The major reason is NAFTA which is a bad deal for us as a whole....cheap avocados and poutine doesn't replace manufacturing jobs. They are set up to ship stuff to us far easier than rest of the world....that change will take longer than it takes for tariffs to bankrupt them and US raiders to come buy them at cents on the dollar. Their largest export in dollars by far is petroleum/gas and again they aren't really set up to ship it to anyone but us....they actually ship it through the US to themselves in cases. Timber and electricity are bolstered by getting around state environmental rules. Wanna know why we get electricity from Canada because states like New York made environmental regs that Canada didn't.....same with logging.....because it's completely different to burn natural gas or cut down 100K acres of trees if they are 200 miles north when considering the climate of the whole Earth.
Canada's 23 GDP was 2.14 T (or less than 10% of ours). They have 2.3 million people of their 16M strong work force employed in jobs tied to exports to the US not counting all the other drivers, shop owners, banks, etc . In 2023 they shipped 440 B to the US.....128B was oil/gas/minerals which we have 52B was vehicles which we used to make....there are only 9 product categories according the the UN that total more than 10B and one is "Commodities not specified by kind" we get more "Precious stones and pearls" you know vital stuff than aluminum or steel.....if a real 25% tariff was put on all goods they don't make it 6 months without a full on depression. Canada is dependent on us. I'm not for the way Trump is going about this and I'm not for a contentious relationship with our next door neighbor but a "trade war" with Canada needs put in the context it belongs.
Their currency dropped 11.5% on the headline. The grown ups in Canada saw that....they may have to talk tough about booze or beaver pelts but a message was sent however haphazardly delivered. I really hope that this exercise cuts through the crap of acting like we are peers and sets the tone for future deals and is the end of it....it rarely is with Trump.
