The Steross Market and Investing Thread

[Donnyboy]

So, what is this? Stagflation?

I make really good money and don't feel like I can afford shit like I used to buy. And, by "can't afford" I really mean "won't afford." I'm not waiting in line or booking the 9:15pm table that is all that is left to get some kinda good food that will cost me $200, or $350 if my daughter comes because she drinks a lot more than my wife.

This is gonna sound crappy, but working in health care, the best times for me are when the economy sucks. Things are cheaper, more available, and I'm not fighting with the "new rich-ish" people blowing money to appear rich. I feel bad, but it is true.

And, frankly, no matter what report Zero Hedge or anyone else comes up with, I just ain't seeing a bad economy. Not in my life, and not in the real indicators I look at.

IMHO, we are still climbing a wall of worry, and we've still got a lot of climbing to do.

It's still inflation....it's slowed but not over and energy costs rising will move it back up. Stagflation may be where we are headed ala Japan of years back and that could be the best outcome. I don't know exactly what you make but can venture a decent guess based on knowing where you live and what you do for primary income and you do do well and live in a cheap city. When stuff sucks you do well and have been doing well for years.....you are in the group that will be last to feel this...maybe even come out better when there is blood in the streets buy land kinda deal. Imagine your kids are 14 and 10 instead of adults and you and the lovely Mrs. Steross brought home 100-125K between the two of you and it costs 25% more for groceries, gas has been higher for over a year than it has since 2014, CPI is higher than it's been since 2000, electricity is up 27% in the last 3 years, and the interest on that used car you need to replace is double....

Zero Hedge didn't create the number 800K the Philly Fed did....how is 800k of the 2023 jobs reports totals not being real a good thing?

I don't see what you are seeing. I trust your eye you're a smart guy but where is the good news? Building permits are down, mortgage applications are down, wages stagnant (negative against inflation), jobs aren't growing anywhere near where they are saying, delinquencies are up on home and auto loans, auto sales are still well under pre-pandemic levels with possibly more rate increases and certainly more holds coming, rent is up and still rising, personal debt is at all time highs....personal savings are dropping (median savings down from $4500 22 to $1200 23 and average down from $35,336 or 25,898) with savings rates close to pre-08 crisis lows in other words people are financing life not vacations or a special a Christmas gift, big bank reserve ratios are dropping under 1:1, regional bank failures and bail outs, commercial real estate is way down, tax data shows as much as 24% (conservatively 20 which is ahead of projections) of single family home purchases are private equity which will be bad for the average John/Jane Doe, the fed is insolvent, national debt load is growing due to spending to dangerous levels debt % of GDP is up 16% in the last few years......where is the good news besides Wall Street? The market is rocking your investments are growing your wealth....it sucks to make less than 100K right now and that's most folks.....if all or even most of those things keep trending something has to give. A big correction or years of blah.

 

[steross]

It's still inflation....it's slowed but not over and energy costs rising will move it back up. Stagflation may be where we are headed ala Japan of years back and that could be the best outcome. I don't know exactly what you make but can venture a decent guess based on knowing where you live and what you do for primary income and you do do well and live in a cheap city. When stuff sucks you do well and have been doing well for years.....you are in the group that will be last to feel this...maybe even come out better when there is blood in the streets buy land kinda deal. Imagine your kids are 14 and 10 instead of adults and you and the lovely Mrs. Steross brought home 100-125K between the two of you and it costs 25% more for groceries, gas has been higher for over a year than it has since 2014, CPI is higher than it's been since 2000, electricity is up 27% in the last 3 years, and the interest on that used car you need to replace is double....

Zero Hedge didn't create the number 800K the Philly Fed did....how is 800k of the 2023 jobs reports totals not being real a good thing?

I don't see what you are seeing. I trust your eye you're a smart guy but where is the good news? Building permits are down, mortgage applications are down, wages stagnant (negative against inflation), jobs aren't growing anywhere near where they are saying, delinquencies are up on home and auto loans, auto sales are still well under pre-pandemic levels with possibly more rate increases and certainly more holds coming, rent is up and still rising, personal debt is at all time highs....personal savings are dropping (median savings down from $4500 22 to $1200 23 and average down from $35,336 or 25,898) with savings rates close to pre-08 crisis lows in other words people are financing life not vacations or a special a Christmas gift, big bank reserve ratios are dropping under 1:1, regional bank failures and bail outs, commercial real estate is way down, tax data shows as much as 24% (conservatively 20 which is ahead of projections) of single family home purchases are private equity which will be bad for the average John/Jane Doe, the fed is insolvent, national debt load is growing due to spending to dangerous levels debt % of GDP is up 16% in the last few years......where is the good news besides Wall Street? The market is rocking your investments are growing your wealth....it sucks to make less than 100K right now and that's most folks.....if all or even most of those things keep trending something has to give. A big correction or years of blah.

