The Way Too Early 2023-2024 Line-Up Prediction Thread...(Plus Questions)

JAY45

JAY45

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(Note: Year in School Classification based on what the Roster will say, not necessary # of Years remaining due to Pandemic)

125: Troy Spratley, RS Fr. (4 Years Remaining, should have the weight on lock-down)
Back-Up: Zach Blankenship, RS Fr. (How does Spratley's addition impact Blankenship's Career?)
Future Contender: Jax Forrest (One can hope! It seems there are an abundance of lighter guys on the Roster & Committed)
Questions: Where is Trevor Mastrogiovanni? Does he factor at 133 at some point?

133: Daton Fix, RS Sr.
Back-Up: Reece Witcraft, RS Sr.? (Question around 125 or 133)
Future Contender: Cael Hughes, True Fr.? (Question around 133 or 141)
Questions: Does either Mastrogiovanni or Young end up here once Daton clears out?

141: Sammy Alvarez, RS Jr.? (Question around # of Years remaining)
Redshirt: Carter Young, Jr. (Does he cut to 133 after this year?)
Back-Up: Cutter Sheets, RS Fr. OR Thomas Caverlee RS Fr.?
Future Contender: Cael Hughes, True Fr.?

149: Jordan Williams, RS Fr.?
Back-Up: Daniel Manibog, RS Sr. OR Teague Travis, RS So. OR Cutter Sheets, RS Fr.?
Questions: Does Williams fit here or 157? Do they find a Portal addition for this weight?

157: Jordan Williams, RS Fr. OR Luke Mechler, RS So. OR Mirzo Khayitov, Jr.?
Future Contender: LaDarion Lockett (2025)
Questions: Does Williams fit here or 149? Can Khayitov make this cut? Do they find a Portal addition?

165: Izzak Olenjik, Sr.
Back-Up: Mirzo Khayitov, Jr. OR Blake Skidgel, RS So.

174: Dustin Plott, Sr. OR Travis Wittlake, RS Sr.?
Back-Up: Trevor Dopps, RS Fr. OR Benjamin Mower RS Fr.
Questions: Does Plott Redshirt? Does Wittlake make this cut?

184: Brayden Thompson True Fr. OR Travis Wittlake, RS Sr.
Back-Up: Kyle Haas, RS So.
Questions: Is Thompson capable of winning the weight outright? What is Haas' career trajectory at this point? Where does A.J. Heeg fit?

197: Luke Surber, Sr.
Back-Up: Kyle Haas, RS So.?
Future Contender: Jersey Robb, True Fr.

285: Christian Carroll, True Fr. OR Konner Doucet, RS Jr.
Questions: Is now the time for Carroll?
 
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This is my current prediction for 2023-24:

125. Spratley He has a chance to be really good IMO and is key to OSU's team rank.
133 Fix
141 Tagen Jamison. I think he can be an AA. Saw U Tube video of him with solid win against UNI guy in open tournament last year. The UNI guy, was pretty good, I think ranked in top 10 during part of season. Also beat ISU guy at Fargo in HS
149 Sammy Alvarez. Real wildcard here. At times looked great, but had problems making weight at Rutgers. Would not be shocked to see him at 157 and Williams at 149. My view is with either Alvarez or Williams, an upgrade from last year. I liked Voinovich but lost almost all his matches against top guys. Lost close, but always lost. I think Williams is better and Alvarez is much better.
157. Giant hole. Maybe Alvarez if he can't make 149. Maybe Williams if beaten out by Alvarez. Or if I had to pick, maybe Mirzo. Wrestled 165 at JC level, but was a small 165 pounder. Who knows what Mirzo can do with a year in OSU's room with focus on folkstyle.
165. Olenjik. Should be able to repeat as low AA. Will have better coaching and in room competition but tough weight class.
174 Plott. Two years in a row at 6th. Maybe can move up a bit. Some rumor that Whitlake goes at 174 and Plott redshirts. My guess is that Plott and Whitlake are pretty close as to how they might do, but don't really know.
184 Does Thompson start as true freshman? My guess is yes. Could do Whitlake again, or Haas.
197 Surber. You could argue was one win away from AA last year. Maybe can be low AA. I doubt Haas can beat Surber and take spot.
285 Same question as at 184, does your stud freshman start as true freshman. So Carroll or Doucet. From watching some US Open video of both Thompson and Carroll, I would argue Thompson looks much better. I think Carroll said had limited time to train before US open, so maybe that was it. But did not look that good against collage wrestlers (who were not top guys), while Thompson looked good against very solid collage guys.
 
Alvarez is a 141. Wrestling in U23s for Puerto Rico at 65kg which is 143 lbs.

Williams 149.

Still time for a transfer or something different at 157.
 
