Conference Realignment - What's next?
- Thread starter GratefulPoke
- Start date
PorcupinePoke
New member
The difference is the Big 12 stabilized somewhat quickly. Without looking it up, I think it was only about 2 months or so before things were stable again. We are 9 months after the UCLA and USC announcement and the PAC is still in chaos. They have been trying to get a new media deal for 8 months and nothing. It took the Big 12 2 months and they have signed a new GoR that runs through 2030.
Big difference between the two situations. Make no mistake. The PAC in its current state is in critical care and it isn't looking good. Every day they go without a new media deal is a step closer to oblivion.
PorcupinePoke
New member
@GratefulPoke just looked up @johncanzanobft and holy crap. That is some PAC Coolaid for sure. He literally said a conference source told them matching the big 12 money number was a layup. Lol! Then why had it been over 8 months since negotiations started? Why are they replying to Amazon and apple when everyone knows it will cause a large hit to visibility. It must have been a source at Oregon State. I've noticed their fans are way further off the rails when it comes to what is happening. Pure delusional. I fully understand it though. They stand to lose the most when things fall apart.
I don't know what is going to happen, but I can virtually guarantee that the PAC won't match or beat the big 12 number.
I don't know what is going to happen, but I can virtually guarantee that the PAC won't match or beat the big 12 number.
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PorcupinePoke
New member
Updated: Brett Yormark Has a Smart Plan and I Believe I Know What It Is
Yormark understands football is king, but he also understands his conference is tops among college basketball leagues and that can be monetized better.
PorcupinePoke
New member
Here is the whole thread:
Know that a commenter said this was also reported by @flugempire on Twitter.
Know that a commenter said this was also reported by @flugempire on Twitter.
PorcupinePoke
New member
If the above is true, then we can't be that far away from things getting started. Maybe end of the month. All it takes is one, then negotiations are nuked and the damn breaks. You can't sell a product if you don't know what that product is going to be. They don't even have to be accepted into the big 12. Just an official application will be enough.
So here are my thoughts on how it will go. CU or UA will be the first to start it and the other follows a day or two later. Utah and ASU take slightly longer to apply as they aren't as far along in the process internally.
Oregon and Washington make a last desperate plea for the B1G. I don't think they will get in, but I really don't know. I'm guessing 25% chance of B1G, but if not I think they will put in official applications to the Big 12 a week or two later.
Oregon St and Wazzu will immediately try to apply to the Big 12, but I don't they will even be allowed an official application.
Finally, we will get to see where Cal and Stanford really stand. My gut says they will crack and apply as well, but the evidence suggests otherwise. So I'll say they go down with the ship.
The Big wildcard is the ACC. I think they are too unstable right now to be any kind of player. I can't see them being unified enough to make any decision, but who knows.
So under this scenario what will the Big 12 do? I would think we wouldn't want more than 4. Take Oregon and Washington as long as they come unconditionally and know there will be no favoritism. They can leave if they want when the grant of rights is up like everyone else. After that it is probably UA and CU. If the Cali schools break, take Stanford only. Not sure if UA or CU would be better for the final piece.
So here are my thoughts on how it will go. CU or UA will be the first to start it and the other follows a day or two later. Utah and ASU take slightly longer to apply as they aren't as far along in the process internally.
Oregon and Washington make a last desperate plea for the B1G. I don't think they will get in, but I really don't know. I'm guessing 25% chance of B1G, but if not I think they will put in official applications to the Big 12 a week or two later.
Oregon St and Wazzu will immediately try to apply to the Big 12, but I don't they will even be allowed an official application.
Finally, we will get to see where Cal and Stanford really stand. My gut says they will crack and apply as well, but the evidence suggests otherwise. So I'll say they go down with the ship.
The Big wildcard is the ACC. I think they are too unstable right now to be any kind of player. I can't see them being unified enough to make any decision, but who knows.
So under this scenario what will the Big 12 do? I would think we wouldn't want more than 4. Take Oregon and Washington as long as they come unconditionally and know there will be no favoritism. They can leave if they want when the grant of rights is up like everyone else. After that it is probably UA and CU. If the Cali schools break, take Stanford only. Not sure if UA or CU would be better for the final piece.
In the above scenario you take 6
OrangeFanatic2
Deputy
So what is everyone's ideal number and teams here IF this were to actually happen? Add 4 and make it 16 or add 6 to get to 18?
Ideally I say we take all the good teams we can. However I don't think the media partners will pay for them. Thus I think we only take 4 teams and I think AZ is almost a lock for one of those. Their basketball is a big add with the plans to spin off the basketball content in the next round of media negotiations.
OrangeFanatic2
Deputy
Agreed. 4 seems like the most logical number, gets us to 16 which is solid. Arizona basketball would be an awesome addition to this already loaded conference, would be some great future matchups. Obviously Oregon and Washington would be great additions as well overall but I just don't see that happening. I feel like they'll end up in the Big10 when it's all said and done. My 4 would then be Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. That is if we're only considering the Pac12 schools.
Big 12 readies to pounce on Four Corners schools as doubt creeps in about Pac-12's viability
Realignment and expansion has slowed, but it has absolutely not stopped
www.cbssports.com
Washington, Oregon, Utah and Stanford all would be net gains in television ratings and quality of play. Stanford’s play has dipped recently because Transferring out of Stanford is exponentially harder than transferring into Stanford.
Arizona State is basically a neutral.
Arizona and Colorado have abysmal television ratings for a P5 team. Adding them would be a speculative risk. Colorado hasn’t made bowl games in consecutive seasons since 2005. They are both severely overshadowed by the NFL teams in their markets.
Cal has upside, but their administration is in chaos and their stadium financing deal is a severe red flag.
Washington State and Oregon State are Mountain West schools with Pac12 names. They would be an absolute waster of a revenue share.
The only thing unequal revenue sharing guarantees is future conference instability later.
Arizona State is basically a neutral.
Arizona and Colorado have abysmal television ratings for a P5 team. Adding them would be a speculative risk. Colorado hasn’t made bowl games in consecutive seasons since 2005. They are both severely overshadowed by the NFL teams in their markets.
Cal has upside, but their administration is in chaos and their stadium financing deal is a severe red flag.
Washington State and Oregon State are Mountain West schools with Pac12 names. They would be an absolute waster of a revenue share.
The only thing unequal revenue sharing guarantees is future conference instability later.
Seems there is mutual disinterest between the Big 12 and Utah. But I'm sure it's nothing a few $$s won't be able to change when stuff starts moving.