Brookings Senior Fellow Elaine Kamarck explores the potential impact that DOGE-led federal cuts could have on Americans.
www.brookings.edu
For weeks, the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk,
the world’s richest man and a special government employee, has conducted a campaign to radically downsize the federal government and
terminate numerous agency employees. Musk’s actions—including
freezing federal grants, issuing an executive order offering employees paid resignation through Sept. 30,
dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and
seizing control of massive databases with sensitive information on all Americans—have raised serious legal and constitutional questions.
Most of these controversial actions are tied up in court, with
25 cases filed so far—all but one ruling against Trump, while the other was dismissed on standing rather than merits. This has not fazed either President Trump or Elon Musk, both of whom have run businesses while facing frequent lawsuits. More legal challenges are expected, some likely reaching the Supreme Court.
The long-term goal is to expand presidential power under the
theory of the Unitary Executive, which advocates for greater White House control over the government. Conservatives have pushed for this since the Reagan administration, and Trump hopes Musk’s actions will help advance it. This also explains why USAID was targeted first. Foreign aid is widely unpopular, with many Americans overestimating how much is spent on it. Thus, closing the agency would likely avoid public backlash, with the impact felt mostly by farmers—more on that later.
Cutting government budgets is broadly popular in theory, but if Trump and Musk overcome legal challenges and succeed in large-scale downsizing, they will find that cutting government can backfire on them. By using an axe instead of a scalpel, they run the risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater and eliminating essential functions. In its haste, DOGE is likely to disrupt services the public supports, making the government less effective. History shows that major government failures are politically lethal, often more so than constitutional arguments. When both occur, they can create serious political problems for the president and the party in power.
What counts as a major government failure? The Carter administration’s botched rescue of the Iran hostages, the Bush administration’s mishandling of Hurricane Katrina, the Obama administration’s health care website crashes that delayed Obamacare sign-ups, the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Trump administration’s ineffective response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and many more. These are failures no president—no matter how skilled a communicator—can spin or deflect. Blaming predecessors or changing the subject won’t work when the public can clearly see that something critical went disastrously wrong.
If Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency plans survive legal challenges, several major failures could follow—each landing squarely on the president’s shoulders. As President Harry Truman famously said, “The buck stops here.”
Disruptions in distribution of Social Security and veterans’ benefits
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Potential delays in tax refund processing
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Increased tax evasion leading to reduced federal revenue
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Increased risk of mortality from foodborne illnesses
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Further strain on an already fragile agricultural economy could exacerbate global food insecurity
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Reducing intelligence personnel at the CIA or FBI could increase the risk of domestic terrorist attacks
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This list of potential failures extends across nearly every government agency. Musk
acknowledges the likelihood of mistakes, saying no one can be perfect, and promises to fix problems quickly. But government operations are not like the tech industry—errors in issuing payments, tracking diseases, or ensuring aviation safety can have serious, sometimes life-threatening consequences. If DOGE indiscriminately slashes budgets and fires essential workers, it risks disaster. The fallout from major failures could hurt Trump’s poll numbers and weaken GOP support.
