The Steross Market and Investing Thread
- Thread starter jobob85
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PJ-OSU
New member
CFA is taking over the country
And I'm helping
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Target breaks silence, cuts sales projections after sales nosedive 28% with Trump tariffs and DEI backlash
Target cut its full-sales outlook today, as executives blamed customer uncertainty about the tariffs for weaker spending.The decision to cut the full-sales outlook comes after the company missed first-quarter revenue estimates, and fell nearly 3% compared to the period a year earlier. Transactions in Target stores across the country have reportedly dipped by 2.4%. In addition to this, the average amount customers spent during their shopping trip decreased by 4.1%.
The retail giant, which will remain open on Memorial Day, also cited customer backlash to its rollback of key diversity, equity and inclusion efforts as part of the reason for its weak quarter.
The quarter highlights the broader issue of Target struggling to return to growth and regain its reputation. According to CNBC, shares plunged more than 37% in the last year.
CEO Brian Cornell spoke to reporters, blaming many of the retailer's problems on the economy, but admitting that Target is committed to doing better.
“We faced several additional headwinds this quarter, including five consecutive months of declining consumer confidence, uncertainty regarding the impact of potential tariffs, and the reaction to the updates we shared on [DEI] in January,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said on a call with analysts Wednesday.
He said that of the 35 merchandise categories that Target tracks internally, the company gained or held market share in only 15. This reflects sales that it is losing to retail competitors.
"We're not happy with that," Cornell said. "We've got to be growing [market] share in 60, 70, 80% of those categories. That's our focus over the balance of the year, and we're going to do that by making sure we provide a great shopping environment."
Some of these areas, like home decor, have seen a major slump as shoppers become more selective and cautious about spending. Consumers are guarding their pennies as they await the looming threat of Trump’s tariffs.
The tariffs come at an already challenging time, adding an extra level of pressure for the company.
Target has also found itself at the forefront of the retail boycotts, after rolling back major parts of its diversity, equity and inclusion program. Pressure from activists including the Rev. Al Sharpton has resulted in a poor online reputation.
The official Target boycott began on February 1, 2025, to coincide with Black History Month, and was led by Black community leaders. Another 40-day boycott which took place during Lent, was also led by Black church leaders, starting on March 5 and ending on April 17
The bond auction today…..yikes.
The fiscal-irresponsibility cracks are starting to widen and no one wants US gov debt. Yields spiked. Debt gets more expensive. Equities collapse. Domino effect.
And I have no faith that they’ll raise taxes and cut spending. The children in Washington only want to do what their side wants to do and nothing else.
Might get wild.
The fiscal-irresponsibility cracks are starting to widen and no one wants US gov debt. Yields spiked. Debt gets more expensive. Equities collapse. Domino effect.
And I have no faith that they’ll raise taxes and cut spending. The children in Washington only want to do what their side wants to do and nothing else.
Might get wild.
You are getting ready to see my narcistic side.
This is all happening to f#)) up my impending retirement. Yes, it is all about me.
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Ray Dalio says to fear the bond market as deficit becomes critical
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio on Thursday sounded another alarm on soaring U.S. debt and deficits, saying it should make investors fearful of the government bond market.
"I think we should be afraid of the bond market," Dalio said at an event for the Paley Media Council in New York. "It's like ... I'm a doctor, and I'm looking at the patient, and I've said, you're having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and I can't tell you the exact time. I would say that if we're really looking over the next three years, to give or take a year or two, that we're in that type of a critical, critical situation."
The founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, has warned about the ballooning U.S. deficit for years. Recently, investors have begun demanding lower prices to buy the bonds that cover the government's massive budget deficits, pushing up yields on the debt. Rising worries about the fiscal situation last week triggered a high-profile credit rating downgrade from Moody's.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury yield on Thursday traded at levels not seen since 2023, around 5.14%.
Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling, pushing the national debt past the $36 trillion mark. In 2024, the government spent more on interest payments than any other outlay other than Social Security, defense and health care.
"We will have a deficit of about 6.5% of GDP — that that is more than the market can bear," Dalio said.
Dalio said he's not hopeful politicians would be able to reconcile their differences and lessen the country's debt load. In a party-line vote early Thursday, House members approved legislation that lowers taxes and adds military spending. The bill — which now goes to the Senate — could increase the U.S. government's debt by trillions and widen the deficit at a time when fears of a flare-up in inflation due higher tariffs are already weighing on bond prices and boosting yields.
"I'm not optimistic. I have to be realistic," Dalio said. "I think it's the essence of the challenge of our country that anything related to bipartisanship and getting over political hurdles ... essentially means 'give me more,' which leads to these deficits."
jobob85
Bent Member
Reminds me of the old meme where the guy is looking at his portfolio go throught the roof and decides to tell his boss off and quit. By the time he gets back to his desk to clean it out he is broke.
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jobob85
Bent Member
Hell, just freeze spending for the next three or four years.
Welcome to the dark side!!!
I have maintained that government spending is the biggest risk! It could absolutely cause a recession. Consumer and labor market still fine. We’ll see.
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Reporter: “Wall Street analysts have coined a new term called the TACO trade. They’re saying ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ on tariff threats…”
Trump: “I kick out?”
Reporter: “Chicken out.”
www.threads.com
Trump appears to be hurt after learning about the acronym TACO, meaning "Trump Always Chickens Out"
"Now, when I make a deal with them, they'll say, 'Oh, he was chicken, he was chicken,' That's so unbelievable"
www.threads.com
Trump: “I kick out?”
Reporter: “Chicken out.”
Vince D. Monroy (@vincedmonroy) on Threads
Reporter: “Wall Street analysts have coined a new term called the TACO trade. They’re saying ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ on tariff threats…” Trump: “I kick out?” Reporter: “Chicken out.”
www.threads.com
Trump appears to be hurt after learning about the acronym TACO, meaning "Trump Always Chickens Out"
"Now, when I make a deal with them, they'll say, 'Oh, he was chicken, he was chicken,' That's so unbelievable"
FactPost (@factpostnews) on Threads
Trump appears to be hurt after learning about the acronym TACO, meaning "Trump Always Chickens Out" "Now, when I make a deal with them, they'll say, 'Oh, he was chicken, he was chicken,' That's so unbelievable"
www.threads.com
Polds4OSU
Marshall
US growth likely to slow to 1.6% this year, hobbled by Trump's trade wars, OECD says
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.6% this year from 2.8% last year as President Donald Trump’s erratic trade wars disrupt global commerce, drive up costs and leave businesses and consumers paralyzed by uncertainty.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast Tuesday that the U.S. economy — the world's largest — will slow further to just 1.5% in 2026. Trump’s policies have raised average U.S. tariff rates from around 2.5% when he returned to the White House to 15.4%, highest since 1938, according to the OECD. Tariffs raise costs for consumers and American manufacturers that rely on imported raw materials and components.
World economic growth will slow to just 2.9% this year and stay there in 2026, according to the OECD's forecast. It marks a substantial deceleration from growth of 3.3% global growth last year and 3.4% in 2023.
I don't know who the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is, but the Atlanta Fed is predicting a 4.6% increase(!) in GDP for Q2.
Polds4OSU
Marshall
Atlanta Fesd also predicted a -2.8% for Qtr 1 under Trump as well
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
Yeah month to month GDP is all wack because of tariffs. Last month GDP went negative because businesses front ran tariffs, imports were way higher than exports, thus we get negative GDP. Now we're seeing what happens when everyone stocked up on imports all at once.