Trump claimed the Houthis were dead and said “They... will not be blowing up ships any more.”. Now they are more powerful than ever and have sunk two shipping vessels in the last 2 days and their regional alliances grow with other groups.
Credit: Reuters
A little over two months ago, Donald Trump was emphatic in claiming to have halted
Houthi militants’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
The US president said the
militants had agreed to a ceasefire after a campaign of air strikes which he said had bombed the Iranian-backed group into surrender.
“[The Houthis] just don’t want to fight, and we will honour that and we will stop the bombings, and they have capitulated,” he said on May 6. “They say they will not be blowing up ships any more.”
Despite Mr Trump’s confidence, this week the Houthis have
sunk two vessels in quick succession on the critical shipping route and shattered
months of relative calm off Yemen’s coast.
The sinking of Magic Seas, a Liberian-flagged and Greek-operated vessel, was followed by a two-day assault on another Greek bulk carrier, the Eternity C, which sank on Wednesday.
The attacks – broadcast to the world in
slick Hollywood-style videos – have once again led to traffic dropping and insurance costs surging in one of the world’s main marine arteries.
The Houthi resurgence has taken some nations by surprise, especially after its biggest backer – Iran – was hit first by
Israel and then by US B2 bombers.
But through careful alliance building, ruthless extortion rackets and more independence, the group is more powerful than it has been in years.
Trump claimed the Houthis were dead. Now they are more powerful than ever
Resilience against air strikes
This week’s attacks, which the Houthis said were conducted in solidarity with the Palestinians, not only show the hollowness of Mr Trump’s supposed ceasefire, but also the resilience of the militant group and the limits of air strikes, experts say.
The Houthis have survived years of strikes and become adept at hiding their military equipment. They have also broadened alliances and supply lines to try to wean themselves off support from Iran.
Mr Trump’s declaration of victory in May was murky from the start, according to Wolf-Christian Paes, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
While Mr Trump had publicly said the Houthis had agreed to stop attacks, the group itself had continued to say it would attack vessels linked to Israel and its allies.
Any deal between the two was in fact probably only restricted to US vessels, he said.
The
American-led campaign of air strikes that Mr Trump claimed had “decimated” the Houthis had also been less effective than the president might have boasted, experts said.
A two-year campaign of strikes conducted under Joe Biden and then Mr Trump is estimated to have cost at least $7 billion.
The Houthis had already weathered years of air attacks from Saudi-led forces and had become used to hiding their weapons to conduct mobile hit-and-run strikes.
The recent strikes also showed the range of military options that the Houthis have for hitting vessels. While they have been reliant on Iran for high-end missile technology, they can manufacture drones and deploy small boats themselves.
Explosive charges were carefully placed around the Magic Seas carrier and detonated remotely to make it sink to the sea floor.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank, said: “The Houthis will continue for a long time to be able to strike. Their military power is beyond what anyone can imagine or think.”
Certainly, their methods have evolved. Martin Kelly, the head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, told The Telegraph: “The Houthis are the first actors in the world to successfully engage a ship using an anti-ship ballistic missile. Not a state actor, not Iran, not Russia, not China, but the Houthis.”
He noted that their range of weapons has grown too, with a fresh focus on unmanned vehicles.
Drones, Mr Kelly said, “can be flown into a ship with a relatively small warhead, but can cause significant damage, particularly if it’s to hit the bridge or it was to breach the hull of a vessel”.
Unmanned surface vessels, he added, are possibly “the most dangerous type of weapon that the Houthis can use”.
These are speedboats packed with explosives that can be directed by remote control and driven into the side of a ship, making a hole at water level and causing the ships to sink more quickly.
One Iranian official also claimed to The Telegraph that the group had become increasingly independent. They said: “We used to support them a lot, but now they have their own plans.
“They’ve seen that neither Trump nor Israel could stop them, so they think – why not sink a few more ships?
“They do it for domestic reasons. They’re not very popular among Yemenis, but Yemenis like Palestine, so taking action for Gaza boosts [the Houthis’] popularity.
“We believe they’re bolder now because they’ve learnt that when the US or Israel bombs them, it doesn’t really stop their plans. Their strikes do nothing to stop them.”
The group may also have a financial incentive for stepping up attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Last year, United Nations experts said the Houthis were allegedly collecting as much as $180 million each month from shipping agencies to allow vessels to sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked.
While the report was questioned by maritime safety experts, such income would be one of the Houthis’ main revenue streams.
New alliances
As part of widening their alliances, the group has reportedly built ties with the Al Shabaab group on the Somali side of the Gulf of Aden.
The alliance has given the Houthis access to a network of ports such as Bosaso along the Somali coast, broadening out supply routes to smuggle arms into Yemen, according to the Pentagon’s Africa Centre for Strategic Studies.
Resuming attacks not only raises the group’s international profile, but also helps deflect criticism from inside their own territory where the group has a woeful record governing.
