WH hints of military invasion of Venezuela

osuwhit said:
I’ve known two different Conoco families from Ponca (yep, pre merger old school days) that had to flee two different countries when there was a hostile government take over.

Venezuela and Indonesia. They were rushed to company planes and flown out before they could be harmed. I don’t see these companies being hunky dory about a return to a hostile environment in need of a compete infrastructure upgrade.
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Our employees in the mid 90s were flown in and taken w armed security and escort to a gated compound in Venezuela. For 3 month stints they were not allowed to leave the compound. They’d fly home for 2 weeks and then go back for 3 months.
 
osuwhit said:
This is what I was wondering. Who’s taking the risk?
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He’s already promised subsidies. You, the mark and I are carrying the risk. End of day our upside is squat unless we double down and invest in O&G/midstream/service/drillers that go in.

Meanwhile, if successful O&G companies that go in could in 10-20 yrs begin to show an roi on unrisked capex. Trump gets to keep raking in “PAC donations” and favorable contracts for family members.

Rinse and repeat.

Side note is that this will take billions upon billions and years. As the anonymous source said “who would go in.” Same applies to banks. These companies all have banking groups with defined risk tolerances and controls. O&G would be required to protect cash flow to ensure debt is paid. How do you even begin to layoff risk in this one? They would be required to hedge price at certain production levels. Those agreements have covenants specifically tied to hedging/risk. Fall out of compliance and you default. Default here depending on corporate structure and of course language and you literally risk default in other areas. Kinda like a big game of Jenga.

1) How do you even begin to model production curves in order to build total field output?

2) With the price of oil thru 2037 currently near or below $60/bbl who wants to sell future bbls at those prices?

These are just basics, so how would a bank group begin to structure tens of billions of dollars in debt that will be needed when in 4 or 8 yrs a future president (at this point it could be an R as likely as a D) w one social media post ends the whole thing.

Like 99% of what we live in today it’s just one man’s fantasy land w no connection to reality and most people know this.

But hey we’re shooting protestors, deporting brown people and not chopping weeners off school boys.
 
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Major U.S. oil executives expressed caution about President Donald Trump’s push for them to spend at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela, with the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. calling the nation currently “uninvestable.”

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The Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) on Threads

Major U.S. oil executives expressed caution about President Donald Trump’s push for them to spend at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela, with the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. calling the nation currently “uninvestable.”
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Polds4OSU said:
Major U.S. oil executives expressed caution about President Donald Trump’s push for them to spend at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela, with the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. calling the nation currently “uninvestable.”

www.threads.com

The Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) on Threads

Major U.S. oil executives expressed caution about President Donald Trump’s push for them to spend at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela, with the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. calling the nation currently “uninvestable.”
www.threads.com www.threads.com
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"Univestable" is right! It doesn't sound like Venezuela has become safe enough for American oil company execs or workers to dare be brave enough to go there. Will Trump end up deciding that 1000s of troops are needed on the ground? Who knows this early?

Security Alert Venezuela: January 10, 2026: Do Not Travel to Venezuela; Depart Immediately.
https://ve.usembassy.gov/security-a...o-not-travel-to-venezuela-depart-immediately/
 
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Trump and Rubio are doing such a great job running Venezuela that the U.S. is now warning Americans to leave Venezuela to escape armed militias.

And they want U.S. companies to go to Venezuela? No way companies will do that.

Trump’s Venezuela operation is a disaster.

US issues security alert for Americans in Venezuela to leave country | Fox News

Americans in Venezuela warned to leave immediately as armed militias reportedly set up roadblocks searching for U.S. citizens, according to new U.S. Embassy Caracas security alert.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
President Trump said that he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela after its top executive was skeptical about oil investment efforts in the country after the toppling of former President Nicolás Maduro.
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The Associated Press (AP) (@apnews) on Threads

President Trump said that he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela after its top executive was skeptical about oil investment efforts in the country after the toppling of former President Nicolás Maduro.
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RAND PAUL: If a country bombed our air defense missiles, captured & removed our president, & blockaded our country, would that be considered an act of war?

RUBIO: We just don't believe this operation comes anywhere close to the constitutional definition

PAUL: Of course it would be an act of war!

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Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

RAND PAUL: If a country bombed our air defense missiles, captured & removed our president, & blockaded our country, would that be considered an act of war? RUBIO: We just don't believe this operation comes anywhere close to the constitutional definition PAUL: Of course it would be an act of war!
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Rubio: We didn't remove an elected official. We removed someone who was not elected and was actually indicted.

Paul: Indicted under our laws. Look, Bolsonaro says that da Silva is not really the president of Brazil. Our president said Biden wasn't really the president…

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@robevac on Threads

Rubio: We didn't remove an elected official. We removed someone who was not elected and was actually indicted. Paul: Indicted under our laws. Look, Bolsonaro says that da Silva is not really the president of Brazil. Our president said Biden wasn't really the president… My head is spinning, I...
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SHAHEEN: It's been reported that the oil sold for $500 million and $300 million went to Venezuelan government. What happened to the other $200 million?

RUBIO: It's still sitting in the account is my understanding

SHAHEEN: The account in Qatar?

RUBIO: Yes


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Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

SHAHEEN: It's been reported that the oil sold for $500 million and $300 million went to Venezuelan government. What happened to the other $200 million? RUBIO: It's still sitting in the account is my understanding SHAHEEN: The account in Qatar? RUBIO: Yes
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Rubio: “I think all of those [oil] executives learned about this operation the same time everybody else did.”

Van Hollen: “Trump has said the opposite.”

Rubio: “No.”

Trump, on Jan. 4, said he spoke with oil executives “before and after” the operation against Venezuela.

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The Bulwark (@bulwarkonline) on Threads

Rubio: “I think all of those [oil] executives learned about this operation the same time everybody else did.” Van Hollen: “Trump has said the opposite.” Rubio: “No.” Trump, on Jan. 4, said he spoke with oil executives “before and after” the operation against Venezuela.
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RAND PAUL: What if a foreign country indicts our president for violating a foreign law -- should we extradite him or be okay if they come and get him by force?

RUBIO: We're always going to act in our national interest

PAUL: What I'm saying is our arguments are empty. It's a ruse. We do what we do because we have the force

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Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

RAND PAUL: What if a foreign country indicts our president for violating a foreign law -- should we extradite him or be okay if they come and get him by force? RUBIO: We're always going to act in our national interest PAUL: What I'm saying is our arguments are empty. It's a ruse. We do what we...
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SCHATZ: You testified the oil funds are being held in Qatar and then will move to a Treasury blocked account. What's the statutory authority for the administration relying on Qatar to hold the funds?

RUBIO: It's not our funds. It belongs to Venezuela

SCHATZ: What authority are you relying on to be in charge of the money?

RUBIO: They've agreed to this

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Barbara Sobel (@barbaraj.sobel) on Threads

SCHATZ: You testified the oil funds are being held in Qatar and then will move to a Treasury blocked account. What's the statutory authority for the administration relying on Qatar to hold the funds? RUBIO: It's not our funds. It belongs to Venezuela SCHATZ: What authority are you relying on...
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