We have a difference of opinion. Easier to make weight in freestyle. 65kg is 143.3. Williams wrestled 65 kg at US open, I I think he is a 149 not 141. Alvarez got kicked off Rutgers for not making 141. My guess is OSU got him as 149 pounder as Carter was 141 pounder when they got Alvarez. Also, maybe part of reason Voinovich transferred was that Alvarez was better (and maybe Williams). Also, why did Jamison move to OSU unless he thought he could start at 141? As to Thompson not being big enough for 184, he wrestled 86 kg at U20 US Open, which is 189.6 pounds. So I think he is a 184 pounder, and will have to cut a bit to get there.
I hope you are right about 157. Who knows though, Mirzo may end up being a stud after a year in OSU wrestling room (I think they saw something in him to go after him)
 
From Flowrestling:

Sammy Alvarez is on the move, and it appears he has landed in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

The former Rutgers informed FloWrestling of his intentions to compete for Oklahoma State. While his weight class is uncertain, the junior transfer will likely slot in at 141 or 149 for the 2023-24 season. He is currently enrolled at OSU and taking classes this semester.

This is a significant move for John Smith as he continues to make a championship push. Oklahoma State's storied program has won 34 NCAA Championships, with the last title coming in 2006.

Alvarez qualified for the 2020 NCAA Championships at 133 pounds but the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 outbreak. He was 13-2 this season at 141 pounds following a 1-0 win against Bloomsburg’s Josh Mason during a dual on January 6, 2023.

The Garfield, New Jersey, native placed third at the prestigious Midlands Championships on December 29-30 with a 6-1 record. His lone loss at the tournament was a 3-2 semifinal setback to Missouri’s Josh Edmond.

From Heavyweight Nation:

Former Rutgers 141 pound wrestler Sammy Alvarez has transferred to Oklahoma State. He announced that he would be entering the transfer portal a little over a week ago.
It came out last night that Alvarez has transferred to Oklahoma State, the question remains as when will we see Alvarez compete again?
While at Rutgers his weight had consistently been an issue as he missed on numerous occasions. From 2020-22 he was at 133 pounds and would have been a serious contender to place and possibly even win a national title looking at the matches he had with Roman Bravo-Young.
This year at 141 he missed weight for the Rutgers vs Rider dual, after this his status with the team was uncertain until it came out that he was no longer with the team.
Now that he is at Oklahoma State the big question is where does he fit into the lineup. It seems like he will attempt to go 149 assuming that the cut to 141 was too much for him but with possibly a whole offseason before we see him back in action maybe even 157 pounds. Thats all just speculation at this point.
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MJM said:
We have a difference of opinion. Easier to make weight in freestyle. 65kg is 143.3. Williams wrestled 65 kg at US open, I I think he is a 149 not 141. Alvarez got kicked off Rutgers for not making 141. My guess is OSU got him as 149 pounder as Carter was 141 pounder when they got Alvarez. Also, maybe part of reason Voinovich transferred was that Alvarez was better (and maybe Williams). Also, why did Jamison move to OSU unless he thought he could start at 141? As to Thompson not being big enough for 184, he wrestled 86 kg at U20 US Open, which is 189.6 pounds. So I think he is a 184 pounder, and will have to cut a bit to get there.
I hope you are right about 157. Who knows though, Mirzo may end up being a stud after a year in OSU wrestling room (I think they saw something in him to go after him)
Click to expand...

I believe Voinovich left because we didn’t have enough scholarship money to go around for his little bro and the family needed to do a 2 for 1 deal to get both kids through school. Not because of incoming competition
 
OK. But to me Williams looked better than Voinovich and I think Alvarez is better than either. I liked Voinovich but he lost to anyone good he wrestled. Split with OU kid and lost to North Dakota State kid, neither of whom were really top tier. Best win was against Stanford kid at nationals. He was generally close, but has got to beat a lot of kids he is losing to to be an AA. I am not sure why Iowa wanted him but for fact had hole in lineup at 149 and maybe thought they could make him better. My basic view is OSU level wrestlers have had such intense training and top tier coaching in high school they don't get much better in collage beyond their redshirt or freshman year. So I think it is unlikely he gets much better.
 
Alvarez was brought in to be a 141. He and Williams will likely split those weights for this year. Alvarez only has one year of eligibility.

Carter Young will return after a redshirt and take back that 141 spot. Jamison could be something there or 149 if Williams moves up to 157... just depends what he happens in the room.
 
I'll be excited and optimistic until there's a reason not to be. Bring on some ass whippin!
 
I will stick with my prediction Jamison starts at 141 and Alvarez starts at 149. But I have no inside info so I could be wrong. Williams could be man at 149. 157 is wildcard. Really 125, 133, 165, and 197 seem set with Spratley, Fix, Olejnik, and Surber. Plott ( or maybe Whitlake with Plott redshirting) seem set for 174. 184 and 285 the question is do you start your top recruits (Thompson and Carroll) as freshman or redshirt them (which is normal) and go with last year's starters. My guess is freshman start (though one could start and the other be redshirted). If the freshmen start, I think you have 3 guys very likely to AA (133, 165, and 174) and 6 with a good shot at being an AA (every weight but 157).
 
