Our star

In conclusion, the analysis of the 1996–2016 worldwide earthquake catalogue shows a significant correlation with the measured proton density in the same period. Such correlation is described by a larger probability for earthquakes to occur during time windows 24 h long just after a peak period (meant as a period spent over a certain threshold) in proton density due to solar activity. This kind of correlation between worldwide seismicity and solar activity has been checked also with other variables linked to solar activity, including proton velocity, dynamical pressure of protons, proton flux, and proton density. However, a significant correlation can be only observed with proton flux, besides proton density. The correlation is anyway much sharper using simple proton density, so evidencing that this is the really influent variable to determine correlation with earthquake occurrence. This correlation is shown to be statistically highly significant. The high significance of the observed correlation is also strengthened by the observation that, increasing the threshold magnitude of the earthquake catalogue, the correlation peak becomes progressively larger. The application of a further appropriate methodology of testing, using concepts similar to the Molchan diagram34,35, also confirms the statistical significance of the observed correlation. The correlation between large earthquakes worldwide and proton density modulated by solar activity then appears to be strongly evident and significant.


 
Because of these effects, volcanoes also share a higher than statistic chance of erupting during this kind of space weather.

Particularly those volcanoes on fault lines.
 
So when we discuss climate change, why is the giant star in the room overlooked?


As if there’s anything we could possibly alter or change on the planet to create an effect on the star.

Until this year, no one thought of the sun and controlling it. Just controlling us.

Here’s the plan.



Space umbrellas!!!



Only problem is the culprits that are causing our problems are so many and so fast, we’ve haven’t caught enough to study them thoroughly. Billions spent, I believe they have caught a capture on tape. But then the particle borrows energy from the future and escapes it’s capture thereby repaying the borrowed energy to the past.


Sounds so clear.


So smarter scientists are talking about a charged nano cloud of magnetic nano bots that when on, come closer in density, blocking out some of the faster waves.

That could have promise or destroy the world.

Interesting times.

Didn’t see this one coming except in hindsight, it’s obvious the sun would be one of our biggest threats.
 
Here’s a thought. If volcanos actually cool the earth with eruptions and underwater volcanoes heat the earth with their eruptions, we need to nuke some land volcanoes!!
 
So when we discuss climate change, why is the giant star in the room overlooked?


As if there’s anything we could possibly alter or change on the planet to create an effect on the star.

Until this year, no one thought of the sun and controlling it. Just controlling us.

Here’s the plan.



Space umbrellas!!!



Only problem is the culprits that are causing our problems are so many and so fast, we’ve haven’t caught enough to study them thoroughly. Billions spent, I believe they have caught a capture on tape. But then the particle borrows energy from the future and escapes it’s capture thereby repaying the borrowed energy to the past.


Sounds so clear.


So smarter scientists are talking about a charged nano cloud of magnetic nano bots that when on, come closer in density, blocking out some of the faster waves.

That could have promise or destroy the world.

Interesting times.

Didn’t see this one coming except in hindsight, it’s obvious the sun would be one of our biggest threats.
1692806316157.jpeg
 

This solar cycle, the sun's activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted​

This solar cycle, the sun's activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted
A coronal mass ejection on the solar surface. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SDO

What do you feel when you see the aurora?

Otherwise known as the northern or southern lights, an aurora is light emitted by upper atmospheric particles as they interact with energized ones from the magnetosphere.

It's an awe-inspiring and otherworldly event that those living at high latitudes can experience often. In Cree and Ojibwe teachings, the northern lights are ancestral spirits who remain and communicate from the sky.

To scientists, the aurora is an infinitely complex amalgamation of ionosphericdynamics, a manifestation of Earth's intrinsic connection to the sun. To industry, it's a risk factor.

The Starlink destruction event​

In February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink internet satellites into a low-Earth orbit (LEO). This was the 36th Starlink launch that SpaceX had carried out, and one that they anticipated to go off without a hitch, just like the 35 before.

On launch day, a coronal mass ejection—a large burst of plasma expelled from the sun—struck Earth. It caused a geomagnetic storm in the atmosphere between around 100 and 500 kilometers in altitude, the target range for Starlink.

This solar cycle, the sun's activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted
The aurora borealis seen above the Saskatoon SuperDARN space weather radar. Credit: A. Reimer

This event injected an immense amount of electromagnetic energy straight into Earth's upper atmosphere. It produced beautiful auroral displays, but the energy also increased the density of the air. A higher air density typically isn't a big deal for LEO satellites, because it's already extremely low at usual operational altitudes (upwards of 400 kilometers).

Starlink, however, was initially launched into an altitude of 210 kilometers. That's much closer to Earth, with an exponentially higher air density. Thirty-eight out of those 49 initial launch satellites were subsequently lost due to atmospheric drag from the dense atmosphere, pulling them back to Earth.

Surprising solar cycle​

The sun undergoes a cycle—an 11-year one, to be exact—from which its activity increases and decreases periodically. At the peak of a cycle, we see more sunspots on the solar surface, more radiation emitted, and more solar flares. Geomagnetic storms like the one that caused the Starlink destruction event are a relatively common occurrence, especially when the sun reaches the peak of its 11-year cycle of strengthening and weakening activity.

In the previous cycle, which ended in 2019 (the 24th tracked cycle since 1755), there were 927 storms classed as moderate or weak alone—an average of one every five or so days.

