The Steross Market and Investing Thread
- Thread starter jobob85
- Start date
It bothers me more than it should that they have Washington abbreviated as WN.
Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas. Now I can't unsee it.
Glad I could share
Stillwater Townie
Ranger
If Walters could get impeached, then maybe Oklahoma would grow even faster, while being less subject to attracting far-right Christian crazy people.
Hey, Kentucky is jelly.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.
Imports up because of potential tariffs, exports down.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Imports up because of potential tariffs, exports down.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
mugatu
Ranger
My accounts are feeling this. Holy crap the last week has SUCKED. Can Trump stop threatening tariffs every other week and let the economy be?
It was doing fine at the end of last year. Now his tariff threats are killing the stock market and DOGE is laying off thousands and canceling contracts with everyone, while nothing is being done to actually support normal families. This is gonna get ugly if they continue. Including the plot from your link so people see how big that change is.
Wannabe President Musk warned us that things are going to be tough on us normies for some time. They’re just getting started.
Forcing rate cuts seems like the only explanation for tariffs that makes sense to me. GDP goes negative, economy contracts, if we get a recession hopefully it's short and shallow. Remove tariffs after rates go down to where they're happy, let the economy do its thing from there.
www.forbes.com
Investors Now Expect More Interest Rate Cuts This Year—As Fears Rise Of A Tariff-Driven Economic Slowdown
“We’re set on bringing interest rates down,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Tuesday.
www.forbes.com
mugatu
Ranger
I'm no economist, but that seems dangerous and risks much longer term issue.Forcing rate cuts seems like the only explanation for tariffs that makes sense to me. GDP goes negative, economy contracts, if we get a recession hopefully it's short and shallow. Remove tariffs after rates go down to where they're happy, let the economy do its thing from there.
Investors Now Expect More Interest Rate Cuts This Year—As Fears Rise Of A Tariff-Driven Economic Slowdown
“We’re set on bringing interest rates down,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Tuesday.
I didn't say it was smart, lol. Probably my fault for trying to make any sort of sense out of these tariffs.
mugatu
Ranger
Trump changes course, delays tariffs on most imports from Mexico until April
President Donald Trump is postponing the 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month after a conversation with that country’s president.
apnews.com
Sooo.... what the crap is going on here? Are we doing it or not doing it? Can we get a decision so the markets figure crap out and I can know what to do with investments?
As our notably absent friend GGP, he's going to announce tariffs.....get what he wants....or dance around like he got something for walking them back (when he really didn't get anything but a confused and anxious U.S. economy).
Trump changes course, delays tariffs on most imports from Mexico until April
President Donald Trump is postponing the 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month after a conversation with that country’s president.
Sooo.... what the crap is going on here? Are we doing it or not doing it? Can we get a decision so the markets figure crap out and I can know what to do with investments?
BTW, the parenthetical is mine....not GGP's.
mugatu
Ranger
Trump changes course, delays tariffs on most imports from Mexico until April
President Donald Trump is postponing the 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month after a conversation with that country’s president.
apnews.com
Guess whoever is playing the market on his staff just bought back in this morning. Time to get the market back going so he can sell again in a few weeks.
Trump changes course, delays tariffs on most imports from Mexico until April
President Donald Trump is postponing the 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month after a conversation with that country’s president.
Guess whoever is playing the market on his staff just bought back in this morning. Time to get the market back going so he can sell again in a few weeks.
We need to poop or get off the pot here.
Are we heading into a recession? Hell if I know! If I could know that, I'd be flying around in my G6 instead of sitting here on a Sunday morning having a coffee and writing this.
But, there are indicators that hint to it. And, as is often the case when you get that feeling that you should be wondering if it is about to happen, the indicators are a mixed bag.
Here is what I like to look at:
1. Indicators pointing to recession:
a. Yield Curve- we have had a negative yield curve for a couple of years and coming out of a negative yield curve is a pretty reliable indicator of a recession coming
b. Salm Rule- created by an economist, this rule as you can see is pretty effective when crossing the 0.5 line (red). We are just there. Will it cross?
c. Unemployment rate- the most obvious indicator, people can't buy stuff if they have no job. We are turning up, which as you can see occurs before each recession.
d. Housing starts. Trending down despite the lack of available housing. This is of course due to rate increases, but it does tend to trend down into recession.
2. Indicators leaning against recession:
a. Consumer sentiment- This tends to dip before recession but at times it falls off a cliff right at the start so doesn't lead very well.
b. High yield spread- When there is more risk, people want more interest for riskier loans. We aren't seeing that risk spread right now.
c. Investment isn't slowing.
d. Leading indicators have turned up when they typically are trending down toward recession:
A mixed bag. More seem to point away, but the ones that I trust the most (unemployment and yield curve) are worrisome. Anyone else have other things they look for? Do you use it in your investment plan?
But, there are indicators that hint to it. And, as is often the case when you get that feeling that you should be wondering if it is about to happen, the indicators are a mixed bag.
Here is what I like to look at:
1. Indicators pointing to recession:
a. Yield Curve- we have had a negative yield curve for a couple of years and coming out of a negative yield curve is a pretty reliable indicator of a recession coming
b. Salm Rule- created by an economist, this rule as you can see is pretty effective when crossing the 0.5 line (red). We are just there. Will it cross?
c. Unemployment rate- the most obvious indicator, people can't buy stuff if they have no job. We are turning up, which as you can see occurs before each recession.
d. Housing starts. Trending down despite the lack of available housing. This is of course due to rate increases, but it does tend to trend down into recession.
2. Indicators leaning against recession:
a. Consumer sentiment- This tends to dip before recession but at times it falls off a cliff right at the start so doesn't lead very well.
b. High yield spread- When there is more risk, people want more interest for riskier loans. We aren't seeing that risk spread right now.
c. Investment isn't slowing.
d. Leading indicators have turned up when they typically are trending down toward recession:
A mixed bag. More seem to point away, but the ones that I trust the most (unemployment and yield curve) are worrisome. Anyone else have other things they look for? Do you use it in your investment plan?