Iraq had a population of 22 million in 1998 with a standing army of ~430k troops and no air force and no tanks or armor as the Gulf war by Bush 1 had destroyed the vast majority of it
There has not been an ongoing conflict that has weakened the Iranian military like Iraq faced after the 1st Gulf War
Iran currently has the 9th largest standing army on the planet with ~910k 610k active and 300+k reservist. The largest army of any Middle Eastern county
They have a Navy that has Destroyers, frigates, and 20+ submarines
They have an air force with ~500 aircraft
They have 2000+ ballistic missiles with range to hit all of Europe and most of Asia
They have ~1800 tanks
300 helicopters
~2500 mobile artillery units
~500 armored personnel carriers and troop fighting vehicles
They also have a population of 92 million people
They also control the shipping lanes of 25% of the entire Earth oil supply
This would be the largest country / military attacked by the US since Vietnam and they are bigger than Vietnam was
Fools errand to compare 1998 Iraq with 2025 Iran
The first thing they would do is shut down the strait of Hormuz and oil prices would go up 200-400% overnight
Iraq had the 4th largest army in the world during desert storm and they didn't even last a week.
Iran hasn't been through anything like Iraq was in desert storm but they have seen their military leadership go up in smoke the past week. Those would be greatly missed if we were to invade the country.
But I wasn't trying to debate how difficult invading would be. Im asking what are the odds this is more than a dog and pony show where we drop a couple of bombs, say mission accomplished, and tell Israel they got it from here?