The Steross Market and Investing Thread

mugatu said:
Yeah, I built a house in MD 2 years for much less than what he's paying. Either he's going high end or prices are stupid high.
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There is some expense because we want to build up three levels. But, we specifically said moderate appliances/tile etc not high-end stuff.
And these were inital bids, which I am told typically you need to add 10-15% for actual cost.
 
steross said:
There is some expense because we want to build up three levels. But, we specifically said moderate appliances/tile etc not high-end stuff.
And these were inital bids, which I am told typically you need to add 10-15% for actual cost.
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Yes plan for lots of overages... and delays. So many delays.
 
BREAKING: Federal Reserve lowers its interest rate by 0.5%, its first cut since 2020, in a bid to head off an economic slowdown..
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NBC News (@nbcnews) on Threads

BREAKING: Federal Reserve lowers its interest rate by 0.5%, its first cut since 2020, in a bid to head off an economic slowdown.
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Polds4OSU said:
JD Vance & MAGA supporters boo and are upset at the news from reporter that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates
(Real America's Voice clip)

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Chris Sapphire (@mrchrissapphire) on Threads

JD Vance & MAGA supporters boo and are upset at the news from reporter that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates (Real America's Voice clip)
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HacklemanPoke said:
MAGA is not has it ever been about Making America Great. It’s at its core about hate. That fateful escalator descent and following speech was about hate.
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Can we keep one thread on this board non-political? If you want to bash Trump/Vance or Harris/Walz, there are several other threads for that.
 
Sorry this is sort of political. GGP posting the Polymarket election results poses an interesting arbitrage opportunity.

On Oct 9th, Polymarket had Trump at 53.3%. My brokerage has futures contracts on the same day that had Harris at 54%.

Seems you buy Harris on polymarket. If she wins, you are paid $215 for every $100 bought. Then buy Trump on my brokerage and get $217 for every $100 if he wins. You are making either $15 or $17 risk free.
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steross said:
Sorry this is sort of political. GGP posting the Polymarket election results poses an interesting arbitrage opportunity.

On Oct 9th, Polymarket had Trump at 53.3%. My brokerage has futures contracts on the same day that had Harris at 54%.

Seems you buy Harris on polymarket. If she wins, you are paid $215 for every $100 bought. Then buy Trump on my brokerage and get $217 for every $100 if he wins. You are making either $15 or $17 risk free.
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LET'S GOOOO!!! At least something positive can come from this election.
 
steross said:
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Depreciating assets at high rates.....

The need for Americans to have a cool car does as much to destroy lower and middle class wealth potential as anything. Back when I was in the dating pool at some point the lady would figure out you make more than average and if the question of why I didn't drive a better car or a comment was made about the car it was an instant end to it. Yes I could drive a Bentley....and I would not be saving/investing....hell even traveling on that 1000/month. Our infrastructure is set up that a car is required for most all of us but the difference in a good used car and the new Mega Boss Ranch XL Deluxe Mondo F-5000 and the clean safe reliable looks nice vehicle is the difference in working 5 years on the back end.....or more.
 
Donnyboy said:
Depreciating assets at high rates.....

The need for Americans to have a cool car does as much to destroy lower and middle class wealth potential as anything. Back when I was in the dating pool at some point the lady would figure out you make more than average and if the question of why I didn't drive a better car or a comment was made about the car it was an instant end to it. Yes I could drive a Bentley....and I would not be saving/investing....hell even traveling on that 1000/month. Our infrastructure is set up that a car is required for most all of us but the difference in a good used car and the new Mega Boss Ranch XL Deluxe Mondo F-5000 and the clean safe reliable looks nice vehicle is the difference in working 5 years on the back end.....or more.
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The car deal is absolutely insane. I financed a +$100k half ton pickup for a young man recently. Tons of family money behind this kid and he can for sure afford the payments but at what point is it just stupidity. I had just recently bought a very nice half ton pickup for the bank for almost exactly half of that.
 
GOGETUMPOKE said:
The car deal is absolutely insane. I financed a +$100k half ton pickup for a young man recently. Tons of family money behind this kid and he can for sure afford the payments but at what point is it just stupidity. I had just recently bought a very nice half ton pickup for the bank for almost exactly half of that.
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I love going to the dealer and finding the vehicle that has been sitting on the lot and paying cash. They absolutely hate you.
 

Investor Gets 22 Months Prison Time For $22 Million Trump Media Insider Trading Scheme​

An investor was sentenced to almost two years in prison Wednesday after pleading guilty to a $22 million insider trading scheme involving the effort to take Trump Media & Technology Group public, Bloomberg reported.

Key Facts​

Gerald Shvartsman was sentenced to 22 months in prison for using confidential information about blank check firm Digital World Acquisition Corp.’s merger with Trump Media to make $22 million worth of illegal trades alongside his brother, Michael, and an associate Michael placed on Digital World’s board of directors, Bloomberg reported.

Former President Donald Trump and his company have not been accused of wrongdoing in the cases.
Prosecutors sought a 24-month prison sentence while Shvartsman’s lawyers pushed for 18 months of home confinement, arguing a harsh sentence would not deter others from committing similar financial crimes, according to Bloomberg, which noted Michael Shvartsman’s sentencing is scheduled for Thursday while the associate, Bruce Garelick, will be sentenced Nov. 7.
Gerald and Michael signed non-disclosure agreements with Digital World providing them with information about its upcoming merger with Trump Media, using the information and Garelick’s position on Digital World’s board of directors to make trades prior to the merger’s announcement.
Garelick was convicted of conspiracy and securities fraud in May for trading shares prior to the merger and illegally profiting about $50,000 from doing so (he faces up to 25 years in prison).


