Ukraine. Ukraine. Ukraine.
- Thread starter Llcoolw
- Start date
Don’t be stupid Donny…..oh wait…I forgot whom I’m dealing with.
I don’t know. You don’t know. Nobody knows. But if it takes too long and costs us and our allies more than we’re willing to continue paying for defending democracy and Ukraine’s independence, we can take the MAGA/Donny route and sacrifice Ukraine then.
Between making an offer we all know Putin won’t take and immediately calling it a day, cutting bait, handing Ukraine over and running away when he doesn’t (full Donny)....
AND
continuing to support Ukraine/hurt Russia for an indeterminate period enough to get Russia to take the deal (continue proxy war)…..I know which one I’m picking.
I also know that Trump isn’t going to do either one (he’s gonna be Putin’s little lap dog) so this whole @#$&ing full Donny merry-go-round was $&@#ing pointless.
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mugatu
Ranger
If Putin thinks there's a light at the end of the tunnel (NATO bacling out of support for Ukraine) without him having to give up anything he wants he'll fight until he gets through the tunnel. If he looks and sees nothing but a dark tunnel, he's more likely to be willing to give in on some points when it comes to negotiations.
If you show ANY possibility that he will be in a better position for negotiations in the future without taking another half million casualties to get there, he will wait until it's a better time.
If NATO support drops Ukraine will have trouble getting anything out of Putin as they won't have the ability to make continuing the fight more painful that what Russia is willing to accept.
If you show ANY possibility that he will be in a better position for negotiations in the future without taking another half million casualties to get there, he will wait until it's a better time.
If NATO support drops Ukraine will have trouble getting anything out of Putin as they won't have the ability to make continuing the fight more painful that what Russia is willing to accept.
From NYT:
At the same time, an end to the war seems closer than ever. Donald Trump has promised to negotiate a truce quickly once he takes office in January. Given how much Ukraine depends on the United States, Trump could force Ukraine to accept a deal.
These things — the recent escalations and a potential end to the war — are related. As Russia and Ukraine prepare for a potential peace deal, they are working to improve their negotiating positions. That reality has kicked off a dangerous and urgent phase of the war, although one that could last only a few months.
Today’s newsletter will explain the recent events and what could come next.
Washington saw North Korea’s involvement as a big deal. After all, Russia has warned the West against sending any of its own troops in Ukraine’s defense. Yet Russia turned around and got outside help.
In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory. Ukraine did so for the first time yesterday, hitting an ammunition depot.
The specific missiles, known as ATACMS, do not have the range to hit Moscow. “U.S. officials do not want to see ATACMS flying at the Kremlin,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers international security. “That’s not what this is about.” Instead, Ukraine can use the missiles to weaken Russian advances and hold territory in Kursk and elsewhere.
Why are U.S. officials so cautious about how Ukraine uses these weapons? Russia’s actions yesterday offer an explanation. It declared the right to respond with a nuclear weapon to an attack by a nonnuclear nation (Ukraine, presumably) that’s supported by a nuclear-armed country (the United States). Since the beginning of the war, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has used the threat of nukes to deter Western involvement. To some extent, the threat has worked. It previously kept Americans from supplying ATACMS and fighter jets, for instance.
Putin is not actually closer to using nukes, American officials say. But the consequences of a nuclear conflict are so large — potentially world-ending — that even a tiny or slightly growing risk is alarming.
Trump has indicated that he will not offer the same level of military support to Ukraine that Biden has. He wants to end the war as soon as possible. He will likely try to force both sides to negotiate some sort of truce, even if Ukraine doesn’t regain its territory in the process.
That means Ukraine is running out of time to improve its negotiating position. If it can hold on to parts of Kursk, maybe it can trade the area for more of its eastern territory held by Russia. In other words, Ukraine’s strength at the bargaining table depends on fending off Russian and North Korean troops in the coming months.
Russia is trying to improve its own hand, too. It has pushed farther into eastern Ukraine despite staggering losses. (As of last month, the war had left 600,000 to 700,000 Russian troops dead or wounded, Western officials estimate.) Russia continues its brutal campaign knowing that every inch of land it claims now could be kept for good.
All of this adds up to a bit of a paradox: Peace may be around the corner, but the fighting could get bloodier as both sides try to position themselves for a more favorable deal.
A new phase
The war in Ukraine is escalating quickly and unpredictably. Ukraine is now using U.S.-made missiles to strike inside Russia, with President Biden’s permission. Russia has raised the threat of nuclear weapons. It has also sacrificed thousands of troops to take more territory in eastern Ukraine, achieving its largest gains in more than two years.At the same time, an end to the war seems closer than ever. Donald Trump has promised to negotiate a truce quickly once he takes office in January. Given how much Ukraine depends on the United States, Trump could force Ukraine to accept a deal.
