Conference Realignment - What's next?

CptnQuirk said:
With the SEC playing early conference games, ESPN is guaranteed to have premium gams every week of the season.
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Well, agreed. It’s happened for years now tho-FSU just played 2 conference games to start the season. Big 12 teams have done it too.

I hope the networks force more of it honestly. When you have a little more than 10% of the games pitting power 4 schools against each other, like week 1, it’s just not compelling. And it’s no comparison to what the NFL does
 
DxCowboy said:
Well, agreed. It’s happened for years now tho-FSU just played 2 conference games to start the season. Big 12 teams have done it too.

I hope the networks force more of it honestly. When you have a little more than 10% of the games pitting power 4 schools against each other, like week 1, it’s just not compelling. And it’s no comparison to what the NFL does
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It's supposed to be giving the G5 schools a chance to shine. Of course all the P4 teams stop scheduling the G5 teams that are actually beating them.
 
I'm just going to put my prediction here. Yormack is a mastermind. Much like Washington/Oregon- I think FSU and Clemson eventually get in the SEC or BIG last minute. I would love those two to make it to the B12, and get an ND agreement to make three true power conferences that are fairly equal, but it's a long shot. I think B12 gets VT, NCST, Louisville, and one of Miami/GT/VA- which ever gets left out of BIG. It'll be interesting to watch ORST and WA ST as ESPN is pushing those to Big XII, but I'd rather have more ACC teams because of game times. It does bring the B12 the PAC network to work with and some up front money- plus true coast to coast scheduling times. UCONN and Gonzaga, possibly Duke/Wake/Nova could all be basketball only. ESPN is pushing hard for UCONN to be all sports, but it's a tough sell to several schools. In the next year we'll likely set benchmarks and agreements with UCONN, OR St, and Wa St to test things out and see numbers. My guess is that conference realignment will be closer to 2031 than most think, with a new negotiation coming. Basketball will be decoupled, FSU and Clemson will push for AAU membership and B10 invite. The big kicker is the ESPN renewal for ACC in two years, it could speed things up. Wa St and Or St want to keep all PAC money, so they will do a two year scheduling alliance, I think, and then try to join if the B12 takes them, but B12 wants to see numbers and see how ACC plays out.
 
ThunderPoke said:
I'm just going to put my prediction here. Yormack is a mastermind. Much like Washington/Oregon- I think FSU and Clemson eventually get in the SEC or BIG last minute. I would love those two to make it to the B12, and get an ND agreement to make three true power conferences that are fairly equal, but it's a long shot. I think B12 gets VT, NCST, Louisville, and one of Miami/GT/VA- which ever gets left out of BIG. It'll be interesting to watch ORST and WA ST as ESPN is pushing those to Big XII, but I'd rather have more ACC teams because of game times. It does bring the B12 the PAC network to work with and some up front money- plus true coast to coast scheduling times. UCONN and Gonzaga, possibly Duke/Wake/Nova could all be basketball only. ESPN is pushing hard for UCONN to be all sports, but it's a tough sell to several schools. In the next year we'll likely set benchmarks and agreements with UCONN, OR St, and Wa St to test things out and see numbers. My guess is that conference realignment will be closer to 2031 than most think, with a new negotiation coming. Basketball will be decoupled, FSU and Clemson will push for AAU membership and B10 invite. The big kicker is the ESPN renewal for ACC in two years, it could speed things up. Wa St and Or St want to keep all PAC money, so they will do a two year scheduling alliance, I think, and then try to join if the B12 takes them, but B12 wants to see numbers and see how ACC plays out.
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The ESPN/ACC re-up deadline is February 2025 to continue the contract past 2027. So, that is looming. I still haven't seen a reason presented why ESPN would reject the extension.

PAC 2 has asked for an extension from the NCAA, but they don't have 2 more years at this moment. In all likelihood, they probably have 1 more year to figure things out without an NCAA extension. Currently, the PAC 2 cannot be a stand-alone conference with only 2 members in 2026. They have shutdown talks with the MWC over a scheduling alliance, that could be the first move in a decision to pick off some of their bigger brands.

The biggest issue with UConn as a full member is even a pro-rata ESPN add doesn't make up for diluting bowl & CFP money. For them to be "revenue neutral" as has been said, ESPN would need to pay more for UConn than it does for everyone else in the conference. That said, I think UConn football is stuck in a catch 22, they aren't getting better without a conference home and no one wants them until they get better.
 
