Conference Realignment - What's next?

[celldweller7]

I’m assuming Cal, Stanford and SMU are all available because they don’t have much to lose with their ACC deal. Also San Jose St not based on merit, but it’s a gut feeling.

Mountain West Conference | College Athletics Database

knightnewhousedata.org

2023 athletic expense numbers
San Diego State - $96.6 million
Colorado State - $64.4 million
Boise State - $58.2 million
Fresno State - $51.7 million
San Jose State spent $44.5 million.

I'd expect the new PAC 6 to make $50 million a minimum expected budget if not closer to $60 million. Additionally, dipping back into the MWC will cost the PAC 6 a lot of cash. Due to the escalating penalty clause, it would cost the conference about $56 million to get two more MWC schools. They are paying over $40 million for those 4. With the $17 million exit fees and the scheduling alliance penalties, the MWC is already set to make as much as $111 million. Add two more schools and it would be close to $200 million. I don't expect the MWC to play nice and negotiate, as word around the rumor mill is that these defections will sink their media deal in 2026. The remaining members will be out for blood.

 

[74072 Poke]

Not that it matters for football, but I could see them pulling in Gonzaga & St Mary's for the other sports.

 

[CowboyJD]

I really don't get this move at all. 6 teams is not a conference. They need at least 10 to meet FBS requirements.

I think it's 8 and I've heard rumors of a couple of Texas schools from the AAC....UTSB and UNT.

 

[GratefulPoke]

Not that it matters for football, but I could see them pulling in Gonzaga & St Mary's for the other sports.

The guys on 365 Sports just said that too. I think you're on to something.

 

[Pistol Pete's Mustache]

I bet they take the six most valuable from the AAC for an eastern division. It would do better moneywise than they do now.

East: Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, FAU, and one of ECU, UNT, Tulsa, Birmingham.

 

[DxCowboy]

I bet they take the six most valuable from the AAC for an eastern division. It would do better moneywise than they do now.

East: Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, FAU, and one of ECU, UNT, Tulsa, Birmingham.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with all of the other sports. The travel costs are absolutely ridiculous & will kill their budgets.

Ask Tulsa. They’ve been in conferences that had them traveling to Hawaii, Orlando, Marshall, UTEP, UConn. For sports like Basketball, they’d double up on road trips, ie: play Southern Miss, then Tulane a couple days later.

 

[Verbal]

I bet they take the six most valuable from the AAC for an eastern division. It would do better moneywise than they do now.

East: Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, FAU, and one of ECU, UNT, Tulsa, Birmingham.

The Mountain West will need to add schools too, won't they? If this happens I would assume the leftovers of the MW and AAC would merge together.

 

[Pistol Pete's Mustache]

The Mountain West will need to add schools too, won't they? If this happens I would assume the leftovers of the MW and AAC would merge together.

They'll probably just keep bumping FCS schools to FBS for reasons that make no sense. CUSA should not exist.

 

[celldweller7]

I bet they take the six most valuable from the AAC for an eastern division. It would do better moneywise than they do now.

East: Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, FAU, and one of ECU, UNT, Tulsa, Birmingham.

I like the idea of creating a best-of-the-rest eastern division. 12 teams, divide them up the way the old Big 12 was and it cuts down on travel. I think you have to have at least 2 if not 3 Texas schools in it. So UTSA, UNT and maybe Texas State. Then Memphis, Tulane, and USF. Maybe FAU instead of Texas State, I dunno.

The PAC 12 would have every time zone and several major metro areas. While they wouldn't be the number 1 show anywhere they'd have plenty of product for ESPN, CW, TNT, CBS, and Fox to bid on. They all need live college football.

This would also cripple the AAC and MWC which also helps the PAC.

 

[Pistol Pete's Mustache]

I like the idea of creating a best-of-the-rest eastern division. 12 teams, divide them up the way the old Big 12 was and it cuts down on travel. I think you have to have at least 2 if not 3 Texas schools in it. So UTSA, UNT and maybe Texas State. Then Memphis, Tulane, and USF. Maybe FAU instead of Texas State, I dunno.

