The Steross Market and Investing Thread
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Stillwater Townie
Ranger
Anyway, it's amazing how nearly all European stock markets returned better than the U. S., considering there is war between Russia and the Ukraine. And Trump brags how good the U. S. is doing.
AI is a massive bubble at this point. When it pops, watch out.
Or is it C a correction comes regardless.
Or d the market has disconnected from fundamentals and is consumer driven through broader access/more activity.
Going all the way back to Trumps first term te market has been overvalued based on everything that was true about the market before the 2019 avg would be close to 26.5K……markets change but when you look at the performance through Covid (after a roughly 25% very short correction) then look at the performance through completely different political environments you either have to throw the fundamentals out the window for good or this thing has to correct violently at some point. 47,888 today…..the market is up 80% form it’s red hot 2019 average? That’s crazy when you consider at a minimum 2 of those years an huge part of the world was shutdown. If you want to claim it’s Trump then explain Biden if you want to claim it’s Biden then why haven’t we crashed. It’s disconnected entirely. It doesn’t care about interest rates anymore, the jobs reports are so bad they don’t matter consumer index fluctuations don’t move it meaningfully debt numbers for individuals or banks aren’t slowing it down. So there is either so much personal trading money/automatic 401K institutional like trading now that the old fundamentals are all wrong and it’s now just a me against you casino or this bubble has to pop. Y’all know me I’m a doomsayer on the economy but I’m leaning hard toward the casino because we are 6 years and global pandemic late for a value correction. 80% gains through a global pandemic, nuclear capable countries at war on two continents, the worst fire season in decades, massive flooding/hurricane disasters, the largest winter storm on record warping energy markets, the international pipeline that feed Europe its gas being intentionally destroyed, two completely different political agendas in office, multiple quarters of bad real estate numbers, massive devaluation of commercial leasing, record inflation, 4 + now years of a stagnant job market, loss of real wages,, nationwide store closures of publicly traded chains, hospitality sector troubles, airline sector trouble, supply chain chaos, 100% tariffs today 0% tomorrow ……up 80% that’s not based on reality.
Polds4OSU
Marshall
124K views · 5.4K reactions | They sold the Big Beautiful Bill with slogans. I’m showing you the receipts. Math exposes where $4.3 trillion really went — offshore shelters, mega-estate loopholes, corporate tax breaks, and pass-through payouts. Meanwh
They sold the Big Beautiful Bill with slogans. I’m showing you the receipts. Math exposes where $4.3 trillion really went — offshore shelters, mega-estate loopholes, corporate tax breaks, and...
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So basically the rich have figured out yet another way to game the system. That and "money" has no basis in reality and thus no intrinsic value?
I have a decent amount of money from buying Nvidia ~5 years ago. All of this talk of an AI bubble collapse is making me think I should take a large portion of it out, perhaps bury in my backyard.
I've been thinking of selling some of my semiconductor stocks in small chunks. I don't think those are as bubbly though. A lot of their PE ratios are lower than Costco but no one is ready for that conversation, lol.
Inflation, especially in housing and insurance, has squeezed most consumers. That’s the biggest reason for negative sentiment right now.
The labor market is in neutral. Low hiring/low firing.
So the Fed is in a tough spot.
Everything just feels flat.
The labor market is in neutral. Low hiring/low firing.
So the Fed is in a tough spot.
Everything just feels flat.
I'd agree we are in some rare air up here. I don't think Biden or Trump matter as much as they want us to think they do when it is going up.
I would not be surprised if the AI boom causes this to drift above the dot.com boom peak.
If this accelerates, that would change my mind. Jobs reports don't matter but it would be quite a historic change if steadily increasing unemployment didn't cause a recession because it is one of the few things that works about every time.
