The Steross Market and Investing Thread

Yea, I realize this is political but ignoring the good/bad of tariffs as a political idea I think traditionally we can all agree that markets are generally not going to be a fan, at least in the short to medium term. So far, I'm not seeing wholesale damage in the indicators I follow, but I wonder how much of that is investors playing a guessing game of how far he is going to take this.

Add to that the clear plan of the government to whack at a bare minimum 10% of the workforce. I believe only Walmart is similar in # of employees and if Walmart came out and said they were going to drop their workforce by 10-50% the markets would tank. I think nobody believes they will be able to accomplish it. I can tell you the never-before-seen incredible things happening right now does not give me confidence that they won't accomplish the goal. There has not even been a tepid response on the part of the other branches of government. We do not have checks and balances functioning right now.

I tend to me more of a technical investor than either looking at financials or macro themes. This is clearly macro. Anyone with a good sense of that have any thoughts?
 
Last edited:
Early car sales data for January is starting to arrive from countries across the pond, and they paint an alarming picture for Tesla. Sales are crashing in France, Germany, and the UK—all affluent countries that are key markets for Tesla's electric vehicles. Coming on the heels of a large financial miss, it's just one more problem for the automaker.

Tesla sales dropped around 13 percent across Europe in 2024, but so far this year, the scale of the problem is far greater. In France, sales of new Teslas fell by 63 percent, while total car sales in the country fell by just 6 percent, with EV sales dropping just half a percent.

Germany was already looking like lost ground for Tesla—its 41 percent drop in 2024 accounted for most of Tesla's lost sales across Europe. That must make the 59 percent drop in German Tesla sales recorded during January even more painful on the profit and loss statements.

Across the Channel, the British auto industry just released its sales data for January. Here, Tesla sales fell less precipitously—just 12 percent. However, battery EV sales were 35 percent higher in the UK in January 2025 than in January 2024. The cake is growing, but Tesla is getting to eat less and less of it.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/02/tesla-sales-plummet-in-the-uk-france-and-germany/
 
OKLO LEU and several others. Also ETF -NUKZ. Lots of speculation around power needs.

Very much a momentum play. I am seeing this new generation of traders driving momentum stocks.

I bought some NUKZ a few weeks ago.

And I was just wondering what makes you say that today. Was there news in the nuclear energy industry today? Did Trump say/sign/do something pro-nuclear power?

Anyway, yeah I'll hold that ETF for years because I feel like people are coming around on nuclear power.
 
I bought some NUKZ a few weeks ago.

And I was just wondering what makes you say that today. Was there news in the nuclear energy industry today? Did Trump say/sign/do something pro-nuclear power?

Anyway, yeah I'll hold that ETF for years because I feel like people are coming around on nuclear power.
Not sure where the pop came from. My friend MA ECON from NYU has been pushing me towards nuclear since last summer. He called today to see if I had checked positions. Didn’t think to ask why but - it is earnings season??
 
Not sure where the pop came from. My friend MA ECON from NYU has been pushing me towards nuclear since last summer. He called today to see if I had checked positions. Didn’t think to ask why but - it is earnings season??
I've followed nuclear stocks for awhile. Earlier in the year, both the supply side (Cameco, etc) had a good spike the also correlated with energy companies (Vistra, NuScale, Constellation Energy). They had a pullback in the nearer term, but are still way up over the last 12 months.

I am really bullish on them long term.
 

After 42 Years Straight the Ford F-150 Is No Longer America’s Top-Selling Vehicle​


According to Forbes, a crossover SUV became the most-purchased automobile in America for 2024.

The F-150 saw its sales fall five percent to 460,915 in 2024, while Toyota RAV4 sales rose by nine percent to 475,193.

You’re only talking a matter of about 15,000 or so more Rav4s sold than the F-150, so the margin was a tight one and could easily sway back in either’s favor in 2025.

the list of the top-selling autos in America for 2024 are:

1. Toyota RAV4

2. Ford F150

3. Honda CR-V

4. Tesla Model Y

5. Chevrolet Silverado 1500

6. Toyota Camry

7. Toyota Corolla

8. Nissan Rogue

9. Honda Civic

10.GMC Sierra 1500

Taking a look at the 10 bestselling vehicles, it’s easy to see that we are into trucks and SUVs a little more than cars at this time in America.
 

Taking a look at the 10 bestselling vehicles, it’s easy to see that we are into trucks and SUVs a little more than cars at this time in America.​

I count:
Cars: 4 (Tesla Model Y, Camry, Corolla, Civic)
Trucks: 3 (F-150, Silverado, Sierra)
SUVs: 3 (RAV4, CR-V, Rogue)

You mean Trucks/SUVs combined vs Cars? Or...?