I'm not saying it is all roses. The Fed purposefully (and FAR too late) chilled the economy to fight inflation. And, yep, that hurts the little guy more than Wall Street. The things you are listing are mostly those planned effects and or the type of stuff that is always smoldering. There is always doom and gloom news. I can tell you as an older guy, I used to listen to that intently. I would hold on to cash for the "coming market crash." I ate up Jeremey Grantham, Roubini ect that predicted 20 of the 3 coming crashes. I'd look at jobs reports and "shadow" jobs reports and all of the bad stuff. And it COST ME A TON OF MONEY. I'd be retired by now if I just let the market tell me what is happening not the news. That is just long-term market math. Sure it could change, but I've got more than a century of data telling me it won't.

The Fed has to balance cooling inflation without knocking us into recession. So far, that is what has happened. I think they thought it would cool more than it has. They stabbed the economy with a knife and the economy said, "Ow, that hurt a little." and went on with its business. People aren't happy paying higher prices. Nobody cares about that. They will care when people say, "Meh, I'm fine with my iPhone6 and some packaged ramen noodles" instead of a iP15 and a meal out at a ramen place charging $23 for ramen in a decorative Japanese bowl. So far, they are still spending, just whining about it.

And, barring something unforeseen like a pandemic or a GFC, I'm just not seeing anything that will change it. Not a prediction, just that nothing looks recession-worthy to me at this point. It will be interesting to see what they do on interest rates with the election coming. If they drop them, Trump is gonna whine that they are helping Biden. If they keep them too high, they might put us into recession.

A concerning thing from a cycle standpoint is the election coming up and typically we get a lift with elections. We either elect a new leader and people are excited by the potential, or we confirm that we are happy with the current one. Well, look at the load of crap this election will be. We either confirm a leader who is not favorable, or re-elect someone who already had his chance and divided the country. This isn't ideal and is a huge flaw in what our system has become.

 

[Pokey]

I'm not saying it is all roses. The Fed purposefully (and FAR too late) chilled the economy to fight inflation. And, yep, that hurts the little guy more than Wall Street. The things you are listing are mostly those planned effects and or the type of stuff that is always smoldering. There is always doom and gloom news. I can tell you as an older guy, I used to listen to that intently. I would hold on to cash for the "coming market crash." I ate up Jeremey Grantham, Roubini ect that predicted 20 of the 3 coming crashes. I'd look at jobs reports and "shadow" jobs reports and all of the bad stuff. And it COST ME A TON OF MONEY. I'd be retired by now if I just let the market tell me what is happening not the news. That is just long-term market math. Sure it could change, but I've got more than a century of data telling me it won't.

The Fed has to balance cooling inflation without knocking us into recession. So far, that is what has happened. I think they thought it would cool more than it has. They stabbed the economy with a knife and the economy said, "Ow, that hurt a little." and went on with its business. People aren't happy paying higher prices. Nobody cares about that. They will care when people say, "Meh, I'm fine with my iPhone6 and some packaged ramen noodles" instead of a iP15 and a meal out at a ramen place charging $23 for ramen in a decorative Japanese bowl. So far, they are still spending, just whining about it.

And, barring something unforeseen like a pandemic or a GFC, I'm just not seeing anything that will change it. Not a prediction, just that nothing looks recession-worthy to me at this point. It will be interesting to see what they do on interest rates with the election coming. If they drop them, Trump is gonna whine that they are helping Biden. If they keep them too high, they might put us into recession.

A concerning thing from a cycle standpoint is the election coming up and typically we get a lift with elections. We either elect a new leader and people are excited by the potential, or we confirm that we are happy with the current one. Well, look at the load of crap this election will be. We either confirm a leader who is not favorable, or re-elect someone who already had his chance and divided the country. This isn't ideal and is a huge flaw in what our system has become.

Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.