These things — the recent escalations and a potential end to the war — are related. As Russia and Ukraine prepare for a potential peace deal, they are working to improve their negotiating positions. That reality has kicked off a dangerous and urgent phase of the war, although one that could last only a few months.
Today’s newsletter will explain the recent events and what could come next.
Ratcheting up
The recent events in Ukraine can be summarized as a series of escalations. After Ukraine lost territory on its eastern front, it opened a northern front this past summer in the Russian region of Kursk. It grabbed Russian territory for the first time in the war, and has managed to hold the land. Russia then recruited more than 10,000 soldiers from North Korea to try to reclaim the area.Washington saw North Korea’s involvement as a big deal. After all, Russia has warned the West against sending any of its own troops in Ukraine’s defense. Yet Russia turned around and got outside help.
In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory. Ukraine did so for the first time yesterday, hitting an ammunition depot.
The specific missiles, known as ATACMS, do not have the range to hit Moscow. “U.S. officials do not want to see ATACMS flying at the Kremlin,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers international security. “That’s not what this is about.” Instead, Ukraine can use the missiles to weaken Russian advances and hold territory in Kursk and elsewhere.
 |
Source: The Institute for the Study of War With American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats | By Samuel Granados and Leanne Abraham |
Putin is not actually closer to using nukes, American officials say. But the consequences of a nuclear conflict are so large — potentially world-ending — that even a tiny or slightly growing risk is alarming.
Seeking the best deal
There’s another factor behind Biden’s decision to let Ukraine strike inside Russia: the coming Trump administration.Trump has indicated that he will not offer the same level of military support to Ukraine that Biden has. He wants to end the war as soon as possible. He will likely try to force both sides to negotiate some sort of truce, even if Ukraine doesn’t regain its territory in the process.
That means Ukraine is running out of time to improve its negotiating position. If it can hold on to parts of Kursk, maybe it can trade the area for more of its eastern territory held by Russia. In other words, Ukraine’s strength at the bargaining table depends on fending off Russian and North Korean troops in the coming months.
Russia is trying to improve its own hand, too. It has pushed farther into eastern Ukraine despite staggering losses. (As of last month, the war had left 600,000 to 700,000 Russian troops dead or wounded, Western officials estimate.) Russia continues its brutal campaign knowing that every inch of land it claims now could be kept for good.
All of this adds up to a bit of a paradox: Peace may be around the corner, but the fighting could get bloodier as both sides try to position themselves for a more favorable deal.
mugatu
Ranger
"Washington saw North Korea’s involvement as a big deal. After all, Russia has warned the West against sending any of its own troops in Ukraine’s defense. Yet Russia turned around and got outside help.
In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory."
There you go, Donny. There's another reason for why do this now. Russia brought in foreign troops, we responded by removing restrictions.
In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory."
There you go, Donny. There's another reason for why do this now. Russia brought in foreign troops, we responded by removing restrictions.
You are ignoring the fact your plan is flawed already due to the losses Ukraine has suffered. US own number Ukraine has lost or wounded of 500K in a months old document released August of 2023.....how many since then? Their army ain't big enough. Faster than Russian runs out of anything troops, munitions, money, or credit you are going to have poorly or untrained old men and boys fighting the Russian army who hasn't really fought like they can yet and I'm not talking nukes. Their air force can trade plane for plane with Ukraine and have hundreds left when the Ukrainians are done. They aren't using their navy and Ukraine essentially doesn't have one 20% of Russia's subs could take full control of the water off Ukraine simply by arriving since Ukraine has no defense to them..... so if they do that in any capacity someone else has to get involved. All the talk of Ukraine's right to defend itself makes a great soundbite but the reality is they can't even with our weapons. Other armies will have to join the fight soon. A deal has to be made or Putin wins Ukraine or this becomes a larger regional conflict including our allies at best and a world war at worst....you have no strategy for when the next army joins against Russia. Ukraine doesn't have the people or resources to do what you are suggesting and that is known today. To be fair to both of us neither of us was going to write a draft to end a war on a message board this is more complex but yours is dead on arrival. So back to name calling and MAGA. So call me full donny and liken me to a Simple Jack but you have no plan. Again would you like to play poker for large amounts of money.