If someone told me the F-150 got unseated after a 42 year run, IDK how many guesses it'd take for me to get that the RAV-4 is what took the crown though.
 

Lockheed, Northrop, and Other Defense Stocks Hit by Worries Over Cuts. Hold Your Fire.​


President Donald Trump’s priorities for military spending are taking shape, but investors still don’t seem to know what that means for overall military spending—or defense stocks.

For now, investors are taking a sell-first-ask-questions-later approach to the sector. Shares of highflying data-analytics firm and military contractor Palantir Technologies is falling even though projected defense cuts seem to have a limited impact on the company.



Wednesday, The Washington Post reported that the Trump White House warned the Defense Department of budget cuts, citing a memo. Cuts could amount to 8% a year for five years. The White House and Defense Department respond to requests for comments or to provide memos.

After that story, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Salesses appeared to clarify intentions, pointing out in a news release that the president has asked for $50 billion in cuts, roughly 8% of the fiscal year 2026 budget. What’s more, cuts would help fund the president’s priorities, including border security and drones.

“President Trump’s charge to the Department is clear: to achieve peace through strength,” said Salesses. “We will do this by putting forward budgets that revive the warrior ethos, rebuild our military, and re-establish deterrence.”

A $50 billion reallocation would be a “nothing burger” for the defense sector, wrote Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard in a Thursday report.


Still, it’s easy to see why investors are nervous. Cuts of that size are alarming. Total military spending over the past 12 months amounts to some $900 billion, according to Treasury Department data. At the end of five years of 8% cuts, that number would be closer to $600 billion. That’s roughly what the U.S. spent on defense in 2017.

That year, Lockheed Martin generated sales of about $51 billion. Shares closed the year at about $330, and traded for about 24 times estimated earnings expected over the coming 12 months.

Today, Lockheed shares are at about $433, and the company is expected to generate 2025 sales of about $74 billion, up about 45% from 2017. Shares valuation is about 16 times estimated earnings.

Investors’ nerves have meant lower valuation multiples. Shares of Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and L3Harris Technologies, trade for about 16 times estimated 2025 earnings on average, down from about 18 times before the Nov. 5 presidential election. Coming into Thursday trading, the four stocks were down almost 20% since the election.



It’s been rough flying recently even for drone makers. Coming into Thursday trading, shares of unmanned technology provider Kratos Defense & Security Solutions were up about 16% since the election. Impressive. Still, the stock was down more than 17% over the past two weeks.

Recent news seems to have even hit Palantir stock, which provides software and artificial-intelligence solutions to the Defense Department. Shares dropped 10.1% on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that was an overreaction. Less spending on traditional defense tech will lead to more spending on AI-enabled solutions, he wrote Thursday.

“The bears which have hated Palantir from $12 to $120 in the last 18 months now have found their latest silver-bullet negative thesis around…budget cuts,” added Ives. “These DOD cuts…will enable the company to gain more IT budget dollars at the Pentagon, not less.” He rates Palantir stock at Buy with a $120 price target.


It’s been tough for investors to gauge the sector lately, and that probably won’t change for a few months. Investors will have to be ready when the spending outlook is less hazy.

Shares of Lockheed, L3Harris, Northrop, and General Dynamics were mixed in early Thursday trading. No early moves were alarming. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down about 0.3%.

Palantir stock was down 3.8% at $107.76 early Thursday. The second-day drop could be due to budget fears or something else—such as profit-taking or valuation. Coming into Thursday trading, shares were up about 380% over the past 12 months. And Palantir stock trades in a different stratosphere compared with traditional defense companies, fetching about 209 times estimated 2025 earnings.

Growth is the reason for the multiple. Wall Street projects about 30% average annual earnings growth for the coming few years.
 


Warren Buffett Occasionally Writes to Shareholders About Overheated Markets. Not This Year.​

The Berkshire Hathaway chairman acknowledges that ‘often, nothing looks compelling’ in the hunt for equity investments​


Warren Buffett spoke only obliquely about the stock market in his letter to shareholders Saturday.

The Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B -0.64%decrease; red down pointing triangle

chairman and CEO’s storied reputation as a stock picker leads many investors to study his annual missives. Buffett doesn’t always opine on markets, and in his latest letter he limited such commentary to a few thoughts on the general hunt for good investments.

“Understandably, really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices,” Buffett said.

He wrote that Berkshire is impartial in the choice between investing in businesses it can control with at least 80% ownership and purchasing small portions of companies in the stock market. In either case, Buffett wrote, the pickings can be slim.

“Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities,” he said.

With Berkshire’s stash of cash and Treasury bills surpassing $320 billion—larger than the market values of most big U.S. companies—observers have been eager to hear how Buffett is thinking about opportunities to invest. One challenge for the price-conscious investor: The stock market is trading near records and at valuations that are elevated relative to historical averages.
 
Back
Top