The PAC 12 would have every time zone and several major metro areas. While they wouldn't be the number 1 show anywhere they'd have plenty of product for ESPN, CW, TNT, CBS, and Fox to bid on. They all need live college football.

This would also cripple the AAC and MWC which also helps the PAC.

Yeah, I envision it being the best of both conferences under a new name and with a significantly better media deal. It makes the most sense. The tiers would be pretty clear. SEC and BIG at the top making absurd money. Big XII and ACC next making pretty darn good money. Pac-12 would be the top of G6 making significantly less than the second tier, but more than the rest of the G6.

 

[Georgia Poke]

Texas State has more potential than does FAU.

 

[celldweller7]

Yeah, I envision it being the best of both conferences under a new name and with a significantly better media deal. It makes the most sense. The tiers would be pretty clear. SEC and BIG at the top making absurd money. Big XII and ACC next making pretty darn good money. Pac-12 would be the top of G6 making significantly less than the second tier, but more than the rest of the G6.

I was reading on the Athletic that they are hoping for a media deal between $10-$12 million per school. There was also talk of them looking to shore up basketball by trying to go after Gonzaga and potentially Wichita State if they managed to get someone like Memphis.

Other articles point to the two Dakota and two Montana schools for the MWC. Also, rumors that local politicians and business owners are pushing for Sac State to join. Word is that $111 million the conference is owed could be used to help front the new $5 million fee to join the FBS. Honestly, those 4 FCS programs sound more attractive than adding UTEP. Plus, if you're UTEP, the CUSA is a more stable environment right now anyway (though I read the CUSA only generates $750k per team in media revenue). Sac State isn't as competitive as the other 4, but would be better than the Miners.

 

[celldweller7]

I was reading on the Athletic that they are hoping for a media deal between $10-$12 million per school. There was also talk of them looking to shore up basketball by trying to go after Gonzaga and potentially Wichita State if they managed to get someone like Memphis.

Other articles point to the two Dakota and two Montana schools for the MWC. Also, rumors that local politicians and business owners are pushing for Sac State to join. Word is that $111 million the conference is owed could be used to help front the new $5 million fee to join the FBS. Honestly, those 4 FCS programs sound more attractive than adding UTEP. Plus, if you're UTEP, the CUSA is a more stable environment right now anyway (though I read the CUSA only generates $750k per team in media revenue). Sac State isn't as competitive as the other 4, but would be better than the Miners.

That Sac State committee is official now with a couple of state politicians, CEOs, etc.

'SAC 12' looks to push Sacramento State into Pac-12, MWC

The Sac 12 has been formed by local leaders to lift Sacramento State Athletics into the Pac-12 or Mountain West Conference.

sactownsports.com

I think their attempt to push a PAC 12 narrative is to oversell and land in the rebuilt Mountain West. That makes sense as the new MWC will look more like a western Sun Belt. More rumors are swirling that the current PAC 6 will stop expansion at 9 or at least view that as an ideal number (all teams play each other and 4 non-cons). Conflicting reports about whether football is required for entrance.

Other rumors are that Air Force has already begun a conversation with the AAC, which is no surprise. Less official rumors are going that USF has no interest in a western-based conference.

Memphis and Tulane are making between $6-7 million off of the current AAC deal, with ABC/ESPN coverage. The new PAC is going to need to get a deal in that $10-12 range to make exiting worth it.

Outside of the AFA stuff, nothing much is coming out of the AAC which I don't think is a big shock. Moving to the AAC for most remaining MWC schools wouldn't be worth the $17 million exit fee and losing out on the cash windfall to come from the 4 that bolted, especially if the PAC is able to pick off the biggest AAC assets.

