The Steross Market and Investing Thread

JTOSU said:
Disagree — it is not limited.
It has become dominant for “customer service” for large corporations and making in-roads for smaller companies. Already it performs chat-bot services for hundreds of thousands of companies and new vendors are showcasing “sentiment analysis” which will further define what we call “customer service”.
For operational efficiency, it has more than a toe-hold for logistics companies and in the not-too-distant future will be a major part of service deliveries both local and worldwide.
Not only are financial service firms significantly utilizing AI, but finance departments in major corporations and public sectors have started using.
AI is just barely in its infancy. As one pundit put it recently, AI just passed the “stone age”, the development and usage will grow exponentially in almost every industry.
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It is very much limited. It does not "think", does not have common sense and does not have an understanding of morality. It cannot reason.

Plus, it still hallucinates and is wrong very frequently. Just pick anything you are a subject matters expert on and use it a bunch. You will find it is not that reliable.
 
GratefulPoke said:
It is very much limited. It does not "think", does not have common sense and does not have an understanding of morality. It cannot reason.

Plus, it still hallucinates and is wrong very frequently. Just pick anything you are a subject matters expert on and use it a bunch. You will find it is not that reliable.
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Sure AI hallucinates. It’s an error. Errors that for most activities when comparable to humans happen at a MUCH lower rate.

With AI we are just getting out of the Paleolithic age and just entering Neolithic. Those that don’t see it are destined to be this generation’s Ken Olsen (although he did come around). And so did Robert Metcalfe who famously literally ate his words when he predicted in the mid-90s that the Internet would collapse.

My favorite AI tool I seen in the last month: Teachers just this year in Oklahoma have a brand new AI tool that allows them to build complex multi-day lesson plans, PowerPoint presentations, classroom activities like AI chatbots of historical figures, in seconds…from pdfs, docs, websites, and YouTube videos. Or simply change the reading language by any grade to differentiate for students ability. The tool also has the ability to auto grade and add comments on student work for teachers.
 
JTOSU said:
Sure AI hallucinates. It’s an error. Errors that for most activities when comparable to humans happen at a MUCH lower rate.

With AI we are just getting out of the Paleolithic age and just entering Neolithic. Those that don’t see it are destined to be this generation’s Ken Olsen (although he did come around). And so did Robert Metcalfe who famously literally ate his words when he predicted in the mid-90s that the Internet would collapse.

My favorite AI tool I seen in the last month: Teachers just this year in Oklahoma have a brand new AI tool that allows them to build complex multi-day lesson plans, PowerPoint presentations, classroom activities like AI chatbots of historical figures, in seconds…from pdfs, docs, websites, and YouTube videos. Or simply change the reading language by any grade to differentiate for students ability. The tool also has the ability to auto grade and add comments on student work for teachers.
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You: AI is the future.

Me:



The hard part is when my 12 year old says something stupid 12 year olds think are funny and my pea sized brain can't adult well enough to have a parent appropriate response.
 
JTOSU said:
Sure AI hallucinates. It’s an error. Errors that for most activities when comparable to humans happen at a MUCH lower rate.

With AI we are just getting out of the Paleolithic age and just entering Neolithic. Those that don’t see it are destined to be this generation’s Ken Olsen (although he did come around). And so did Robert Metcalfe who famously literally ate his words when he predicted in the mid-90s that the Internet would collapse.

My favorite AI tool I seen in the last month: Teachers just this year in Oklahoma have a brand new AI tool that allows them to build complex multi-day lesson plans, PowerPoint presentations, classroom activities like AI chatbots of historical figures, in seconds…from pdfs, docs, websites, and YouTube videos. Or simply change the reading language by any grade to differentiate for students ability. The tool also has the ability to auto grade and add comments on student work for teachers.
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It gets very basic things wrong on a routine basis, much more frequently than the average human, not to mention a SME.

It is useful to summarize things and to help draft emails, code, etc. It is horrible when it comes to medical items, philosophy, religion, etc. That isn't going to change, because that is a limitation of LLM's.

The issue is that most existing written and spoken material in existence has already been fed (plagiarized) into them. The only thing they can do is adjust weights at this point until there is another sort of invention. That isn't coming soon.

This is just like the dot com bubble. LLM's will continue to be used, but AI and adjacent companies were overbought a long time ago.
 
I think we are at the USENET and dial-up internet stage and trying to guess what it will be in the future.

At that point I remember some talking about watching videos online which seemed crazy since it took 5 minutes to download a still image of a naked lady.
I never would have dreamed of getting my TV through it. And, even more, if I had dreamed of getting my TV through it, I never would have dreamed that it would be more of a PITA than channel flipping on basic cable was. It is improved in some ways, and it is worse in others.
AI will likely be the same, we just don't yet know what will be worse and better.
 
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steross said:
I think we are at the USENET and dial-up internet stage and trying to guess what it will be in the future.

At that point I remember some talking about watching videos online which seemed crazy since it took 5 minutes to download a still image of a naked lady.
I never would have dreamed of getting my TV through it. And, even more, if I had dreamed of getting my TV through it, I never would have dreamed that it would be more of a PITA than channel flipping on basic cable was. It is improved in some ways, and it is worse in others.
AI will likely be the same, we just don't yet know what will be worse and better.
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That is a fair analogy. With dial-up internet we got excited when speeds increased past 56Kbps. Just 20 years ago, the average Internet speed in many metro areas was barely 1Mbps. Now most households have access to over 2000x that speed.
AI will be similar, but I think growth in the power and usage will be even exponentially larger. The fact that we already have AI writing new AI, and AI “teaching itself”, is mind-boggling to old people like myself.

