The Steross Market and Investing Thread
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Relatively. And it actually is. Due for a recession for sure. I've been in finance for 10+ years. I know to adjust for the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers that they always inflate and overstate. But even accounting for those. Historically good times.
My 401(k)s definitely disagree with you. *shoulder shrug*
Then you know better..... There are gains post covid that were going to occur because anything is better than shut down. Historically good times is like saying you take more steps than when you were bedridden.....doesn't mean you are up and running. There are real problems with bank liquidity, commercial real estate, consumer debt, cost of housing, inflation, wage growth, debt to GDP all problems that don't exist in historically good economic times
Then what else matters amirite?!?!!?
Bedridden? That's a bit of an exaggeration. When else was a better time? The US economy has had solid growth since the financial crisis. Ask any country in the Eurozone how they're doing. Many of them are already in a recession. China's economy is faltering fast. Huge foreign capital outflows there. Of course there are problems, some more than others. We live in a huge-ass, diversified-as-f*ck economy that any other country would gladly accept. I believe inflation, CRE, and housing bubbles to probably be the biggest problems that could become something bigger. There's always going to be those hurdles. That's how this works. But we're doing better than the rest of the world. Anyway, Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine.
It's certainly an indicator that your hyperbole about the "bedridden" state of the economy is just that.....hyperbole.
The whole world was shut down that’s pretty much bedridden. It wasn’t policy that did it and I’m not saying that but when things are on lockdown it impacts the economy. Ships sink fast and turn around slowly.. That’s why I mentioned covid in the preceding sentence. That’s what all these historic gains are being measured against. An outside stimulus that wrecked the whole world for awhile. What’s being stated now about the economy is meteoric growth but that was gonna happen when people can go outside or go to work or anywhere. These aren’t historically good times and the stats from the govt are juked well beyond believable. Thats why when you get what would be one of the greatest job reports anyone could ask for don’t hear the big banks simultaneously orgasming JPM, Goldman, CS would normally cream their collective jeans over 353k jobs on a 160k projection. But they don’t have a money machine to crank out trillions a year so they are watching savings drop, debt rise, private jobs shrink, and loan reserves drop from 1.6:1 to 0.9:1, mortgage delinquency rates stop falling, commercial lease delinquency rates rise, and auto loan delinquency rates rise:
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Stillwater Townie
Deputy
Interest rates are supposed to go down later this year, supposedly to make Democrats look good for the Nov. elections. But doing that will make the dollar look less attractive to invest in and make price of gold go up as a better investment. Therefore, the government may have trouble selling bonds, causing interest rates and inflation to go back up. One has to hope as a counter reaction that the other major economies of the world won't look any more attractive to invest in. China isn't looking strong for now. Neither is Europe.
The lengths you’ll go to to deny any credit …..even the least little bit….for anything to Biden is mind-boggling.
SMH.
Yeah.... Meteoric rise purely due to coming out of Covid would have been 2+ years ago. Covid lockdowns ended how long ago now? People have been back to normal (Covid restriction wise) for a long time.
Weren't we supposed to be in a recession all of last year? That's what I kept hearing, the recession is coming the recession is coming. Maybe something was actually done that prevented it and economy isn't as bad off as some heads like to say.
I didn't really go to any lengths I just cited easy to find data because instead of believing a headline I looked at the reports....like say "hey Donnyboy you're full of crap they didn't drop the hours worked to make wages look good and outright lie about job totals" but you can't because they did..... So again.....wages down, bank reserves upside down at the big bank level worse at the regional level (remember Silicon Valley going tits up in the best economy ever), private sector jobs shrinking, home sales dropping, auto sales dropping, personal savings down from 11% in 21 to 3.3% in 23, personal debt at 17.5 Trillion with non housing debt being 4.7 Trillion largest totals ever, money being issued at reckless rates, commercial real estate value down 22% from March 22 peak, bankruptcy fillings are up at 433K year ending Sept 23 from 380K previous year..... and saying the economy is great....how based on what....reports that a first year finance student can find the crap in? A lot of it started before covid during Trump's admin...a lot was exacerbated by covid....Biden didn't hold any office when a ton of this mess got rolling. But they are peeing on our leg and telling us that it's raining. I don't care who is in office that isn't a good thing....if my momma was president I'd call BS on these reports. What am I supposed to give credit for here.....being extremely creative with economic reports? You remember back in the ancient times of the 1990s and 2000s when any one those was a cause for concern? Now it is a signal of historically good economic times....just ask the people manipulating the data.
Stop making sense. You have wandered into the wrong place. But..but...but.... my 401k!!!
My point is that the answer's always somewhere in the middle. You can type your rants and expect everyone to take everything you say as fact, but it requires a LOT more context. Of course the Bureau of Labor Statistics and CNBC are going to paint a rosier picture. You have to delve deeper and correct for that. I just think you're overcorrecting. That's all. Not as rosy as they say, but definitely not as gloomy as you say.
Just for example. Your non housing debt. Let's take credit cards. All time high, yes. But as percentage of disposable income, just above the all time low set in 2021.
Never once did I say do nothing.... I said we can't just throw money we don't have at it.
He's Chicken Littling.....to justify doing nothing to stop the re-emergence of Russia's Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe.
The sky is hardly falling Donny, no matter how much you quack that it is.
Meh, like I said I get being all doom and gloom. I always have the attitude "it's happened before it'll happen again." Is there an economic crisis coming? Absolutely. There always will be. In that aspect, being doom and gloom is safe because you can always say "see I was right!" Everything is cyclical. Donny's right. I'm right. Who gives a shit.
We also had unprecedented economic growth in the 90’s.
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