Rhetoric aside. The price of oil is one of the great economic models of supply and demand. It will paint the biggest picture of how the economy is faring. Canary down the well bore so to speak.“They took all of our oil… and we want it back.” — Trump, escalates rhetoric on Venezuela, alleging the country illegally seized U.S. oil rights. His remarks followed his announcement of a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers, amid rising threats of direct military involvement.
Today February crude futures sit below 56.50. We don’t print above $60/barrel until mid 2029. We don’t trade over $62 in ANY futures contract month which goes out thru February 2037.
His domestic economic policies are devastating the oil and gas industry. One of the only saving graces is that we have neglected drilling natgas wells and a cold start to winter has caused a mini run in natgas prices. That is propping up US rig counts right now. But this also means he was full of it when he said electric prices will be coming down.
Crude oil futures prices tell us we are in an oversupplied market. That is a combination of too much US production and the US economy cooling. No way to dispute the fact we are oversupplied.
So why invade Venezuela and bring even more production to market? There is no overall America 1st agenda to this.