This all started because I said it was dumb for a senile man to escalate a war 67 days from having so power. That is a pretty sensible statement. It's sensible if he wasn't senile just simply not going to be involved in two months. The fact he isn't mentally capable of the job seems to not bother any of you which is insane. A man that can barely walk, can't talk, can't stay awake in meetings, and has "good hours" is exchanging nuclear threats and he will lose all involvement in this before the Super Bowl. And not to only point out Biden's weaknesses Ukraine is led by man who came to notoriety for playing a comical version of the countries leader as an actor and we are about to have reality show host and wrestle mania participant back in office. All it did was make a deal harder and this needs a deal fast.....this was so so stupid.
And then they respond with more escalation.....then we respond with more escalation......till when?
I'm not defending Russia I pointed out North Korea a nuclear power led by a lunatic has already joined.
I guess the choice is make life for lunatic dictators more difficult or make it easier.
The idea that lunatic dictators stop after they achieve a hostile aggression has not been born out in history.
Chechens are now fighting for Russia in Ukraine. I foresee Ukrainians fighting for Russia in Finland in the future.
mugatu
Ranger
So... turn the other cheek? Got it.
I'm glad you aren't a national leader. You'd get walked over constantly.
You escalate until someone walks away. Make it too hard to continue, provide disencentive to go forward. If you say set your last possible action short, you'll lose - only in this case it's Ukraine that loses more based on our comfort level.
So endless war that cost trillions of dollars and millions of lives. That's what it's been. Since Korea. It hasn't worked. Pick your example. The cycle has to be stopped at some point or it never ends. You can call it turning the other cheek.....I call it coming up with a way people quit slapping each other in the face.
And even if you are for continued support a guy throwing gas on the fire as he walks out isn't helping......
mugatu
Ranger
Your utopia must be a nice calm little slice of heaven. People have been fighting wars for many millenia. War is not new since Korea. The difference since Korea is countries have been supporting each other via weapons and aid vs just with troops. Do you want to go back to pre-Korean War? What'd that have? Two World Wars, Napoleon, Mongolians, Roman Empire, Persians, British and French fighting everywhere for like 400 years...
As long as a-holes are in charge of countries and they continue to invade neighbors, we won't all be able to just stick our heads in the sand next to you like a good little ostrich.
It only ends when war ceases to be profitable for the MIC. Putin wouldn't have gone in in the first place if the US wasn't being led by an incompetent boob. Here's what I don't get...why help at all if we aren't going to let them use all of the arrows in the quiver? Putin needs to be stopped but why all of the counter punching? We're doing the same thing with Israel. We're going to help you play the game but we're only going to let you use your sling shots. Until when? BB would have been done with his little skirmish by now but we insist on putting limits on the things he needs to do to win. It's insane. IMO the decision needs to be...Are we going in? If the answer is yes then we have to go in dry and deep and quickly. Then we have to realize that once we go in we have to stay..with at least some kind of presence...forever. I don't want Putin taking one more inch of real estate. I also don't want to send one more penny to the most corrupt government in the world unless we intend to finish the damn thing and get something from it. Donny is right it was a stupid (political) move. Trump will end it... most of you won't like the way he does it..and the pearl clutching will intensify.
We have never stuck our head in the sand or kept our word. It's how we all got here it has to stop sometime.
I would kick Full Donny surrender monkey's ass in a game of poker.
Your entire first paragraph is your opinion, not facts. It isn't true just because you say it is.
Your entire second paragraph is just showing your BDS.
I'm done.
I'm out.
No it's not opinion......US documents reported over a year ago that amount of soldier loss. We know the number of planes google it. We know Ukriane has no real navy including zero subs. We know Russia has more everything than Ukraine even old men and boys to fight. Ukraine cannot withstand and elongated proxy war. That isn't an opinion. Biden isn't mentally competent. Don't ask me ask his party and the special counsel of his own government. That isn't BDS.
Where did you receive your doctorate In medicine or psychology? You present no facts just your opinion . If you believe you are capable of making such evaluations then you’re the one with limited mental competency IMO
Its in a US document now available to the public.....we may not know the exact number of fighting forces for the Ukraine and Russia but consistent numbers can easily be found from multiple sources....the inspector general chose not to file charges based on memory issues and the transcript is public......his party just removed him from the ticket as a sitting president that just won a primary after he was clearly lost at a debate. You don't have to be a doctor of anything. That is all public info.
Just think how many future wars we could have stopped if we had just chosen to stop in 1939. I mean, Poland? Really? Look how many people we got killed for stupid little Poland?
You apparently,”hear what you want to hear and disregard the rest.” So if that’s how low the bar has been set, then tRump is criminally insane and just a useful idiot to everyone but the vast majority people of this country. He got the votes, but that and the Supreme Court is all he needs to overthrow our democratic republic and turn us into a fascist theocracy.
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