Conference Realignment - What's next?

DeerePoke said:
Your missing what the GOR is. If they move to the SEC/B1G they owe the ACC all the media money they make while they are there until the end of the GOR. There is no buy out. Why do you think the Big 12 is getting 100 million from OU and Texas for them to leave 1 year early. That is their first year SEC media pay check. The ACC will stay together in it's current form until 2036. They also now have the votes to blow up FSU/Clemson hopes of leaving in 2036 by modifying the bylaws.
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I'm not missing anything. I understand all these arguments and I've have personally made them for a long time too. The winds have shifted though. The prevailing thought is that FSU will challenge it in court soon. Primarily because of the massive gulf in income between the ACC and the SEC/B1G. Yes what that outcome will be is still very much up in the air. FSU will likely try to buy out of it even though that isn't the way a GoR works. There is also a theory that they may have some argument for fraud in what they were told to get them to sign it.

Anyway, there is really only one thing you need to know on this subject. The ACC was so scared of defections they specifically added 3 schools now in advance. They publicly stated that as a reason why. Why would they do that if the GoR made it so impossible for anyone to leave.
 
PorcupinePoke said:
I'm not missing anything. I understand all these arguments and I've have personally made them for a long time too. The winds have shifted though. The prevailing thought is that FSU will challenge it in court soon. Primarily because of the massive gulf in income between the ACC and the SEC/B1G. Yes what that outcome will be is still very much up in the air. FSU will likely try to buy out of it even though that isn't the way a GoR works. There is also a theory that they may have some argument for fraud in what they were told to get them to sign it.

Anyway, there is really only one thing you need to know on this subject. The ACC was so scared of defections they specifically added 3 schools now in advance. They publicly stated that as a reason why. Why would they do that if the GoR made it so impossible for anyone to leave.
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That stuff will be playing out in courtrooms for years to come. 2036 may get here before they get done in court. If FSU really wants out that bad I'm sure the ACC will negotiate something for them to go.

The GOR actually makes it cheap and easy for schools to leave. It simply sets a date when they can freely leave. 2030 has the potential to be a bad year for the Big 12. If we make it through 2030 unscathed I see an ACC Big 12 merger in 2036 with the Big 12 dictating it. If we get raided in 2030 I see it going to other way. An ACC Big 12 merger with the ACC dictating it.
 
@DeerePoke We could debate this endlessly, but like I said the best metric to consider is what is actually happening. For the ACC to avoid triggering renegotiation of their deal with ESPN they must stay at or above 15 teams. That is the reason for them adding teams now. Most of the ACC seems convinced that FSU and likely others will not be in the ACC much longer. Both their actions and public statements support that. Believe what you want and we will see what happens, but by far that is the most telling fact IMHO.
 
PorcupinePoke said:
@DeerePoke We could debate this endlessly, but like I said the best metric to consider is what is actually happening. For the ACC to avoid triggering renegotiation of their deal with ESPN they must stay at or above 15 teams. That is the reason for them adding teams now. Most of the ACC seems convinced that FSU and likely others will not be in the ACC much longer. Both their actions and public statements support that. Believe what you want and we will see what happens, but by far that is the most telling fact IMHO.
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Have you heard the latest speculation from the speculators. They are saying FSU and Clemson may end up in the Big 12 because neither the SEC or B1G really want them. Increase our value and give us another Texas level shit show to live with.
 
DeerePoke said:
Have you heard the latest speculation from the speculators. They are saying FSU and Clemson may end up in the Big 12 because neither the SEC or B1G really want them. Increase our value and give us another Texas level shit show to live with.
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More BCS and CFP championships then ou/ut or out will leave with
 
jobob85 said:
I don't either. I think the SEC would have to be insane not to add them.
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I'm not sure they add value to the SEC. SEC already has more than enough top tier games to fill all the network slots available in those areas. B1G we all know wants AAU schools. Expansion is kind of running itself into a hole. How many more schools are the networks gonna pay this stupid money for before it becomes bad business? Only so many slots open for the Big rating games. Amazon or someone else with a different distribution model is gonna have to step in and then who knows where it all goes.
 