 

[Big Huck]

It's still inflation....it's slowed but not over and energy costs rising will move it back up. Stagflation may be where we are headed ala Japan of years back and that could be the best outcome. I don't know exactly what you make but can venture a decent guess based on knowing where you live and what you do for primary income and you do do well and live in a cheap city. When stuff sucks you do well and have been doing well for years.....you are in the group that will be last to feel this...maybe even come out better when there is blood in the streets buy land kinda deal. Imagine your kids are 14 and 10 instead of adults and you and the lovely Mrs. Steross brought home 100-125K between the two of you and it costs 25% more for groceries, gas has been higher for over a year than it has since 2014, CPI is higher than it's been since 2000, electricity is up 27% in the last 3 years, and the interest on that used car you need to replace is double....

Zero Hedge didn't create the number 800K the Philly Fed did....how is 800k of the 2023 jobs reports totals not being real a good thing?

I don't see what you are seeing. I trust your eye you're a smart guy but where is the good news? Building permits are down, mortgage applications are down, wages stagnant (negative against inflation), jobs aren't growing anywhere near where they are saying, delinquencies are up on home and auto loans, auto sales are still well under pre-pandemic levels with possibly more rate increases and certainly more holds coming, rent is up and still rising, personal debt is at all time highs....personal savings are dropping (median savings down from $4500 22 to $1200 23 and average down from $35,336 or 25,898) with savings rates close to pre-08 crisis lows in other words people are financing life not vacations or a special a Christmas gift, big bank reserve ratios are dropping under 1:1, regional bank failures and bail outs, commercial real estate is way down, tax data shows as much as 24% (conservatively 20 which is ahead of projections) of single family home purchases are private equity which will be bad for the average John/Jane Doe, the fed is insolvent, national debt load is growing due to spending to dangerous levels debt % of GDP is up 16% in the last few years......where is the good news besides Wall Street? The market is rocking your investments are growing your wealth....it sucks to make less than 100K right now and that's most folks.....if all or even most of those things keep trending something has to give. A big correction or years of blah.

I'm not sure if you invest but if you do it seems like you need to separate your politics from your economics. When Trump was in office I wasn't actively cheering against the economy, which it seems like you're doing. I was happy to see my portfolio do well. And some of the stuff you're saying is just flat out wrong. The Fed has given absolutely zero indication they'll raise interest rates again and almost everyone outside wherever you get your news agrees they'll start cutting later this year. Also wage growth has been pretty solid under Biden, with low level earners seeing the highest increase in wages.

And there's still zero evidence of this 800k Philly Fed claim outside of you and Zero Hedge.

 

[Bowers3]

Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.

What Steross is saying now and what I was telling Donny a few days ago is that he just needs to zoom out. I'll post some charts compiled by an independent website that I've referenced here before. If you focus on the years around the pandemic, you can come to all sorts of negative conclusions. But if you zoom out:

 

[Bowers3]

Also, yes. Mortgage applications are down because rates are up. That means Quantitative Tightening is working. As a result, housing prices are normalizing.

CRE is collapsing. Yes. Nothing to do with economic conditions though. Companies just realized they don't need the space. This will take a few more banks down with it. But only the ones too exposed to CRE. And they'll get bought up and consolidated.

Fed literally can't be insolvent.

There will be a lot of short term pain. Money has been free for a couple decades. Rate environment/monetary policy is normalizing not "skyrocketing."

 

[steross]

Sorry Steross, but when compared to a wannabe dictator I’d say one candidate IS much more FAVORABLE . Do appreciate your more positive outlook than doom and gloom Donnyboy.

I was speaking about favorability ratings which are very low for Biden not my personal favorability between the two choices.

 

[Donnyboy]

I'm not sure if you invest but if you do it seems like you need to separate your politics from your economics. When Trump was in office I wasn't actively cheering against the economy, which it seems like you're doing. I was happy to see my portfolio do well. And some of the stuff you're saying is just flat out wrong. The Fed has given absolutely zero indication they'll raise interest rates again and almost everyone outside wherever you get your news agrees they'll start cutting later this year. Also wage growth has been pretty solid under Biden, with low level earners seeing the highest increase in wages.

And there's still zero evidence of this 800k Philly Fed claim outside of you and Zero Hedge.

Go look up the Early Benchmark data on the Philly Fed website.....then read it.

I'm not actively cheering against the economy but I'm not calling chicken sh... chicken salad. I wish we had a booming economy that's good for everyone but we have a collection of markers that are all bad and god forbid you say anything other than things are great.