Thompson isn't big enough to be 184.

I think you redshirt Carroll because there are 8 returning AAs in that weight. Let them clear out. Doucet could score a couple points in KC.
 
Agree about Carroll. Not sure that is way it plays out, but think you are correct. If Thompson goes 189 at US open and finishes second to kid from SDSU (who is a redshirt freshman slated for 184), I think he is big enough. Also, if you watched finals match between Berge (the kid from SDSU) and Thompson, had it been folkstyle rules Thompson would have won.
 
MJM said:
Agree about Carroll. Not sure that is way it plays out, but think you are correct. If Thompson goes 189 at US open and finishes second to kid from SDSU (who is a redshirt freshman slated for 184), I think he is big enough. Also, if you watched finals match between Berge (the kid from SDSU) and Thompson, had it been folkstyle rules Thompson would have won.
Click to expand...

I agree that he's good enough to be competitive at 184 but I think he would be low AA at 174.

184 is super deep this year too. Would be setting him up for disappointment.
 
OSU roster is out along with Intermat rankings. Whitlake is not on OSU roster and Haas is listed as 197 pounder. Having looked at OSU rosters in past years, certain trends are clear. While the weight class listed for a wrestler is often not correct, it wrestlers are almost always listed a a weight class below that which they will wrestle at (as if Smith want to motivate them to wrestle at a lower weight class). So if Haas is listed at 197, to me unlikely he can make 184 (also wrestled around 197 in freestyle this summer). So to me seems clear Thompson and Plott are 174/184 starters. Plott is wrestling 174 at U23 worlds so seem likely he is 174 pounder (even though Intermat ranks him 4th at 184). And given Thompson wrestled at 189 in US open, he seems likely to be 184 pounder.

Khayitov Mirzo is listed as a 157 pounder on OSU roster. So my opinion (worth zero) is wrestle off between Harper, Mirzo and Manibog. My money is on Mirzo.

285 I think Doucet and Carroll have wrestle off and winner starts

Alvarez is listed at 141, but I still think he is 149 and Jamison is 141 starter (with Alvarez and Williams wrestle off at 149).

So 125 Spratley, 133 Fix, 141 Jamison/Alvarez, 149 Alvarez/Williams, 157 Mirzo/Harper/Manibog, 165 Olejnik, 174 Plott/Thompson, 184 Plott/Thompson, 197 Surber, and 285 Doucet/Carroll. I do not see Haas beating Surber at 197 but it is not impossible.

For what it is worth, Plott is ranked 4th at 184 in Intermat rankings. They show Plott going up to 184 while Lewis (from VT) stats at 174. I saw Plott wrestle Lewis at nationals in Tulsa. Lewis is much bigger than Plott. Plott is average to slightly large at 174, Lewis is very big at 174. If Lewis goes up to 184, Plott would likely be ranked 3rd or 4th at 174.

Intermat has Brooks and Hidley going up to 197 (Brooks was a giant 184 pounder). So 197 gets tougher and 184 easier if they are right.

If Carroll starts, 7 new starters. If Alvarez starts over Williams, none of 7 new starters were on roster at beginning of last season.

So pretty clear a lot of change from last season.

OSU ranked 10th with only Fix, Plott and Olejnik ranked as AA.
 
125: Spratley
133: Fix
141: Alvarez OR Jamison
149: Williams
157: Harper OR Manibog
165: Olenjik
174: Thompson
184: Plott
197: Surber
285: Doucet
 
I agree on 125 and 133. I think Jamison at 141 and Alvarez at 149.
157, who knows. Mirzo is no longer listed on roster so I assume he left team. If Alvarez goes at 149, do they try Williams at 157 (or vice versa)? Austin Gomez has entered transfer portal. Needs to get medical hardship to get extra year. Placed 4th at 149. Could he go up and fill 157 spot? Also Teague Travis is now listed at 157. He was pretty good so can he make jump. Maybe Cutter Sheets?
Agree with 165. I know intermat and Wrestlestat has Plott at 184 and Thompson at 174. But Plott is wrestling U23 worlds for USA at 79 kg October 23 to 29. So he makes 174 October 29 and goes up to 184 on November 10 (OSU's first dual). I don't think so. Also Thompson went up from 79 kg in 2022 to 86 kg (which is 189), in 2023 world team trials, and now he goes down to 174? So based on that I think Plott at 174 and Thompson at 184.
Agree with 197. 285 I think odds are 50-50 whether we see Doucet or Carroll. And OSU may start with Doucet and Smith may switch to Carroll depending on how they do. OSU has key early test in Cliff Keen, so if Carroll is going to start best he he wrestles Cliff Keen. I think with portal, and finish last year I lean to OSU starting Carroll, but only a lean.
 
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