ThunderPoke said:
I'm just going to put my prediction here. Yormack is a mastermind. Much like Washington/Oregon- I think FSU and Clemson eventually get in the SEC or BIG last minute. I would love those two to make it to the B12, and get an ND agreement to make three true power conferences that are fairly equal, but it's a long shot. I think B12 gets VT, NCST, Louisville, and one of Miami/GT/VA- which ever gets left out of BIG. It'll be interesting to watch ORST and WA ST as ESPN is pushing those to Big XII, but I'd rather have more ACC teams because of game times. It does bring the B12 the PAC network to work with and some up front money- plus true coast to coast scheduling times. UCONN and Gonzaga, possibly Duke/Wake/Nova could all be basketball only. ESPN is pushing hard for UCONN to be all sports, but it's a tough sell to several schools. In the next year we'll likely set benchmarks and agreements with UCONN, OR St, and Wa St to test things out and see numbers. My guess is that conference realignment will be closer to 2031 than most think, with a new negotiation coming. Basketball will be decoupled, FSU and Clemson will push for AAU membership and B10 invite. The big kicker is the ESPN renewal for ACC in two years, it could speed things up. Wa St and Or St want to keep all PAC money, so they will do a two year scheduling alliance, I think, and then try to join if the B12 takes them, but B12 wants to see numbers and see how ACC plays out.
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You don’t JUST GET AAU membership even if you push hard! It doesn’t work like that!!! 🤔
 
For over a century, the Pac-12 Conference has been recognized as a leading brand in intercollegiate athletics," Commissioner Teresa Gould stated. "We will continue to pursue bold cutting-edge opportunities for growth and progress, to best serve our member institutions and student-athletes. I am thankful to our board for their efforts to welcome Boise State University, Colorado State University, California State University, Fresno, and San Diego State University to the conference. An exciting new era for the Pac-12 Conference begins today."
 
DxCowboy said:
For over a century, the Pac-12 Conference has been recognized as a leading brand in intercollegiate athletics," Commissioner Teresa Gould stated. "We will continue to pursue bold cutting-edge opportunities for growth and progress, to best serve our member institutions and student-athletes. I am thankful to our board for their efforts to welcome Boise State University, Colorado State University, California State University, Fresno, and San Diego State University to the conference. An exciting new era for the Pac-12 Conference begins today."
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Still not a Power conference.
 
DxCowboy said:
For over a century, the Pac-12 Conference has been recognized as a leading brand in intercollegiate athletics," Commissioner Teresa Gould stated. "We will continue to pursue bold cutting-edge opportunities for growth and progress, to best serve our member institutions and student-athletes. I am thankful to our board for their efforts to welcome Boise State University, Colorado State University, California State University, Fresno, and San Diego State University to the conference. An exciting new era for the Pac-12 Conference begins today."
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So who are their next two. They have to move now. Have to have 8 teams by 2026.
 
DxCowboy said:
For over a century, the Pac-12 Conference has been recognized as a leading brand in intercollegiate athletics," Commissioner Teresa Gould stated. "We will continue to pursue bold cutting-edge opportunities for growth and progress, to best serve our member institutions and student-athletes. I am thankful to our board for their efforts to welcome Boise State University, Colorado State University, California State University, Fresno, and San Diego State University to the conference. An exciting new era for the Pac-12 Conference begins today."
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Rhetorical:

Wouldn’t it have just been easier for the last two PAC schools to join the Mountain West?…
 
GratefulPoke said:
I really don't get this move at all. 6 teams is not a conference. They need at least 10 to meet FBS requirements.
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I’m assuming Cal, Stanford and SMU are all available because they don’t have much to lose with their ACC deal. Also San Jose St not based on merit, but it’s a gut feeling.
 
Georgia Poke said:
Rhetorical:

Wouldn’t it have just been easier for the last two PAC schools to join the Mountain West?…
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If the PAC 2 dissolved and merged into the MWC, OrSU & WSU would forfeit much of the leftover cash from PAC 12 and it would be distributed evenly among the former PAC 12 schools. They could've conducted a reverse merger, bringing the entire MWC into the PAC. The reasoning behind that is the PAC 2 and probably the 4 MWC schools they just poached, believe that the majority of MWC programs bring down the conference's media value. There are already reports that the remaining 8 programs will see a significant percentage decrease in their media value.
GratefulPoke said:
I really don't get this move at all. 6 teams is not a conference. They need at least 10 to meet FBS requirements.
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They need 8 to be an eligible conference. It is all about media revenue. This is a move to maximize the media value of a Western conference. That said, I have no idea what the plan is for numbers 7 and 8. Word is they will make that decision as a PAC 6 and not a PAC 2. If they go back to the MWC it will be very expensive for the conference.
 
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