One thing that won't happen that realignment junkies (like myself) like to play around with: no conferences will merge.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

I don't know who all has been following this, but it is time to revive this thread. Yesterday dropped (and becoming official today) probably the most significant realignment event since the PAC break up. The ACC, FSU, and Clemson are settling, and initial reports suggest that FSU and Clemson (and others indirectly) won BIG!!!! Mostly confirmed hard exit cost of under $100 million after the 2029-2030 season. If true (very likely) the ACC is almost certainly cooked at that point. The B1G and SEC will eat and then the Big 12 will pick up four from the leftovers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1896586541637783556

However, Stuart Mandel reported with On3 that the exit number from day one will be around $200 million. If true, first party talks with the SEC and B1G will probably begin this week. Note this is still unconfirmed, but I expect us to find out today if it is true. Hard to say if this could motivate schools to jump to the Big 12 before 2030, but I definitely think the big dogs will move before then at this number. At that point then it seems likely there will be a battle for the four open spots in the Big 12. Will schools really wait for 2030 and risk getting left out?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1896644483355152670

Who knows when things will actually happen, but it seems almost certain that the ACC's death as a power conference is all but official. We are moving to a Power 3 world. Or at least Power 2+1. Hopefully the Big 12 can negotiate their way to being SORT OF close.

 

[OSUPSYCHO]

I don't know who all has been following this, but it is time to revive this thread. Yesterday dropped (and becoming official today) probably the most significant realignment event since the PAC break up. The ACC, FSU, and Clemson are settling, and initial reports suggest that FSU and Clemson (and others indirectly) won BIG!!!! Mostly confirmed hard exit cost of under $100 million after the 2029-2030 season. If true (very likely) the ACC is almost certainly cooked at that point. The B1G and SEC will eat and then the Big 12 will pick up four from the leftovers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1896586541637783556

However, Stuart Mandel reported with On3 that the exit number from day one will be around $200 million. If true, first party talks with the SEC and B1G will probably begin this week. Note this is still unconfirmed, but I expect us to find out today if it is true. Hard to say if this could motivate schools to jump to the Big 12 before 2030, but I definitely think the big dogs will move before then at this number. At that point then it seems likely there will be a battle for the four open spots in the Big 12. Will schools really wait for 2030 and risk getting left out?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1896644483355152670

Who knows when things will actually happen, but it seems almost certain that the ACC's death as a power conference is all but official. We are moving to a Power 3 world. Or at least Power 2+1. Hopefully the Big 12 can negotiate their way to being SORT OF close.

I am not sure there is an appetite for either of the power 2 to add more teams. Only ND really moves the needle at this point with the media partners. There is actually a decent chance that they could flirt with the Big 12. Especially if PE money gives the conference the cash to make this happen.

 

[PorcupinePoke]

I am not sure there is an appetite for either of the power 2 to add more teams. Only ND really moves the needle at this point with the media partners. There is actually a decent chance that they could flirt with the Big 12. Especially if PE money gives the conference the cash to make this happen.

For anything immediate you might very well be right. Anyone moving now completely depends on if the B1G or SEC will act. They might simply because their are schools like UNC they both want. However, I'm confident saying EVERYONE will act by 2030 at the latest. That is our maximum time frame IMHO. So it would become official around summer 2028 for leaving summer of 2030.

 

[Verbal]

I am not sure there is an appetite for either of the power 2 to add more teams. Only ND really moves the needle at this point with the media partners. There is actually a decent chance that they could flirt with the Big 12. Especially if PE money gives the conference the cash to make this happen.

I can se the P2 conferences adding teams just to give them more power. They do not want an NCAA type of system. They want to be a pro sports system and be the only two conferences.

 

[OSUPSYCHO]

I can se the P2 conferences adding teams just to give them more power. They do not want an NCAA type of system. They want to be a pro sports system and be the only two conferences.

The problem is they can’t just add teams without either getting the media partners to at least add them at the same payout or they will end up diluting the current payouts which is a no go. Media partners are the ones controlling this, not the conferences.

 

[OSUPSYCHO]

For anything immediate you might very well be right. Anyone moving now completely depends on if the B1G or SEC will act. They might simply because there are schools like UNC they both want. However, I'm confident saying EVERYONE will act by 2030 at the latest. That is our maximum time frame IMHO. So it would become official around summer 2028 for leaving summer of 2030.

More likely is that the breakaway will end up happening around 2030. This is the best way to make more money for all as well as get the rules they want put into place.

 

[TXPoke]

More likely is that the breakaway will end up happening around 2030. This is the best way to make more money for all as well as get the rules they want put into place.

This has been my thoughts once the last round was settled. 2029-2031 will have earth shattering changes for college athletics. Very much feels like when the EPL was created.