We're currently four years into solar cycle 25, but this one has already proven surprising. The maximum activity of the 25th cycle was predicted to occur in 2025, but solar activity has already exceeded that. This means we've been seeing more geomagnetic storms, more auroral displays (and at lower latitudes than usual) and, potentially, more hazardous conditions for LEO satellites.






Starlink satellites burning up in the atmosphere over Puerto Rico, Feb. 7, 2022.

Space weather: The unseen force of nature​

If geomagnetic storms are so common, why don't they cause more issues? The reality is that they do, but the consequences are much less obvious than satellites burning up in the atmosphere.

When space weather energy enters Earth's upper atmosphere, for example, the ionospheric composition changes in addition to the air getting denser. High-frequency, or "shortwave," radio communication depends on a predictable ionosphere to broadcast long distances.

Geomagnetic storms that affect ionospheric composition can cause radio blackouts, such as a disruption in North America on Aug. 7. Even minor storms can cause the degradation of radio signals used in military and maritime systems, aviation communication or ham radio.

Extreme storms can cause radio blackouts lasting hours, and for an entire side of the globe. Storms that big can also cause more discernible problems, such as the nine-hour electricity outage experienced by Hydro-Québec in 1989.

Space weather warning systems

This solar cycle, the sun's activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted
Solar activity as the number of sunspots visible on the solar surface. The number of sunspots seen is already considerably higher than what is expected from the solar maximum, two years ahead of schedule. Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

It's not all doom and disintegrating rockets, however. We can detect when a solar flare leaves the surface of the sun and predict roughly when it will affect the Earth, giving forewarning to certain types of storms and chances to see the aurora.

For many storms however, there is very little or no predictive capability because it depends on how the Earth's magnetic field interacts with the solar wind, which is harder to see.

Nowcasting—using real-time data to understand conditions as they occur—is one of our best tools. With instruments such as ground-based radar and magnetometers on satellites, we can estimate the electromagnetic space weather energy entering the atmosphere almost instantaneously.

As for why SpaceX lost satellites in February 2022 during a minor geomagnetic storm, that was just a matter of timing. The loss of the satellites, however, is a stunning reminder of the power of the universe we live in.



 
One year ago

The Bastille Day Event​

July 13, 2022 / Dr.Tony Phillips
July 14, 2022: You know a solar flare is strong when even the Voyager spacecraft feel it. Twenty-two years ago today (July 14, 2000) the sun exploded with so much force, it sent shockwaves to the edge of the solar system.

Earth was on the doorstep of the blast, nicknamed the “Bastille Day Event” because it happened on the national day of France. Subatomic particles accelerated by the flare peppered satellites and penetrated deep into Earth’s atmosphere. Radiation sensors on Earth’s surface registered a rare GLE–a “ground-level event.”

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Above: SOHO images of the Bastille Day solar flare (left) and CME (right). The onset of snow in the images is a result of energetic protons hitting the spacecraft
“People flying in commercial jets at high latitudes would have received double their usual radiation dose,” says Clive Dyer of the University of Surrey Space Centre in Guildford UK, who studies extreme space weather. “It was quite an energetic event–one of the strongest of the past 20 years.”

A day later the CME arrived. Impact on July 15th sparked an extreme (Kp=9) geomagnetic storm. The sun had just set on the east coast of North America when the first auroras appeared.

“I was out in the yard doing chores and saw bright red auroras straight overhead,” recalls Uwe Heine of Caswell County, North Carolina. “I called over to our neighbor, Carrie, who was also outside. I told her those were not sunset colors. It was an aurora, and super rare to see this far south!”

bd_auroras-1.jpg
Above: Auroras on July 15, 2000, photographed by (left) Grant Privett of Farnborough UK and (right) NASA’s IMAGE spacecraft.
In New York, the sky exploded with light, recalls Lou Michael Moure. “I was living on Long Island at the time. A family member came running into my room, begging me to come outside to see ‘the sky on fire.’ The sky truly looked as if it was ablaze. Hues of white and green eventually gave way to reds that blanketed the heavens from horizon to horizon.”

By the time the storm was over on July 16th, auroras had been sighted as far south as Texas, Florida and Mexico.

A few other storms of the Space Age have have been equally strong, but the Bastille Day Event is special to researchers. It was the first major solar storm after the launch of SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Data from the revolutionary young satellite taught researchers a lot, very quickly, about the physics of extreme flares.

Above: A modern MHD computer simulation of the Bastille Day explosion. Credit: Tibor Török et al., The Astrophysical Journal, 856:75 (22pp), 2018 March 20.
Tibor Török of Predictive Science, Inc., is one of many researchers still studying the Bastille Event decades later. “The event took place close to disk center, so we had a great view of the action,” he says. Török recently applied a modern magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computer model to some of the data, and found that 1033 ergs of magnetic energy were released in the explosion–about the same as a thousand billion WWII atomic bombs.

No wonder the Voyagers felt it.

It took the Bastille Day CME months to reach the distant spacecraft. Voyager 2 felt it 180 days later, Voyager 1 took 245 days. Being near the edge of the solar system, both spacecraft were naturally bathed in high levels of cosmic rays. The CME swept aside that ambient radiation, creating a temporary reduction called a “Forbush Decrease.” Conditions returned to normal 3 to 4 months later and, finally, the storm was over.

Could another Bastille Day Event be in the offing? Solar Cycle 25 is ramping up, with a new Solar Max expected in 2025. Stay tuned.

more aurora photos: from Ronnie Sherrill of Troutman, North Carolina
 
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