 

[Donnyboy]

What Steross is saying now and what I was telling Donny a few days ago is that he just needs to zoom out. I'll post some charts compiled by an independent website that I've referenced here before. If you focus on the years around the pandemic, you can come to all sorts of negative conclusions. But if you zoom out:

Help me out here....how does zooming out make this better? I'm not saying this is the worst economy in the history of our country and every metric is worse than it's ever been I'm saying all those things I listed is are cause for alarm and usually signal an economic event. Then you posted charts that show changes as dramatic as any on the expanded view in the wrong direction.....like yes credit card debt has been higher as a percent of disposable income but in the 20 years you listed it has been falling....now it rising faster than it does on the expanded view and for 3 consecutive years which also didn't happen on the chart. Credit card delinquencies are lower than the 08 crash but look at the graph heading in to that and look at the last few years the last time delinquencies trended like this American housing blew up. Interest/debt.....last time it jumped like this is early 80's when interest was in the teens and we were in a recession......the multiple job holders yes it has been higher in the past but look at the stark directional difference in the last three years. Like you have to tie it to the 80-82 recession or 08 housing bubble to see trends that look like the last few years. That's what I'm saying.....things aren't trending in the right direction and all you hear is how great it is.....things are pointing to a correction not a uptick.

 

[Polds4OSU]

Insider trading around acquisition of Truth Social...color me shocked

2 Brothers Plead Guilty In Trump Media Insider Trading Case

Investor brothers Michael and Gerald Shvartsman admitted they made more than $22 million through illegal trades ahead of an announcement of a merger between Digital World Acquisition Corp and Trump Media.

www.forbes.com

 

[Bowers3]

Help me out here....how does zooming out make this better? I'm not saying this is the worst economy in the history of our country and every metric is worse than it's ever been I'm saying all those things I listed is are cause for alarm and usually signal an economic event. Then you posted charts that show changes as dramatic as any on the expanded view in the wrong direction.....like yes credit card debt has been higher as a percent of disposable income but in the 20 years you listed it has been falling....now it rising faster than it does on the expanded view and for 3 consecutive years which also didn't happen on the chart. Credit card delinquencies are lower than the 08 crash but look at the graph heading in to that and look at the last few years the last time delinquencies trended like this American housing blew up. Interest/debt.....last time it jumped like this is early 80's when interest was in the teens and we were in a recession......the multiple job holders yes it has been higher in the past but look at the stark directional difference in the last three years. Like you have to tie it to the 80-82 recession or 08 housing bubble to see trends that look like the last few years. That's what I'm saying.....things aren't trending in the right direction and all you hear is how great it is.....things are pointing to a correction not a uptick.

Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.

 

[Big Huck]

Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.

The economy still hasn't normalized either. We're still seeing certain sectors boom while others lag which is a Covid hangover as well. Honestly people have been predicting a recession for how long now? Meanwhile GDP just keeps getting revised upwards quarter after quarter.

 

[Donnyboy]

Context. All economic data is going to have a big "V" on the charts from the pandemic. We just haven't put enough time between now and then to see things normalize. Credit card debt/disposable income is rising faster than probably ever. But it dropped faster than ever in 2020. Was that because the economy was doing so freakin' well? No. It was the influx of government cash to consumers during a pandemic. Same thing now, is the fast-rising credit card debt/disposable income line because the economy is so bad? I don't think so. I'll bet we'll see it level off like it had been before 2020. I could be wrong.

Absolutely Covid was a different event and fall out should be expected...maybe it's just the difference in half full or empty glasses.

 

[jobob85]

Absolutely Covid was a different event and fall out should be expected...maybe it's just the difference in half full or empty glasses.

It’s regression to the mean. We are just a good 10 - 15% market correction from taming inflation

 

[steross]

So, basically, we quit smoking, shuffled some tech names and retailers, quit building as many cars, and started sucking more money out of the health care system.

 

[Big Huck]

I'm about to have to sell a good chunk of Diamondback Energy (FANG) for a down payment on a home. Bought during pandemic lows and even though I know it's a good time to sell so hard to let any of these shares go. This is such a well-run, shareholder friendly, cash making machine. Should absolutely be at the top of anyone's list if you like oil.

 

[Polds4OSU]

Jobs report out today ..more good news for Biden Admin and the economy....

 

[Big Huck]

Jobs report out today ..more good news for Biden Admin and the economy....

View attachment 4259

Only Donald Trump can save us from these immaculate job numbers!

 

[Bowers3]

So, basically, we quit smoking, shuffled some tech names and retailers, quit building as many cars, and started sucking more money out of the health care system.View attachment 4256

Aw, I miss Sears.....

 

[Polds4OSU]