2024 Presidential Election

Polds4OSU said:
someone is getting nervous.

Dr Phil walks back presidential endorsement one week after speaking at Trump rally​


“I’m just not here to endorse Donald Trump. I do not like celebrity endorsements,” McGraw said in a teaser clip posted to X.

The Dr Phil host went on to tell Morgan that he doesn’t like a lot of what the former president says or does, explaining that his speech at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally was more so “an act of rebellion on my part.”

Click to expand...
After 9/11 when there was an anthrax scare and people died because anthrax had been sent in the mail, Dr. Phil was on Oprah telling people that there was absolutely no reason why anyone should be afraid of anthrax because it was 100% curable with antibiotics. That's true with cutaneous anthrax. It isn't true with inhaled anthrax, and people had already died. He didn't know what he was talking about. I have no use for Dr. Phil.
 
A TON of movement on the predicition markets. Were at 53/47 Trump, now at 61/39 on Kalshi:
1730853458247.png
Trump has taken the lead on Harris on Predict It:
1730853487377.png
Similar moves on Polymarket as Kalshi:
1730853537196.png
 
All of the prediction markets are trending toward Trump based on these first few states being called and Georgia looking positive for him:
1730856787380.png
Predict It's graph doesn't look right, here are the current contract prices:
1730856839161.png
1730856875439.png
 
GOGETUMPOKE said:
I thought this was interesting.

View attachment 8221
Click to expand...
He is exactly right. If you peruse the comments on Kalshi and Polymarket, there are a lot of people who just are betting on who they like and want to win, versus who they judge will win.

I think this is a pretty glaring shortcoming of the prediction markets on topics where people have strong opinions and emotional investment in.
 
GratefulPoke said:
He is exactly right. If you peruse the comments on Kalshi and Polymarket, there are a lot of people who just are betting on who they like and want to win, versus who they judge will win.

I think this is a pretty glaring shortcoming of the prediction markets on topics where people have strong opinions and emotional investment in.
Click to expand...
There nothing too unusual going on in the state returns except that first Kansas returns have Harris ahead of Trump.
 
Last edited:
Well, it looks like we are more likely than not going to get another Trump presidency. Looks likely that the Rs will get the Senate and possibly if not probably the House.

I don't like either side in full control of the government. We tend to get even bigger deficits and stupidity.

R control of the House and Senate with a Harris presidency would make me happier.
 
Last edited:
steross said:
Well, it looks like we are more likely than not going to get another Trump presidency. Looks likely that the Rs will get the Senate and possibly if not probably the House.

I don't like either side in full control of the government. We tend to get even bigger deficits and stupidity.

R control of the House and Senate with a Harris presidency would make me happier.
Click to expand...

I was hoping for divided government.


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