The Steross Market and Investing Thread
- Thread starter jobob85
- Start date
‘Bout damned time!
Figured I better pull my namesake thread out of the dying thread pile.
So, what's everyone's feels for the market right now???? I have been fairly bullish and thinking that this is seasonal weakness in a uptrend so have been buying. But, this week has me a little concerned with my thesis.
After the big up day on Oct 6th bouncing off an area of support (blue line) I started buying figuring seasonal weakness typically ends in Oct and that was a fairly committed day and it filled the little gap at the beginning of June. Now, we have turned back at the red line which is somewhat near a neckline of a shabby looking head a shoulders top. Not too surprising that has occurred but if we go back below 4200 then this is looking uglier than an @jobob85 and @CptnQuirk lovechild.
I still feel barring unforeseen disaster (Gaza war spreads) more likely than not we are getting through this relatively unscathed and not expecting some GFC like drop. Unemployment is low and and the consumer is holding up despite the rate increases which should allow the Fed easier fine tuning. Of course, now that I've said that, you can damn near bank on an economic catastrophe. Sorry.
C'mon smart people, tell me something.
So, what's everyone's feels for the market right now???? I have been fairly bullish and thinking that this is seasonal weakness in a uptrend so have been buying. But, this week has me a little concerned with my thesis.
After the big up day on Oct 6th bouncing off an area of support (blue line) I started buying figuring seasonal weakness typically ends in Oct and that was a fairly committed day and it filled the little gap at the beginning of June. Now, we have turned back at the red line which is somewhat near a neckline of a shabby looking head a shoulders top. Not too surprising that has occurred but if we go back below 4200 then this is looking uglier than an @jobob85 and @CptnQuirk lovechild.
I still feel barring unforeseen disaster (Gaza war spreads) more likely than not we are getting through this relatively unscathed and not expecting some GFC like drop. Unemployment is low and and the consumer is holding up despite the rate increases which should allow the Fed easier fine tuning. Of course, now that I've said that, you can damn near bank on an economic catastrophe. Sorry.
C'mon smart people, tell me something.
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
I read this guy about every day mainly for his take on the cattle and commodities markets. Definitely a macro look and consistent bearish as of late. Just one man’s opinion but here’s his Thursday take after the close.
Energy: Energy has traded both sides of unchanged. I recommend topping off fuel tanks and potentially go a step further to book fuel through the remainder of this year for cattle feeding and farm needs and for row crop farmers, out to spring planting. The spreads between gasoline and diesel fuel continue to favor diesel fuel. I anticipate this to continue. Stress exposes weakness and there is no shortage of stress being applied to all markets. The Middle East situation concerns me greatly as seemingly the Israeli leader isn't sheepish. OPEC continues to limit production with seemingly no thoughts of increasing. Note they probably cashed in on some of the gains with the big drop in crude prices last week. If so, they may not want to make further sales until it moves back above $90.00. In my opinion, if crude begins trading back above the $90.00 levels, it won't stop there.
Bonds: The PPI data today helps to suggest the Fed has a long way to go. Bonds plummeted today. Not only did they plummet, they could never catch a bid. No one wants them. No one wants US debt unless at a higher price. That is except the US citizens. They love debt as they are increasing personal debt at an alarming rate. Again, I think this goes back to spending habits yet to be broken. The more stubborn the consumer is towards shifting in discretionary spending, the more pressure I look for the Fed to apply. While food and energy are generally ignored in the decision making process of the Fed, it may be more difficult to do now, with energy higher and nothing on the horizon that suggests it should go down. The US is hellbent on electricity, further weakening the US fossil fuel energy sources, leaving us once again more dependent upon foreign oil, for which the US production was meant to shelter us from. Note this, in just one day, bond traders made a new high in a 5 day rally for which more than 50% was taken away today alone. That is some pretty big selling. Fasten your seatbelts, I think this is fixing to get rough.
Interesting. Kind of explains why the economy keeps growing and plugging along even though the markets aren’t. American consumer is doing well.
jobob85
Bent Member
Funny thing is @CptnQuirk is so easy I wouldn't even need flunitrazepam. I don't think many have this market figured out. It's a good news is bad news is I'm not sure. If the consumer and unemployment stay strong then the worry is another rate hike with the figuring that sooner or later it will put a full stop on the economy. I thought with all the debt (individual, coporate and government) these rate hikes would have had a bigger effect.
If the market can keep up the crabwalk with unemployment around 4% and growth at around 3% all that is left if for inflation to get in the 3% or less range....we escape the recession and have that extra soft landing setting up another bull run. How long before we know?? Who knows! If I could figure it out I would hit long term bonds and wait for the fed easisng. The way things are right now I would expect defence contractors to at least get a short term pop.
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
I jokingly suggested to someone on here recently to buy gold and ammunition. My son in law just told me that he had bought some stock in Ammo Inc a while back and its up around 35% in the last 10 days. Long story short.....I piss excellence!
Disclaimer: I don't know crap.
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
The American consumer WAS doing well.
Personal Saving Rate
Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to Jan 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org
The American consumer WAS doing well.
Personal Saving Rate
Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to Jan 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.fred.stlouisfed.org
I don't know if you can look at that and take anything away. Income is up something like 25% since before the pandemic as well. Job market is still tight. For NOW, it looks like recession is still a ways away.
jobob85
Bent Member
You left out canning supply companies and bunker building companies.
You left out canning supply companies and bunker building companies.
Like my boy Warren says, "Be greedy when others are fearful."
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
They are going to stop consuming because they are running out of money. It scares the hell out of me. We spent like drunken sailors when rates were low and the govt. was handing out money. Now those reserves are gone and I think it's just now starting to show up. Plus, I've already told you that I don't know crap.
jobob85
Bent Member
I am not scared about the money. Wages are up and if saving and spending were both up I would worry, but they are not. I am more worried about the future strain on federal assistance when a bunch of broke seniors roll through the system.
jobob85
Bent Member
Stay put when everyone is running for the exits. (hopefully you don't get roasted in the fire) The contrarian view works extremely well when there is a scare. My father in law bailed early on the market in 2008. It was a really great move except he was too scared to get back in. It has really hampered my mother in law after he passed. She has been back in the market since but, they missed on that big V correction. (no, not vigina you dirty pervert)
"Never underestimate the ability of the American consumer to spend."
GOGETUMPOKE
Ranger
They’ve certainly been underestimated by many so far. I hate to be a bear but I think the chickens are coming home to roost.
The Trusted 60-40 Investing Strategy Just Had Its Worst Year in Generations
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...ging-91b7589d?reflink=integratedwebview_share
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Enphase has been a monster of a stock the last 5 years. Currently down 20% on the day, dropped 14% after hours in sympathy with Solar Edge who just had a bad earnings. Topped out at 330 end of 2022 and now is sitting right at a hondo. Could be a good growth stock to get your hands on, but solar is currently in a slowdown. I believe they report earnings next week.
Masses are azzess
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