Conference Realignment - What's next?

GratefulPoke said:
Those schools voted for expansion. They wont be leaving anytime soon. There is nothing FSU and Clemson can do, as the GOR is ironclad.

This round of realignment is over, outside of OreST and WSU going to the AAC or Mountain West. Big 12 leadership has decided they are not interested in further expansion at this time.

Things should be relatively stable until 2029 or 2030.
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Let me clarify, I didn't mean all this will happen during this round. Agreed, things are done outside of WSU and OrSU for this year. But Yormark guaranteed is laying the groundwork with those ACC schools now if he wasn't already based on this news.
 
Wow. I get smu has some boosters but zero media for 9 years plus increased travel costs and now having to compete at a higher level? Hope the boosters come through otherwise it’s going to be rough.
 
Wow. Just crazy. Coming here to eat my crow because obviously I was wrong, but only by the slimmest of margins. It is important to note here that this is the first realignment vote I've ever heard of that will OFFICIALLY not be unanimous. That says a lot. NCST may have just solidified their membership in the Big 12 as UNC will likely not fight for them after this. The other way to look at it is that UNC was likely going to be leaving early with FSU and Clemson and NCST knew they couldn't be a part of it. Thus they had to make the best of the existing ACC while they could.

With all this in mind, here is how I'm thinking things are going to go for the ACC. Sometime in the next year or two FSU, Clemson and likely UNC will fight the GOR and find a way break away after writing a big check. The rest won't be able to afford to leave and will have to stay. However, the exit path and price per year will be established. As 2036 gets closer, that price will go down and other schools will slowly start to leave too as the cost benefit ratio turns favorable. The ACC will continue to backfill and will never truly collapse. It will just slow fade into obscurity as their best schools go the B1G, SEC, and the Big 12. Much like it happened for the Big East. The next CFP contract for 2026+ will treat the ACC as an equal Power member. However it will be the last time that happens.
 
GratefulPoke said:
Those schools voted for expansion. They wont be leaving anytime soon. There is nothing FSU and Clemson can do, as the GOR is ironclad.

This round of realignment is over, outside of OreST and WSU going to the AAC or Mountain West. Big 12 leadership has decided they are not interested in further expansion at this time.

Things should be relatively stable until 2029 or 2030.
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Yes and no on the GoR being Ironclad. As the cost disparity increases the risk to reward ratio of someone challenging it changes. FSU (and likely Clemson and UNC) WILL eventually challenge it. That time is probably happening sooner than most think. From the things I've seen and heard it likely comes right after this football season. As for the outcome of that we will have to wait and see, but I'm guessing FSU trys to write a check for the full media rights value through the length of the contract. Roughly $30m times years left. That will be fought by the ACC, but I think they eventually prevail and it sets a precedent for how schools will leave going forward. After that, all that is needed is enough time and income disparity (potential money to be made in another conference) for the cost benefit ratio to fall in favor of each school that will leave. The ACC will continue to backfill and won't die, but it will slowly fade into obscurity as everyone leaves for the B1G, SEC, and Big 12.
 
MT Cowboy said:
With that news I'm willing to bet Yormark is already on the phone with the presidents from NCST, VT, Louisville, and likely some others. If FSU and Clemson weren't already gone, this gives them the last little push they needed, and the rest of the ACC won't be far behind.
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The only thing I will slightly disagree with here is "won't be far behind". I think leaving this early will be VERY expensive. Only a few schools will be able to afford it based on their potential future revenue. As we get closer to 2036 that price to leave goes down. I think the Big 12 adds ACC schools just in time for their next media rights deal. So It would happen around 2029 and they would start in the 2031 fall season. By this point the SEC and B1G would have likely already taken anyone they wanted, or it would happen at the same time.
 
PorcupinePoke said:
The only thing I will slightly disagree with here is "won't be far behind". I think leaving this early will be VERY expensive. Only a few schools will be able to afford it based on their potential future revenue. As we get closer to 2036 that price to leave goes down. I think the Big 12 adds ACC schools just in time for their next media rights deal. So It would happen around 2029 and they would start in the 2031 fall season. By this point the SEC and B1G would have likely already taken anyone they wanted, or it would happen at the same time.
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I had it in my mind the GOR expired earlier than 2036 for some reason, but you're right it's going to be a cost-benefit weighting for all the remainder members the next several years. Only thing of what you've said I can see being different is the playoff considering the ACC an equal power member in contract talks in 2026. I think that all depends on what the three of UNC/Clemson/FSU do between now and then. Without those three, I'd bet the farm on particularly the B1G and $ec fighting like mad to not designate the ACC a power. Those 3 schools will have joined one of those 2 conferences, so they'll feel the money and slots should come with that. And beyond there it's double benefit for them to only have 3 auto-bids, it nets them more playoff money in the short-term via appearances and forces any ACC holdouts to jump ship in the short/long-term of which they can have their pick.

