything else goes back to regional conferences. We already have that for some sports. And I could see college basketball becoming a wasteland if those super league football schools tried to creat their own March Madness. There’s zero chance anyone pays big$ for an 8 team basketball playoff tha could be uo, LSU, Bama, Mich, Tenn, Ohio St, aTm and USC.

I’m not so much predicting this will happen as I can see this happening. I want someone to post about where I’m wrong and what they see happening bc I just think the economics and strategies and drama of this are so fascinating.

 

[Georgia Poke]

Vandy’s position in the SEC has been protected thus far due to their status as a charter member and for their academic status.

With all traditions being cast by the wayside for the sake of the dollar, that may not continue to be the case.

 

[CptnQuirk]

Vandy’s position in the SEC has been protected thus far due to their status as a charter member and for their academic status.

With all traditions being cast by the wayside for the sake of the dollar, that may not continue to be the case.

I wouldn’t expect that to happen until a major realignment into super conferences.