PorcupinePoke
New member
The problem is they can’t just add teams without either getting the media partners to at least add them at the same payout or they will end up diluting the current payouts which is a no go. Media partners are the ones controlling this, not the conferences.
Partially true. Adding teams after a media deal is done does add new content that they then have to sell. That is how the B1G did it when they added Oregon and Washington. Adding them in at reduced shares mitigated it, but I don't think anyone in the B1G made less then. The B1G would have to do that again to add ACC schools.
The SEC on the other hand though has Pro Rata expansion clauses with ESPN. Now you need to work with your partners (ESPN) and keep them happy when you do that. The ACC added Stan/Cal/SMU against ESPN's wishes to try to take advantage of the contract. That all said, I don't think ESPN would have much issue with paying pro rata for adding major brands that increase the value of the overall content. Also, The SEC can add members at reduced shares. That effectively INCREASES payouts for existing members thanks to the overall pro rata pay bump (basically what the ACC did with Stan/Cal/SMU).
More likely is that the breakaway will end up happening around 2030. This is the best way to make more money for all as well as get the rules they want put into place.
This is definitely possible. We are building toward big changes. It is just (and will be) murky what those are. If there is a breakaway the most likely outcome is that it would include the Big 12 (or most of the Big 12 schools). There is just too much political muck that would be stirred up by trying to break only 40-ish teams away. Look at the crazy hub-bub that happened when just Stanford and Cal were initially left out of the new P4. The death of the ACC will make that look VERY tame. The B1G and SEC breaking away without 30+ existing/recent Power conference schools would be the political shit storm to end all shit storms.
So IMHO, the MINIMUM a breakaway could happen with would be 48 schools, but even that I consider very unlikely. I think 56-64 is the most likely with it maxing around 72. Probably a bell curve around the 60 mark. My best guess is that they try to do it with the lower side to begin with (48 or so) and then politics pushes it up. Though I don't like OSU's situation, I consider it VERY unlikely we would get left out in a breakaway scenario.
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