Thank the good Lord that Yormark came in when he did and accomplished what he has. The Big 12 is secured for the foreseeable future, it's going to be so relieving to sit back and watch realignment struggles through 2026 unfold from a position of strength instead of as the carcass being scavenged yet again.
 
MT Cowboy said:
I had it in my mind the GOR expired earlier than 2036 for some reason, but you're right it's going to be a cost-benefit weighting for all the remainder members the next several years. Only thing of what you've said I can see being different is the playoff considering the ACC an equal power member in contract talks in 2026. I think that all depends on what the three of UNC/Clemson/FSU do between now and then. Without those three, I'd bet the farm on particularly the B1G and $ec fighting like mad to not designate the ACC a power. Those 3 schools will have joined one of those 2 conferences, so they'll feel the money and slots should come with that. And beyond there it's double benefit for them to only have 3 auto-bids, it nets them more playoff money in the short-term via appearances and forces any ACC holdouts to jump ship in the short/long-term of which they can have their pick.

Thank the good Lord that Yormark came in when he did and accomplished what he has. The Big 12 is secured for the foreseeable future, it's going to be so relieving to sit back and watch realignment struggles through 2026 unfold from a position of strength instead of as the carcass being scavenged yet again.
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Negotiations for 2026 are not that far off. I think less than a year. FSU and whoever else want join them won't start the process until after this college football season at the earliest. Then it will take at least a year or two as it will have to go through the courts. No way they are in another conference before the 2026+ CFP is negotiated. At worst the ACC would be considered equal to the Big 12 and both would get a lesser share than the B1G and SEC. However, I don't see that happening either. Yormark would know what a slippery slope that will be and will fight like hell not to start down that path. If the B1G and SEC start to push that direction I can see it being countered with senators and congressmen.

As for the Big 12 future, I'm right there with you. Very relieved. However, I would "position of security" rather than "position of strength".
 
PorcupinePoke said:
Negotiations for 2026 are not that far off. I think less than a year. FSU and whoever else want join them won't start the process until after this college football season at the earliest. Then it will take at least a year or two as it will have to go through the courts. No way they are in another conference before the 2026+ CFP is negotiated. At worst the ACC would be considered equal to the Big 12 and both would get a lesser share than the B1G and SEC. However, I don't see that happening either. Yormark would know what a slippery slope that will be and will fight like hell not to start down that path. If the B1G and SEC start to push that direction I can see it being countered with senators and congressmen.

As for the Big 12 future, I'm right there with you. Very relieved. However, I would "position of security" rather than "position of strength".
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Fair way to phrase it with security rather than strength. Given the position we've been in since 2010 though strength feels fitting by comparison.
 
CaptainEric37 said:
Exactly, they didn't want TCU or SMU, but they join a league with Notre Dame and Boston College????
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The truth is it has more to do with being "red states" than religious affiliation. You know, they don't want to be associated with intollerant types who think less of other people. 😏
 
PorcupinePoke said:
The truth is it has more to do with being "red states" than religious affiliation. You know, they don't want to be associated with intollerant types who think less of other people. 😏
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Stanford and Cal voted to accept Arizona and Arizona St in PAC expansion when AZ was red...just saying.

Those two schools like to pretend and posture that religious/political affiliation matters until it is their lives on the line, then they cave to the dollar just like all of them eventually do.
 
PorcupinePoke said:
Yes and no on the GoR being Ironclad. As the cost disparity increases the risk to reward ratio of someone challenging it changes. FSU (and likely Clemson and UNC) WILL eventually challenge it. That time is probably happening sooner than most think. From the things I've seen and heard it likely comes right after this football season. As for the outcome of that we will have to wait and see, but I'm guessing FSU trys to write a check for the full media rights value through the length of the contract. Roughly $30m times years left. That will be fought by the ACC, but I think they eventually prevail and it sets a precedent for how schools will leave going forward. After that, all that is needed is enough time and income disparity (potential money to be made in another conference) for the cost benefit ratio to fall in favor of each school that will leave. The ACC will continue to backfill and won't die, but it will slowly fade into obscurity as everyone leaves for the B1G, SEC, and Big 12.
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Your missing what the GOR is. If they move to the SEC/B1G they owe the ACC all the media money they make while they are there until the end of the GOR. There is no buy out. Why do you think the Big 12 is getting 100 million from OU and Texas for them to leave 1 year early. That is their first year SEC media pay check. The ACC will stay together in it's current form until 2036. They also now have the votes to blow up FSU/Clemson hopes of leaving in 2036 by modifying the bylaws.
 
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