The Steross Market and Investing Thread

Be very careful with intel right now, this is probably not the bottom. Their 13th and 14th gen cpu's have a really high level of oxidation manufacturing issues, which will cause BSOD's, crashing and eventual failure. Based on several tech journalists and engineers that have looked into the issue, the error rate is estimated to be between 25 and 50% of all CPU's that pull over 65W for those two generations.

Intel has not acknowledged this issue, and are trying to blame this on a microcode issue, which existed, but is small and patchable. The oxidation issue is a manufacturing defect and cannot be addressed without replacing the processor with a new, non-defective one.

There is now a class action lawsuit going against them.

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Second massive price cut of the year announced by Wal Mart. First one had ~15,000 items to be cut, this one is 7,200​


Walmart set to slash prices on over 7,000 everyday items with massive savings on offer

Walmart is reducing prices across the store to appeal to customers looking for a deal.

CEO Doug McMillion said in the second quarter earnings call Thursday the company has slashed costs on 7,200 items from various categories. The purpose of the price cuts are to maintain "competitive price gaps" with rival retailers.


“As it relates to value, we’re lowering prices,” McMillion said.

The price cut is called a “rollback,” which is an in-house term used to describe a temporary reduction on certain items. It’s been a part of the Walmart pricing strategy for decades.

A large sector of Walmart’s sales are groceries, which are about 25 percent lower in cost than most traditional supermarkets, according to CNN. Other retailers are following suit with cost cutting, including Target and Walgreens, as they look to draw back customers.

Overall, Walmart had a better than expected second quarter, with an increase in US sales of 4.2 percent. Operating income also increased 8.5 percent, and US digital sales have skyrocketed 22 percent in the last quarter.


The increase is significant because it’s opposite of the current consumer habits seen at other major retailers like Disney and McDonalds. Because of high inflation customers have been less willing to spend money, leading to the train of meal deals that have been released from fast food chains.

McMillion said on the call: “We aren’t experiencing a weaker consumer overall. Customers from all income levels are looking for value and we have it.”

There appears to be relief when it comes to inflation, however, as the Consumer Price Index, a key metric in determining inflation, has dipped below 3 percent for the first time since 2021. Axios reported the new data will inform the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates and easing pressure on the economy.
 


You can only lie for so long. The economic reports that have been put out in the last couple of years have been a complete sham.
Fed to revise numbers down by up to a million. Couple that with prior revisions......

You and I have been through this. But this happens every year. Other big banks think the revision will only be 360,000. The revision in 2019 was 500,000. Even if it is a million. That's still growth. And here comes a long Donnyrant having nothing to do with anything yada yada yada.

Just got the news notification. 818,000.
 


You can only lie for so long. The economic reports that have been put out in the last couple of years have been a complete sham.
Fed to revise numbers down by up to a million. Couple that with prior revisions......
You and I have been through this. But this happens every year. Other big banks think the revision will only be 360,000. The revision in 2019 was 500,000. Even if it is a million. That's still growth. And here comes a long Donnyrant having nothing to do with anything yada yada yada.

Just got the news notification. 818,000.
This has been going on as long since at least 2008. Come out with positive job numbers, then revise them downwards month later when it is old news.
 
Here's the official numbers. Biggest chunk of the revision is in professional and business services.

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818 revision. Yeah I'm crazy guys.

No not at all. 2019 and 2009 were other big revisions. I only respond to your posts about it because you're acting like it's new or specific to this administration.

I'll be interested to hear Powell speak later. I'll bet we get some rate cuts in Q4 if not at the end of this quarter.
 
No not at all. 2019 and 2009 were other big revisions. I only respond to your posts about it because you're acting like it's new or specific to this administration.

I'll be interested to hear Powell speak later. I'll bet we get some rate cuts in Q4 if not at the end of this quarter.
Is Powell speaking today?
 
No not at all. 2019 and 2009 were other big revisions. I only respond to your posts about it because you're acting like it's new or specific to this administration.

I'll be interested to hear Powell speak later. I'll bet we get some rate cuts in Q4 if not at the end of this quarter.
I'm not acting like it's new.....it's been said and I have agreed that this started during the 08 crisis but not to this magnitude and not when they are counting gig/2nd jobs like they are. They also took the biggest move chopping hours to make wages look better. It's been done by the last 2 for sure and to an extent 3 admins.....but the magnitude of shenanigans with the reports is much greater now. It sets up a cut so depending on your view of how we get out of the funk thats a good thing. @steross mentioned a while back we could be looking at prolonged stagflation the way things are being handled and I'm almost to the point thats the best case. Neither of our candidates coming up in November have any tangible policy to change it.
 