Roland Riopelle, Shvartsman’s lawyer, told Forbes he was disappointed with the outcome of the case, but noted it is “hard to be too disappointed” with the amount of prison time Shvartsman received, noting it is lower than what was sought by prosecutors.
Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you'll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Tangent​

Trump Media shares are up more than 11% at around $30.20 as of Wednesday afternoon, partially recovering from a slump in price Tuesday.

Forbes Valuation​

We estimate Trump’s net worth at $5.5 billion, with a large chunk of the figure rooted in his around 60% stake in Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social.

Key Background​

Digital World, a special-purpose acquisition company, approved its merger with Trump Media in late March. The combined company trades under the symbol DJT and was valued at nearly $8 billion after its first day of trading on the Nasdaq. Trump Media’s market cap is $6 billion as of Wednesday, with company shares—which are extremely volatile—continuing to rally after reaching a record low in September, when the stock was priced at $12.15 per share. The merger between Digital World and Trump Media experienced significant delays, as the Securities and Exchange Commission charged the former company with making “material misrepresentations” to investors by failing to disclose it established a plan to take Trump Media public before filing an initial public offering. The case was settled for $18 million.

Further Reading​

Trump Social Media Investor Gets Prison for Insider Trading (Bloomberg)

2 Brothers Plead Guilty In Trump Media Insider Trading Case (Forbes)
 

Does Stanley Druckenmiller Know Something Wall Street Doesn't? The Billionaire Investor Is Making a Big Bet Against the Federal Reserve.​


By Bram Berkowitz–Oct 20, 2024 at 7:28AM



Most of the market believes the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates.
In September, the Fed's projections showed that the agency plans to keep dropping interest rates this year and in 2025 based on data at the time.


Druckenmiller appears to have the opposite view, making watchers wonder if the famed investor is seeing something others aren't.


Stanley Druckenmiller, known for generating superior market returns, is ready to play contrarian.


Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller might be the best to ever do it, at least from a pure returns perspective. His firm, Duquesne Capital Management, which closed in 2010, generated average annual returns of 30% for three decades. That's better than Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.
Although Duquesne Capital is no more, Druckenmiller still invests through the Duquesne Family Office, and is not afraid to go against the grain. The George Soros protege is now making a bet that goes against the broader view of the market and the Federal Reserve, according to reported remarks of people who heard him speak at a conference in early October. Does he know something Wall Street doesn't?

Betting on a bond bust​

The majority of the market and the Federal Reserve believe inflation will continue to slow and the Fed will keep lowering interest rates through 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks the likelihood of interest rate changes by looking at one-month futures prices, indicates that the majority of traders (as of Oct. 15) expect the Fed to lower interest rates by an additional 50 basis points this year and get its benchmark rate down to a target range of 3.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2025. Keep in mind that these future projections of interest rates are constantly changing.
The Fed's "dot plot" also currently charts a similar path. The dot plot shows how each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thinks interest rates will trend and then compiles a consensus. The dot plot is updated every three months. The Fed believes that with inflation trending lower, it now needs to worry about the labor market, which has seen unemployment trending higher until the last two months. The Fed is trying to engineer a "soft landing" for the economy where inflation falls and gets back to the Fed's preferred 2% target without previous interest rate hikes tipping the economy into recession.

Druckenmiller is taking the other side of this bet, reportedly recently unveiling at a conference that he is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds. Bets against U.S. government bonds now account for 15% to 20% of Druckenmiller's portfolio, according to reports of what people at the conference said.

A bet against Treasury bills or bonds is effectively a bet against the current view that interest rates will fall. Bonds have an inverse relationship to bond yields, so if bonds fall, yields rise. The federal funds rate influences bond yields, although most yields do not move solely based on the federal funds rate. Druckenmiller also reportedly said inflation could surge to levels seen in the 1970s. If inflation surges, the Fed will not be able to drop interest rates as much as the market thinks or even at all because the economy will be too hot to stimulate with further cuts.

We don't know the exact bet​

We don't know the exact bet Druckenmiller is making. For instance, we don't know the duration of bonds that Druckenmiller is shorting. Being short of the two-year Treasury bill is different from being short of the 30-year. Druckenmiller also reportedly said he is unsure how long the trade will take to unfold. It could take six months or six years, he said. Additionally, Druckenmiller is worried about "bipartisan fiscal recklessness."
For all we know, Druckenmiller's bet could have more to do with government spending and the national debt than anything else. If debt levels get too high and the market starts to worry about the government's ability to pay its debt or interest payments, investors would demand higher interest rates for the added risk, which would tank bond prices.
Still, given his comments on inflation, Druckenmiller does seem to be playing contrarian to the Fed and the general market. While retail investors should listen to Druckenmiller and try to get into his mindset, it's not a good idea to completely shift your strategy when the exact trade is not known. The motive of institutional investors is not always entirely clear. But thinking about and being open to opposing views -- and then doing your own due diligence -- is what makes a good investor.



www.fool.com

Does Stanley Druckenmiller Know Something Wall Street Doesn't? The Billionaire Investor Is Making a Big Bet Against the Federal Reserve. | The Motley Fool

Stanley Druckenmiller, known for generating superior market returns, is ready to play contrarian.
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Breaking news: The U.S. economy continued its expansion in the third quarter, growing at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent, and offering a spurt of good news for Vice President Harris just days before the election.
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The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) on Threads

Breaking news: The U.S. economy continued its expansion in the third quarter, growing at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent, and offering a spurt of good news for Vice President Harris just days before the election.
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