The Steross Market and Investing Thread

I finally took a look at our retirement and investment accounts for the first time since the downturn in the market. Ugh. I hate to complain about money when there is a lot more going on in the world. Plus this is money I won’t be touching for a while.

But, damn! It hurt deep inside when I saw the totals.

Not like 2008/09, but I’m not sure when we see the bottom this time.
 

This is a long watch, but I found it insightful. Its premise is that yes thr economy is bad and yes, we are in a bubble, but it is not nessisarily bad for the reasons we might think it is bad.
 
Jerome Powell: “There is effectively ZERO net job creation in the private sector.”

US job growth in February has been revised down from to a total loss of -92,000 jobs to -133,000 jobs.

It's the largest loss since December 2020.

 
Jerome Powell: “There is effectively ZERO net job creation in the private sector.”

US job growth in February has been revised down from to a total loss of -92,000 jobs to -133,000 jobs.

It's the largest loss since December 2020.


But the labor force continued to shrink in March amid the crackdown on illegal immigration and a tightening up of some work-visa programs. In March, the labor force fell by another 396,000 workers.

Over the past five months, the labor force has plunged by 1.45 million people (six-month data not available because October is missing due to the government shutdown). The labor force is the supply of labor, composed of people who are working or actively looking for work. And this supply of labor has shrunk by 1.45 million in five months! This is huge

As nonfarm payrolls have grown only very slowly over the past six months, while the labor force has been shrinking rapidly, the total number of unemployed people has plunged by 542,000 over the past five months.

And so the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.26%, the lowest since June 2025 – from a historical perspective a tight labor market, but tight for the reason of a shrinking labor force (supply of labor), not strong job creation (demand for labor).
 
4th quarter growth rate revised down to 0.5%. I believe there's a word for zero growth + high inflation.

Yeah, WINNING!!!
 
4th quarter growth rate revised down to 0.5%. I believe there's a word for zero growth + high inflation.

Markets: Ah, so what?

This stuff is never as easy as you would think.



Nasdaq Logs Longest Winning Streak Since 2021 as Investors Look Beyond War​

S&P 500 stands 0.2% from a record hit in January​

 

Explain this to me like I don't know anything.

Also I think most people can see that home sales are dropping. I moved last fall and still follow stuff on Zillow because Im weird like that. Overall there seem to be more houses for sale that are sticking on the market and not selling. A couple that weren't in my range 6 months ago have dropped in price enough that they suddenly look more attractive. I have a former neighbor-moved in last May and decided they needed to be closer to family (older couple) so they moved back to Mankato. There are 3 houses on my block that sold a year ago and he told me that his place hadn't even had a showing in the month they had it on the market. Kinda crazy
 
Not sure that can change unless prices go down. And, not "Was $750,000, now $745,000" but real down like they did in 2009. They aren't rising anymore, but big deal.

Problem is too many people are sitting on 2-3% mortgages. with unemployment low, the real reason to move is because you want to, not because you have to. So, people are not willing to drop price for "want to."

Second problem is inflation in everything else. We are having a kitchen remodel and a master closet added. The remodel is now $5K more than I paid for the entire house in 1998. Every "variance" is a few grand. They found a leak in the roof and wanted $1000 for new flashing. The first roof I ever bought cost $1600.

We have prices so high most cannot afford a house and inflation so bad that people can't lower price. So, nobody is doing anything it seems.

Screenshot 2026-04-24 at 4.05.48 PM.png
 
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We have been considering buying a house in Vegas.
This is the stuff I see that drives me nuts. Oooh, I wasn't interested at $517K, but $515K sounds very inticing! So dumb.


Screenshot 2026-04-24 at 4.18.51 PM.png

That said, I am starting to see a few more $20-40K cuts so maybe the market is starting to hurt a bit. Not to be morbid but these are 55 and older retirement homes. Which often means mom died and the kids need to get it sold so maybe it will start to drop a bit.
 
Explain this to me like I don't know anything.

Also I think most people can see that home sales are dropping. I moved last fall and still follow stuff on Zillow because Im weird like that. Overall there seem to be more houses for sale that are sticking on the market and not selling. A couple that weren't in my range 6 months ago have dropped in price enough that they suddenly look more attractive. I have a former neighbor-moved in last May and decided they needed to be closer to family (older couple) so they moved back to Mankato. There are 3 houses on my block that sold a year ago and he told me that his place hadn't even had a showing in the month they had it on the market. Kinda crazy
My realtor called me a month ago and asked if he could list me as a reference for a new job
 
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