Head of Russian Private Army Wagner Group comes clean. Says Entire Ukraine war based on Lies told by Russia
- Thread starter Polds4OSU
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I don't think we have anything to do with it. Our political currency doesn't go far in Russia. This was an autocrat making a big miscalculation.
Polds4OSU
Marshall
US officials saw signs Prigozhin was planning challenge to Russian military but surprised by rapid escalation
Yeah this now seems more like the Wagner Group and Putin faked a coup to retreat and regroup….? That’s literally just me I haven’t seen that anywhere.
This is 100% non credible.
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
I have to admit that I couldn’t make up my mind what would be the best outcome in all of this. I thought this was funny:
Here is an analysis by Tatiana Stanovaya, Senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
www.nytimes.com
Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries. Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power). Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated. Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved. I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
Putin embraced turmoil, and now it is rattling his leadership. (Published 2023)
For more than two decades, the system helped President Vladimir V. Putin secure his unrivaled authority, ensuring that he personally held the keys to wealth and influence in modern Russia.
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Polds4OSU
Marshall
Russia's Putin says he let mutiny continue to avoid bloodshed
(Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin made a defiant televised address on Monday evening, saying he had deliberately let Saturday's 24-hour mutiny by the Wagner militia go on as long as it did to avoid bloodshed, and that it had reinforced national unity.
The statement, his first on the issue since he spoke on Saturday promising to crush the mutiny, appeared intended to draw a line under an event that numerous Western leaders saw as exposing Putin's vulnerability since invading Ukraine 16 months ago.
Wagner's fighters, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, succeeded in taking control of the city of Rostov-on-Don with its military command centre steering the Ukraine campaign, and driving an armed convoy across Russia to within 200 km (125 miles) of Moscow.
"From the very beginning of the events, steps were taken on my direct instruction to avoid serious bloodshed," Putin said.
"Time was needed, among other things, to give those who had made a mistake a chance to come to their senses, to realise that their actions were firmly rejected by society, and that the adventure in which they had been involved had tragic and destructive consequences for Russia and for our state."
Putin made no mention of Prigozhin, who had demanded that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, come to Rostov to speak to him. Prigozhin called for both of them to be dismissed.
Nor did Putin mention any planned personnel changes at the Defence Ministry, although at around 11 p.m. Moscow time he was shown on television addressing a meeting of heads of his security departments, including Shoigu.
Prigozhin had said his men had been forced to shoot down helicopters that attacked them as they drove towards Moscow; Putin did allude to some bloodshed, but blamed it on Wagner:
"The organisers of the mutiny, having betrayed their country, their people, also betrayed those whom they dragged into the crime. They lied to them, they pushed them to death: under fire, to shoot their own."
Putin thanked Wagner fighters and commanders who had stood down from the mutiny to avoid what he called "fratricidal bloodshed", and said the vast majority of Wagner's members were patriots.
He said those who decided not to sign contracts with the army under a Defence Ministry order could either relocate to Belarus or simply return to their families.
Putin said all levels of society had taken "a firm, unambiguous position in support of the constitutional order".
"Everyone was united and rallied by the main thing," he said, "responsibility for the fate of the Fatherland."
Russia says it is carrying out a "special military operation" in Ukraine to remove what it calls a potential threat against its own security from the Western-leaning government in Kyiv. Ukraine and the West described the February 2022 invasion as an unprovoked land grab.
Russia's Putin says he let mutiny continue to avoid bloodshed
The statement, his first on the issue since he spoke on Saturday promising to crush the mutiny, appeared intended to draw a line under an event that numerous Western leaders saw as exposing Putin's vulnerability since invading Ukraine 16 months ago. Wagner's fighters, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin...
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Putin orders probe into Prigozhin finances as Wagner leader arrives in Belarus
The finances of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s catering firm are set to be investigated, Russian president Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday as the Wagner group leader arrived in Belarus.Speaking to soldiers from the Russian army at a meeting in the Kremlin, Putin said he had always respected Wagner’s fighters, but that the fact was the group had been "fully financed" from the state budget. He alleged it had received 86 billion roubles ($1 billion) from the defence ministry between May 2022 and May 2023.
Prigozhin’s Concord catering company made a further 80 billion roubles from state contracts to supply food to the Russian army, Putin added, stating that: "I do hope that, as part of this work, no one stole anything, or, let’s say, stole less, but we will, of course, investigate all of this."
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko confirmed on Tuesday that Prigozhin has arrived in Belarus following a short-lived armed mutiny in Russia.
Prigozhin’s exile had previously been announced by the Kremlin, with Lukashenko adding that the group would be welcome to stay in the country “for some time.”
Key Points
- Putin finally admits how close Russia came to civil war after Wagner mutiny
- Ukraine forces ‘advanced in all directions’ on Monday
- Prigozhin jet lands in Belarus
- Vladimir Putin issues desperate address to Russian people after Wagner mutiny
- Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu appears for first time since armed rebellion
- Ukraine gains evident around Bakhmut in Donetsk, says UK MoD
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Russia's Notorious Wagner Group Is Being Disbanded.
In the wake of a tumultuous weekend that saw Russian President Vladimir Putin survive the biggest test to his leadership in 23 years, the disbandment of the mutinous Wagner Group appears to now be underway, the BBC reported.Russia’s defense ministry has said that the Wagner Group will surrender its supply of weapons and hardware, and its fighters have been invited by Putin to join the Russian army instead. Failing that, mercenaries can flee to neighboring Belarus, which has been involved in mediating an agreement between the two parties since Wagner’s rebellion on Saturday.
The mercenary group seized control of key military sites in Rostov-on-Don during an armed event that saw at least 13 pilots killed, according to news reports citing pro-military bloggers. Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his fighters decided to turn back before reaching Moscow and entered a deal—brokered with assistance from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko—that saw the charges against Prigozhin dropped in exchange for him leaving the country.
A private jet linked to Prigozhin arrived in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, on Tuesday morning. But it has not yet been confirmed if the Wagner chief was onboard, and the Kremlin has said it has no information on his whereabouts.
Prigozhin spoke out on Monday for the first time since the aborted rebellion, releasing an 11-minute audio statement in which he said the march was a retaliation in regards to a Russian rocket attack that killed 30 of his fighters. “We started our march because of an injustice,” Prigozhin said, according to translations by Sky News. “Civilians came out to meet us with Russian flags and Wagner emblems, they were happy when we arrived and walked past them.”
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
Something tells me that Prigozhin is about to be broke or dead. Probably both.
Agreed. He might want to avoid drinking tea for awhile.
Or touching doorknobs. Or water bottles. WTF ever, it doesn't matter; these FSB folks will figure out a way to Novichok him regardless.
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