As it relates to this thread, some companies offering AI product will fail, just like dot-com bust. But other larger companies with more robust products will grow or be created.

There will be a new “FANG” in 20 years led by whoever utilizes, markets, or sells AI best.
 
Bowers3 said:
Yep. However, I think when this bubble bursts it may end up being a good thing. More of a correction. This time it isn't banks holding the hot potato, it's huge investment companies. They'll lose their ass and good riddance I say. Plus I'm newly married and would like to be able to afford a home....
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I’m in Idaho and golfed at this beautiful mountain course surrounded by huge rustic homes. In the clubhouse bathroom I was talking with a guy and he is a builder and said he built a lot of them and they sold for $4-500k a few years ago and you can’t get in one for under $2 million now.
Doesn’t seem sustainable to me but what do I know.

IMG_1064.jpeg
 
Im looking at a new home purchase and the market in my little town seems inflated to me but I expected that because of everything right now. Figure Ill get more for my place now than what I would have dreamed of 5 years ago do it is what it is.

I was traveling in Nebraska earlier this week and spent a couple of nights in Columbus. Because of targeted adversity I saw some ads for homes in that area and OMG. If you are paying under 300K there you are looking at garbage or serious renovation before you move in. Anything in the 250-300K range where I live is probably 400-500K there. And its rural Nebraska so Im guessing people don't make California wages there. I was talking to a customer and the subject came up and I guess its a local phenomenon. Where the town is located the only real area for new homebuilding is on the north side of town where farmland is and the people who own that are old money who won't sell for any price. So the price of existing homes just keeps going up because there aren't any new home builds that won't cost a fortune.

I agree-thats just one local example but you cant continually expect to pay 15% more for housing when wages are going up 3%. At some point everyone gets priced out of the market. Well except for private equity and then they can charge FU money for rent.
 
cowboyinexile said:
Im looking at a new home purchase and the market in my little town seems inflated to me but I expected that because of everything right now. Figure Ill get more for my place now than what I would have dreamed of 5 years ago do it is what it is.

I was traveling in Nebraska earlier this week and spent a couple of nights in Columbus. Because of targeted adversity I saw some ads for homes in that area and OMG. If you are paying under 300K there you are looking at garbage or serious renovation before you move in. Anything in the 250-300K range where I live is probably 400-500K there. And its rural Nebraska so Im guessing people don't make California wages there. I was talking to a customer and the subject came up and I guess its a local phenomenon. Where the town is located the only real area for new homebuilding is on the north side of town where farmland is and the people who own that are old money who won't sell for any price. So the price of existing homes just keeps going up because there aren't any new home builds that won't cost a fortune.

I agree-thats just one local example but you cant continually expect to pay 15% more for housing when wages are going up 3%. At some point everyone gets priced out of the market. Well except for private equity and then they can charge FU money for rent.
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And with all the headlines over CPI data coming in under expectations, PPI accelerated so those new homes ain't gettin' cheaper. The Fed cannot cave to the political pressure and has to keep rates as they are. Random thought.
 
Bowers3 said:
And with all the headlines over CPI data coming in under expectations, PPI accelerated so those new homes ain't gettin' cheaper. The Fed cannot cave to the political pressure and has to keep rates as they are. Random thought.
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read this morning they are signaling they are going to drop the rate.
 
steross said:
I’m in Idaho and golfed at this beautiful mountain course surrounded by huge rustic homes. In the clubhouse bathroom I was talking with a guy and he is a builder and said he built a lot of them and they sold for $4-500k a few years ago and you can’t get in one for under $2 million now.
Doesn’t seem sustainable to me but what do I know.

View attachment 13580
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It's not sustainable. But for everyone looking at this like 2008, it's just different this time because of who is going to take the loss.
The biggest bag-holders will be taxpayers, because the government guarantees/insures the mortgages that back the MBS it issues, so that holders of MBS have essentially a government-guaranteed investment. This is one of the biggest changes coming out of the financial crisis.
The second biggest bag-holders are investors that buy “private label” MBS where lenders securitize non-qualifying mortgages and sell these MBS to investors such as bond funds.

Banks are mostly off the hook. They still hold some mortgages, but the total is only a small portion of all mortgages.
 
Bowers3 said:
It's not sustainable. But for everyone looking at this like 2008, it's just different this time because of who is going to take the loss.
The biggest bag-holders will be taxpayers, because the government guarantees/insures the mortgages that back the MBS it issues, so that holders of MBS have essentially a government-guaranteed investment. This is one of the biggest changes coming out of the financial crisis.
The second biggest bag-holders are investors that buy “private label” MBS where lenders securitize non-qualifying mortgages and sell these MBS to investors such as bond funds.

Banks are mostly off the hook. They still hold some mortgages, but the total is only a small portion of all mortgages.
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You mean an industry unloaded its risk onto the taxpayer? Shocking.
 
Bowers3 said:
It's not sustainable. But for everyone looking at this like 2008, it's just different this time because of who is going to take the loss.
The biggest bag-holders will be taxpayers, because the government guarantees/insures the mortgages that back the MBS it issues, so that holders of MBS have essentially a government-guaranteed investment. This is one of the biggest changes coming out of the financial crisis.
The second biggest bag-holders are investors that buy “private label” MBS where lenders securitize non-qualifying mortgages and sell these MBS to investors such as bond funds.

Banks are mostly off the hook. They still hold some mortgages, but the total is only a small portion of all mortgages.
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So buy gold?

I feel like we are going to have an inflationary superstorm in the next decade.
 
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