I'm not acting like it's new.....it's been said and I have agreed that this started during the 08 crisis but not to this magnitude and not when they are counting gig/2nd jobs like they are. They also took the biggest move chopping hours to make wages look better. It's been done by the last 2 for sure and to an extent 3 admins.....but the magnitude of shenanigans with the reports is much greater now. It sets up a cut so depending on your view of how we get out of the funk thats a good thing. @steross mentioned a while back we could be looking at prolonged stagflation the way things are being handled and I'm almost to the point thats the best case. Neither of our candidates coming up in November have any tangible policy to change it.

I'll be expecting the same type of cynicism if we get Trump again. I remember you beating off to the economy during his last term even though the data was pretty similar.
 
I'll be expecting the same type of cynicism if we get Trump again. I remember you beating off to the economy during his last term even though the data was pretty similar.
I actually said we needed to raise rates while he was in office. The economy was much better then. No one had a global pandemic in their model in defense of the current admin.

If the reports are fictitious under a possible Trump term I will point it out.

An 818 revision isn't similar. For example you mentioned the 500K revision....2023 was 439.....that's comparable that's a 12.2% difference and still too large in both cases.....818 is 63.6% different. If this holds it will be the biggest revision since the 902 number Q1 of 09 which was a pretty crappy time. They are juking the stats.
 
I actually said we needed to raise rates while he was in office. The economy was much better then. No one had a global pandemic in their model in defense of the current admin.

That's a bingo.

If the reports are fictitious under a possible Trump term I will point it out.

An 818 revision isn't similar. For example you mentioned the 500K revision....2023 was 439.....that's comparable that's a 12.2% difference and still too large in both cases.....818 is 63.6% different. If this holds it will be the biggest revision since the 902 number Q1 of 09 which was a pretty crappy time. They are juking the stats.

The reports were just as "fictitious" under Trump as they are now. And they go back to like 1970, not 2008.

And yeah sorry, similar data as in this year's revision is equal to 174,000 jobs created per month and 2019's revision was equal to 178,000 created per month.
 
That's a bingo.



The reports were just as "fictitious" under Trump as they are now. And they go back to like 1970, not 2008.

And yeah sorry, similar data as in this year's revision is equal to 174,000 jobs created per month and 2019's revision was equal to 178,000 created per month.
So we have established and agree that revisions even selective ones aren't brand new. So lets say two people caught 3lb bass after being measured on a certified scale since we are talking fish stories here.........Dude 1 said his weighed 3.3 lbs initially....maybe he's a liar....maybe a bad scale.....maybe the fish took a big dump that didn't factor in. You are definetly gonna want to check his weights from now on and it looks bad but everybody tells fish stories since 1970. Dude 2 shows up and says mine weighed 4.9 pounds. No scale is that bad and no dump is that big. Everyone at the ramp knows dude 2 is liar. That's what we are dealing with here. The numbers are so bad or selectively calculated that it goes beyond the realm of a mistake. I don't care who wins that has to stop.

There has only been one revision of this size in history.....there is difference in those time periods as well....the one in 09 was at the beginning of a crisis when data isn't as good and in the face of massive layoffs this is 4 years post trigger they shouldn't miss that bad ever but certainly not now. Multiple job holders are higher than they have been since any chart I can find the longest being a FRED chart going back to 1995.....that has to be considered when talking about these reports. Adding jobs after millions were lost is different than adding jobs in a stable environment. You now this isn't the same.
 
So we have established and agree that revisions even selective ones aren't brand new. So lets say two people caught 3lb bass after being measured on a certified scale since we are talking fish stories here.........Dude 1 said his weighed 3.3 lbs initially....maybe he's a liar....maybe a bad scale.....maybe the fish took a big dump that didn't factor in. You are definetly gonna want to check his weights from now on and it looks bad but everybody tells fish stories since 1970. Dude 2 shows up and says mine weighed 4.9 pounds. No scale is that bad and no dump is that big. Everyone at the ramp knows dude 2 is liar. That's what we are dealing with here. The numbers are so bad or selectively calculated that it goes beyond the realm of a mistake. I don't care who wins that has to stop.

There has only been one revision of this size in history.....there is difference in those time periods as well....the one in 09 was at the beginning of a crisis when data isn't as good and in the face of massive layoffs this is 4 years post trigger they shouldn't miss that bad ever but certainly not now. Multiple job holders are higher than they have been since any chart I can find the longest being a FRED chart going back to 1995.....that has to be considered when talking about these reports. Adding jobs after millions were lost is different than adding jobs in a stable environment. You now this isn't the same.


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