PorcupinePoke said:
@DeerePoke We could debate this endlessly, but like I said the best metric to consider is what is actually happening. For the ACC to avoid triggering renegotiation of their deal with ESPN they must stay at or above 15 teams. That is the reason for them adding teams now. Most of the ACC seems convinced that FSU and likely others will not be in the ACC much longer. Both their actions and public statements support that. Believe what you want and we will see what happens, but by far that is the most telling fact IMHO.
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I take it all back the ACC is trying to kill itself.
 
Anticipation Popcorn GIF
 
I would support Amazon or Apple for 3rd Tier games over ESPN+ I feel both those networks have more universal appeal and cast a wider net than ESPN+;

I also feel both companies do a better job at targeting their ads than ESPN+ Where they would widen a casual fanbase more where ESPN+ just mildly deepens an existing fanbase.
 
OrangeFan69 said:
I would support Amazon or Apple for 3rd Tier games over ESPN+ I feel both those networks have more universal appeal and cast a wider net than ESPN+;

I also feel both companies do a better job at targeting their ads than ESPN+ Where they would widen a casual fanbase more where ESPN+ just mildly deepens an existing fanbase.
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Amazon has a much larger reach than Apple.
 
OrangeFan69 said:
I would support Amazon or Apple for 3rd Tier games over ESPN+ I feel both those networks have more universal appeal and cast a wider net than ESPN+;

I also feel both companies do a better job at targeting their ads than ESPN+ Where they would widen a casual fanbase more where ESPN+ just mildly deepens an existing fanbase.
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I was really hoping the media deal would include Amazon or some other streaming (a readily available or free service) for those 3rd tier games. ESPN+ is terrible and has no reach. Even FS1 has no reach. I believe viewership would be much higher on Amazon than FS1. Unfortunately, that's not what we got.
 
Soothsayer said:
I was really hoping the media deal would include Amazon or some other streaming (a readily available or free service) for those 3rd tier games. ESPN+ is terrible and has no reach. Even FS1 has no reach. I believe viewership would be much higher on Amazon than FS1. Unfortunately, that's not what we got.
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Wonder why Netflix hasn't tried jumping into live sports?
 
DeerePoke said:
Wonder why Netflix hasn't tried jumping into live sports?
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It would cost a lot of money to start and Netflix is the only profitable streamer. I think they are going to let others tests the waters and maybe wait for the value to come down. Is Amazon and Apple seeing new subscribers from their sports additions? After the implosion of the regional sports networks, I have to wonder if even small costs like the MWC at $4.5 million per team are seeing profit for the broadcasters.

Basically, the market is too fractured, but costs aren't going down. So, Netflix is holding.
 
Poke Rocker said:
Haven’t they, Amazon, put all their money and effort into their NFL operations!!!
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Prime has around 150 million subscribed in the US alone. That's a lot of people that can watch. Heck that's getting close to the number of people that have cable. We are discovering sports aren't worth nearly as much as ESPN has been paying for them by making everyone who has cable pay for their service even if they never watch sports.

I actually think money wise the Big 12 is in a good spot. Media money has to shrink in the future and the B1G is gonna feel it the worst.
 
celldweller7 said:
It would cost a lot of money to start and Netflix is the only profitable streamer. I think they are going to let others tests the waters and maybe wait for the value to come down. Is Amazon and Apple seeing new subscribers from their sports additions? After the implosion of the regional sports networks, I have to wonder if even small costs like the MWC at $4.5 million per team are seeing profit for the broadcasters.

Basically, the market is too fractured, but costs aren't going down. So, Netflix is holding.
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Netflix has stayed away from Livestreaming- aside from Comedy _ Chris Rock and Chelsea Handler's series, they avoid live. Comedy is one of the least expensive genres to produce, so the risk/reward seems like a factor.
 
DeerePoke said:
Prime has around 150 million subscribed in the US alone. That's a lot of people that can watch. Heck that's getting close to the number of people that have cable. We are discovering sports aren't worth nearly as much as ESPN has been paying for them by making everyone who has cable pay for their service even if they never watch sports.

I actually think money wise the Big 12 is in a good spot. Media money has to shrink in the future and the B1G is gonna feel it the worst.
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The Big 10 Network is a different animal and makes places like Rutgers and Maryland worthwhile. It's really a well run and smartly ran network. It also helps they have more population in their footprint for landline subscribers and a relatively quality product.
 
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