‘Bout damned time!Hello again hello.... Its good to say hello...
Funny thing is @CptnQuirk is so easy I wouldn't even need flunitrazepam. I don't think many have this market figured out. It's a good news is bad news is I'm not sure. If the consumer and unemployment stay strong then the worry is another rate hike with the figuring that sooner or later it will put a full stop on the economy. I thought with all the debt (individual, coporate and government) these rate hikes would have had a bigger effect.Figured I better pull my namesake thread out of the dying thread pile.
So, what's everyone's feels for the market right now???? I have been fairly bullish and thinking that this is seasonal weakness in a uptrend so have been buying. But, this week has me a little concerned with my thesis.
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After the big up day on Oct 6th bouncing off an area of support (blue line) I started buying figuring seasonal weakness typically ends in Oct and that was a fairly committed day and it filled the little gap at the beginning of June. Now, we have turned back at the red line which is somewhat near a neckline of a shabby looking head a shoulders top. Not too surprising that has occurred but if we go back below 4200 then this is looking uglier than an @jobob85 and @CptnQuirk lovechild.
I still feel barring unforeseen disaster (Gaza war spreads) more likely than not we are getting through this relatively unscathed and not expecting some GFC like drop. Unemployment is low and and the consumer is holding up despite the rate increases which should allow the Fed easier fine tuning. Of course, now that I've said that, you can damn near bank on an economic catastrophe. Sorry.
C'mon smart people, tell me something.
I jokingly suggested to someone on here recently to buy gold and ammunition. My son in law just told me that he had bought some stock in Ammo Inc a while back and its up around 35% in the last 10 days. Long story short.....I piss excellence!Funny thing is @CptnQuirk is so easy I wouldn't even need flunitrazepam. I don't think many have this market figured out. It's a good news is bad news is I'm not sure. If the consumer and unemployment stay strong then the worry is another rate hike with the figuring that sooner or later it will put a full stop on the economy. I thought with all the debt (individual, coporate and government) these rate hikes would have had a bigger effect.
If the market can keep up the crabwalk with unemployment around 4% and growth at around 3% all that is left if for inflation to get in the 3% or less range....we escape the recession and have that extra soft landing setting up another bull run. How long before we know?? Who knows! If I could figure it out I would hit long term bonds and wait for the fed easisng. The way things are right now I would expect defence contractors to at least get a short term pop.
The American consumer WAS doing well.Interesting. Kind of explains why the economy keeps growing and plugging along even though the markets aren’t. American consumer is doing well.
The American consumer WAS doing well.
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Personal Saving Rate
Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to Jan 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.fred.stlouisfed.org
You left out canning supply companies and bunker building companies.I jokingly suggested to someone on here recently to buy gold and ammunition. My son in law just told me that he had bought some stock in Ammo Inc a while back and its up around 35% in the last 10 days. Long story short.....I piss excellence!
Disclaimer: I don't know crap.
You left out canning supply companies and bunker building companies.![]()
They are going to stop consuming because they are running out of money. It scares the hell out of me. We spent like drunken sailors when rates were low and the govt. was handing out money. Now those reserves are gone and I think it's just now starting to show up. Plus, I've already told you that I don't know crap.I don't think that chart is much of a worry based on the savings rates of 2020 and 2021. Plus saving and consuming are on the opposite ends of spectrum
I am not scared about the money. Wages are up and if saving and spending were both up I would worry, but they are not. I am more worried about the future strain on federal assistance when a bunch of broke seniors roll through the system.They are going to stop consuming because they are running out of money. It scares the hell out of me. We spent like drunken sailors when rates were low and the govt. was handing out money. Now those reserves are gone and I think it's just now starting to show up. Plus, I've already told you that I don't know crap.
Stay put when everyone is running for the exits. (hopefully you don't get roasted in the fire) The contrarian view works extremely well when there is a scare. My father in law bailed early on the market in 2008. It was a really great move except he was too scared to get back in. It has really hampered my mother in law after he passed. She has been back in the market since but, they missed on that big V correction. (no, not vigina you dirty pervert)Like my boy Warren says, "Be greedy when others are fearful."
"Never underestimate the ability of the American consumer to spend."They are going to stop consuming because they are running out of money. It scares the hell out of me. We spent like drunken sailors when rates were low and the govt. was handing out money. Now those reserves are gone and I think it's just now starting to show up. Plus, I've already told you that I don't know crap.
They’ve certainly been underestimated by many so far. I hate to be a bear but I think the chickens are coming home to roost."Never underestimate the ability of the American consumer to spend."
Masses are azzessStay put when everyone is running for the exits. (hopefully you don't get roasted in the fire) The contrarian view works extremely well when there is a scare. My father in law bailed early on the market in 2008. It was a really great move except he was too scared to get back in. It has really hampered my mother in law after he passed. She has been back in the market since but, they missed on that big V correction. (no, not vigina you dirty pervert)